why the sudden desperation on GD:2004?

[WI_DEM]

A lot of posts today are downright pessemistic. Why? becuz Zogby has Bush with a two point lead in a tracking poll? because of THK's mild little comment about Laura? C'mon--these are blips. Most polls show the race tight. The ones which don't are definitely outliars. Realistically does anybody think Bush is 6-points ahead? not even the silly pundits.

Don't let the pundits get you down either. Remember they tried to do the same thing in 2000--most polls had Bush up and the pundits said it is likely Bush would win. They also said it might be Bush winning the popular vote and Gore the electoral!! They were wrong then and there wrong now.

30,000 cheering, enthusiastic supporters in Minneapolis last night can't all be wrong. And how about all the newspapers coming out for Kerry? Has one Gore paper gone for Schrub? No. Most editorials call Bush a "disaster" or an "inept" president. In a close election newspaper endorsments can count--remember in Iowa?

Watch the momentum shift for Kerry at just the right time--in the last week before the election. The debates did him a lot of good and when people finally come down to selecting more of the same (Bush) with the promise of a fresh start (Kerry)--we will win.

[pmbryant]

1. Last minute anxiety no doubt

We're so close, yet so far.

I posted a positive outlook, based on how the polls were all biased both in 1996 and 2000, and it's being ignored. I hope you don't mind if I plug it here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=1137799&mesg_id=1137799

--Peter

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. None here....

[tomfodw]

3. Part of it is, we don't understand why Kerry isn't WAY ahead

When the question really should be, why isn't Bush way ahead? I mean, he's the incumbent president who is presiding over the best economy in US history who saved us from the terrorists who overthrew Saddam Hussein and is turning Iraq into a shining beacon of peace freedom and democracy and who is practically Jesus Christ incarnate - and he can't get over 50% in any poll? The desperation, if any, should be all on the Republican side. And I'm sure it is.

[louis-t]

8. Don't forget the amount of money spent

$280 million * is expected to spend just to stay even with Kerry! If he's so great, effective, moral, righteous, beloved, popular, etc., why does it take that much money?

[indie_voter]

9. I agree, I am one of those who can't understand

why ANYBODY would vote for *.

I think we're going to win, but it does depress me that we have fools amongst us who can't see what a dolt * is.

Sometimes I feel as if I am in a old twilightzone episode. ;)

[Cush]

4. for me: it's nerves as well as

Corporate Media + Stupid/Uninformed People = Support for Bush

[earthside]

5. Trend to Kerry

I agree.

There is statistical and anectodal evidence that the trend is moving to Kerry.

The AP poll is just the first national head-to-head that will show Kerry moving a point or two up on Bush. And I think that for purposes of peaking on November 2, I wouldn't want to see a sudden jump in the polls for Kerry.

The 30,000 folks in Minneapolis is just amazing ... don't tell me there isn't something happening out here in real America.

Finally, at the top of my web site today www.Earthside.com is a great commentary from a Christian, rightwinger explaining why he is voting for Kerry. I think there is a "hidden" Kerry vote out there - moderate Republicans and traditional, constitutional conservatives that know they have to vote against Bush as a matter of principle.

GOTV!

[Z_I_Peevey]

14. I agree on the hidden Kerry vote.

I think Kerry Republicans will be the big surprise bloc of this election.

[lancdem]

6. I agree

Tracking polls fluctuate. I'll be more interested in what they show a couple of days before the election. The late undecideds don't break until the very end, as you say.

Also, I keep my focus on one thing: Both sides agree that whoever wins two of the following three states, PA, OH and FL, will be triumphant. Kerry's going to win PA, so that means he has to pick off Ohio or Florida, and he has a good shot at doing that, especially Ohio.

[WilliamPitt]

7. New-voter students flocking to Kerry + the Catholic vote moving to Kerry =

good news.

+ More than 80% African American vote for Kerry

+ More than 70% Jewish vote for Kerry

+ Kerry's lead with women

+ Bush's incredibly crappy approval ratings.

Step away from the ledge. Don't stop worying, don't stop working, but for the luvva God, don't jump.

[Cocoa]

10. the media's efforts are paying off

even when we know they're doing it, it's still effective at instilling a feeling of hopelessness in us.

DU is here to undo that.

[FrankenforMN]

11. Skepticism not Pessimism

I am optimistic that Kerry will win, if we do our jobs, but I will admit that I am VERY nervous about the media. They have so much control over this election just by what their leading stories are. I DO NOT trust the national media, and they have way too much power.

[LiberalAndProud]

12. Because we all smell it -- they intend to steal the WH again.

[Must_B_Free]

13. Freeper psychological ploys

[aeschylus]

15. I agree.

Hell hath no fury like a democracy scorned!

[tomfodw]

16. I don't "believe" in any thing

I don't believe in a hidden Kerry vote. I don't believe the polls are wrong. I don't believe most of the undecideds will break against the incumbent.

Too often, people use the word "believe" when what they really mean is, "I hope" or "I wish" or "I want." Belief is bullshit - show me the facts, hard cold facts, not self-delusion, not trying to wish away something just cause you don't like it.

I want Kerry to win as much as anyone on DU, but that won't make it happen. The worst thing you can do in life is fool yourself. The polls right now are not good for Kerry (they're not particularly good for Bush, either), and trying to explain that away is perilously close to the kind of detachment from reality we all criticize the president for.

I'm not saying, don't be optimistic. This race is desperately close, neither candidate can separate himself from the other, there are good signs for Kerry, and the fact that an incumbent president can't pull away is a really bad sign for Bush. But I hear a lot of unsupported and unsupportable "belief" talk on DU, and that just won't do. Sure, a lot of arguments here about how Kerry is doing better than the polls show are supported by cold hard facts, and I appreciate that. But a lot of what people say here is simply, I want = it will happen. That habit has a tendency to bite you in your butt. Maybe it really is as close as the polls show. Maybe Bush really is a tiny bit ahead. I don't want that to be true, but I didn't want the Yankees to lose to Boston either. In the end, what you or I want doesn't mean shit.

Sorry to be so harsh, but I don't want anyone building a castle in the sky and then trying to move in; or worse, advertising on DU for a roommate.

[watercolors]

17. Dem .headquarters

was out of yard signs this morning, we drove down to Melbourne,{ Fl} to get some for family and friends, They were out of them, we got some large signs and bumber stickers. They can't keep up with the demand for them! Gave the workers a nice donation for their lunch. The mood was good there.Don't give up, we are going to win this!!

[tomfodw]

19. Now this is the kind of optimism even I can endorse!

[kostya]

18. The best antidote for pessimism is to GOTV! eom

[tomfodw]

20. This too

It's a practical alternative to sitting around either despairing or fantasizing. When it's this close, every extra vote could make the difference.

[michigandem2]

21. I completely agree..lets keep this as upbeat as possible

We are so close..lets keep working to get the message out and get those people to the polls..but this is NOT looking good for Bush...it just isn't...

Sock it to 'em

[wadestock]

22. Another positive....Bush's "hard work" is getting to him

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/bush/articles/2004/10/22/on_the_stump_bush_slows_pace_to_his_liking/

On the stump, Bush slows pace to his liking

By Anne E. Kornblut and Rick Klein, Globe Staff | October 22, 2004

DOWNINGTOWN, Pa. -- The presidency may be hard work, as President Bush said several times during the first debate. But his campaigning these days appears much less so, with a relatively moderate travel schedule and an unusually narrow list of targeted travel states.

According to some Republicans, the odd schedule, which does not quite match the states where Bush's prospects are best, is reminiscent of his campaign travel four years ago, when Bush stopped in California and New Jersey in the final days of what turned out to be a closely contested race."