Election predictions

[Chef]

I went to a conference two weeks ago where one of the speakers was Prof. Larry Sabato of the U of VA. Most of you, I am sure, know of him. He wouldn’t predict the eventual winner of the race (too close to call), but did have some interesting observations.

He suggested that turnout will be closer to 60% this year. This will result in about 115 or so million votes. Polling is iffy with cell phone only users (3% to 18% depending on who you talk to) of the total, new registrants, etc.

We could have a scenario where the popular vote winner could win by 2-3 million votes (possibly Kerry) and still not get a clear electoral vote majority. This could result in no clear winner for some time. A 3% or greater win avoids these problems. Otherwise, he thought Kerry would get all of Northeast down to Maryland and the west coast. * would get the south, except Florida. Florida polling is all screwed up this year, hurricanes, etc. and may depend upon the Senate race outcome or vice-versa.

At that time he thought * would get NV, CO, MO, AZ and maybe WI and WV.

He also went into *’s blessings: incumbancy, unopposed in the primary, etc. and his cruses: lost popular vote the first time, father-son Adams Curse, and the admittedly silly four letter surname not reelected (Taft, Ford Bush). The Redskins curse also falls into this category.

You can read this any way you want. We’ll all know something soon.

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. My election prediction: Nov 26th

for when the last law suit is finally decided, in Kerry's favour.

Has anyone set up a sweepstake on DU for a date for when the winner is generally acknowledged?