10/22 TIPP Tracking tightens again - Tie in two man race

[unfrigginreal]

3 man race
Kerry 46%
Bush 47%
Nader 2%
Undecided 5%

2 man race
Kerry 45%
Bush 45%
Undecided 11%

http://www.tipponline.com/

[Goldmund]

1. Indeed.

[Teaser]

2. That's Sassy!

You just stepped in a big pile of sassy!

[AndyTiedye]

3. And it all comes down to the Nader voters...... AGAIN!

Just like 2000 Arrrrgh!

[fugop]

11. Nah, it won't

Remember: More people seem to indicate they'll vote for Nader than actually do so when they're in the booth. Wasn't his polled number double what he actually got last time? Maybe not double, but it was more.

Read a story in the Wash. Post today that said his support has been evaporating bit by bit and going mostly to Kerry. It seemed to suggest that the support he has left is support that would never vote Kerry. So take heart.

[WI_DEM]

4. who are these people who are voting Nader when our country

and world are at stake?

[HFishbine]

5. Weird

How do undecideds jump by 6% when 2% Nader is excluded?

It seems to suggest that a certain number of Bush supporters and Kerry supporters are saying, "Oh, if Nader's not in the race, then I'm not sure."

[fujiyama]

6. So we have two polls (this and Zogby)

going opposite directions.

I should stop paying attention to polls. They are making me sick.

[Teaser]

7. Of course they're going in opposite directions.

Each days sample has a 50% chance of going either direction...we are drawing on a symmetric, gaussian probability distribution, after all...meaning the race is tied.

[lancdem]

8. But they have much in common

Bush's share of the vote is between 45 and 47 percent.

[WI_DEM]

9. that's a two point gain for Kerry since yesterday

[WI_DEM]

10. this deserves a kick