Economist: The battle for the Great Lakes

[unfrigginreal]

As the race between George Bush and John Kerry turns increasingly nasty, it is slowly closing in on one particular region of the country: a cluster of northern states touching the five Great Lakes

snip

This war has many fronts—including Colorado and New Mexico in the west and, of course, Florida in the south. But the race hinges disproportionately on a cluster of northern states hugging, or touching, the five Great Lakes (see map). Not all the states are swing states: Indiana is solidly Republican, New York and Illinois are solidly Democratic, and, this year at least, Michigan looks pretty good for Mr Kerry. But the region also includes Ohio (which Mr Bush won in 2000) and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota (which Al Gore won). Together, these four states offer 61 electoral-college votes—or roughly half the total for states considered up for grabs.

And here Mr Kerry seems to have done particularly well at closing the gap. According to RealClearPolitics.com, which helpfully averages local polling results over each week, Mr Bush was clearly ahead in Ohio and Wisconsin before the debates and level-pegging, or better, in Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Now Mr Kerry is fractionally ahead in all four.

In past elections, Wisconsin and Minnesota, both left-leaning states, would have been considered a bonus for Mr Bush. But with the growing clout of suburban voters, both states have become more conservative—and Mr Bush may well need to win one of them to make up for Republican states elsewhere that are trending Democratic, such as New Hampshire.

http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3325045

[DemocracyInaction]

1. And more proof trending towards cluster fuck

I think I've finally pegged it. The "trend" is a "trend" towards a massive cluster fuck. I look at this report and am pumped up because it's saying the right things to me about Kerry closing the gap and going ahead in these critical states. And bang da boom, within 15 minutes I'll gurantee you there will be a poll that says the opposite. It's a too close to call, who the hell knows, cluster fuck right now and will be come election day. Dems have a good machine on the ground to get out the votes. Repubs have FIXED machines..........and I have a headache. Apparently those who bet with the pros (gambling) have the odds 60% in Kerry's favor. I'll stick with them because they probably have the best finger on the pulse.