Screw the pundits: Bush will not win the popular vote (here's why...)

[WI_DEM]

I'm hearing lots of talking fat heads on tv saying that it is "possible" that Kerry will win the electoral college and Bush the popular vote. They said the same thing in 2000 and of course it was the other way around.

Here's why I think Kerry will win the popular vote:
California--latest poll (LA Times) gives Kerry a 18-point lead in California--58-40, Gore won the state handily by 11-points, so Kerry is running well ahead of Gore, and this state will have at least 13 million voters. If these poll numbers come close to the actual result, Kerry will win Califoria by at least 2.1 million votes.

Oregon/Washington: Most (independent) polls give Kerry a bigger edge in these two states than Gore enjoyed. Gore won Oregon for instance by only about 1%--Kerry will win it by at least 5.

New York--Kerry will win this dependably Dem state by well over a million votes.

Mass/RI--Kerry will do even better than Clinton or Gore in these dependably Dem states--Ma will probably go for Kerry by 700,000-800,000 votes.

Illinois--A big African-American turnout and nature of the state assures that Kerry will win here by more than 500,000 votes.

The South--Overall, most polls show that while Kerry is behind in the south he is running better than Gore did in several states: West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Virginia and Arkansas, for instance. If Kerry gets 42-45 percent in several southern states--that enhances the Democratic popular vote.

Put it all together, Kerry will get a huge advantage in the popular vote from California and the West Coast, New York and New England, Illinois and imo, run a few points better than Gore in the south--it will be very difficult for Bush to catch up in the popular vote in the red states he will do very well in (SD, ND, Utah, Ks, ect) because they are small.

Kerry is likely to win the popular vote, imo--and I think in the end the electoral vote as well.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. We're going to win both in a big way.

I wouldn't even lose any sleep over it.

[LisaLynne]

2. My simplistic thinking is this ...

* lost the popular vote last time (and the electoral vote, too, but with friends in high places ...). There is NO WAY more people are voting for this guy this time around. So, he's losing the popular vote again.

[TomClash]

3. Kerry would win with over 300 evs and at least 51%

. . . if everyone voted today.

But we must still work hard.

Whatever you can do, do it. And then do a little more.

[secular_warrior]

4. Democrats haven't lost the popular vote since 1988

It's much more likely for the Repubs to lose the pop vote and win the EC than for the Dems to do it. The GOP has fewer voters, but they are spread out over many states, and as a result have more weight in the EC. Dems have more voters, but they are consolidated in fewer states, and thus have less weight in the EC.

[WI_DEM]

5. very true