Electoral-Vote.com showing a tie

[FrankenforMN]

Right now it is tied at 264-264, with Minnesota being excluded due to a statistical tie in the two day old Rasmussen Poll(This will change after Kerry's HUGE rally in Minneapolis)

However there are some good signs:
-If you trust Gallup, Kerry is up by 6 in OH
-Strategic Vision (R), only has Bush up by 3 in WI and they have Kerry up by 1 in Pennsylvania... I would probably add at least 5 points to these polls.
-Zogby only has Bush 3 points ahead in Virginia (as of Oct. 18)

If looked at closely, I see nothing but good signs from this website.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[prodigal_green]

1. Click on individual states on the map

to see the trend lines. Interesting. Virginia looks like it will go for Kerry.

[ollie3]

2. OK Minnesotans, go to your Democratic Headquarters....

The Get out the Vote campaign is in need of your help. I suggest a tithe of sorts....for every hour you spend on line, pledge to do an hour of campaign work at your party headquarters!

I'm from MN. I know there is work for you to do!

And look at the map....it all depends on US! Everything.

So eyeing Ohio or Florida on the web is not enough.....look at your own state and see what you can do to pitch in to help!

[FrankenforMN]

4. I think if i go there one more time, they will throw me out :)

[lancdem]

3. I agree

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. No, they have a final map as well

Kerry 301 Bush 237

[FrankenforMN]

6. I have seen that. His/Her methodology is very interesting

[stoptheinsanity]

7. It's now showing Bush up.

[FrankenforMN]

8. I see that...Survey USA has Iowa red : /

[ochazuke]

9. State-by-State analysis v. National Polls

The national polls make it look like a close race with a small advantage for the cheerleader chimp, but the electoral map is much more an uphill battle for him.

The real tossups now are Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida. Everything else is leaning one way or the other pretty clearly now. OK, New Hampshire is too close to call, but it doesn't matter for the purpose of my analysis, which is:

Bush must win Florida. But even if Bush gets Florida, Kerry can still win with Ohio plus just one of the other two (Iowa or Wisconsin).


(Assumption: no state splitting its electors.)