There may indeed be a 3% "hidden vote" for Kerry

[NewYorkerfromMass]

Nobody here is really talking about the Sid Blumenthal article in yesterday's Guardian, but I found this on kos:

Primary Cell Phone Users:
According to Blumenthal, these folks make up 6% of the population. They also split 70% to 30% for Kerry. In an otherwise tied race, the inclusion of cell users would create a 2.5% advantage for Kerry (.7 times .06, minus .3 times .06).
Newly Registered Voters:
According to Blumenthal, newly registered voters make up 7% of the electorate at this time. They split approximately 60% to 40% for Kerry. In an otherwise tied race, the inclusion of newly registered voters would create a 1.5% advantage for Kerry.

Now, these two populations overlap, and its impossible to say for sure how much so. However, we know that all major polls do not include primary cell users, so adjusting for them makes sense (give Kerry an additional 2.5% lead). Adding in a small boost for newly registered Kerry voters who are not primary cell users (maybe 0.5%) would make sense - don't forget that polling, like all statistics and sampling, is an imprecise artform and not an exact science. So next time you see a poll, give Kerry an additional 3-point lead by adding 1.5 to Kerry and taking 1.5 from Bush. Feel better? Do this in Ohio and Florida and feel even better!

http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2004/10/22/8914/8720/261#261


BTW The article was posted and linked here at DU on LBN and Editorials.

[JuniorPlankton]

1. It's all speculation

The estimates vary. Nobody really knows how many of these people out there. Nobody knows how they vote, and, most importantly, IF they vote.

My own brother, a 26 year old grad student is one of them. He wasn't registered to vote until I made him (in Maine, so it is important)

Overall, I think it's a reserve for Kerry, but I can't quantify it.

:kick:

[amber dog democrat]

2. You'd think so. Maybe it is

but I was distressed yesterday evening after helping a woman I know with moving a heavy piece of furniture. Over dinner she confessed she missed the deadline to register to vote back in September and is miffed over why there have to be so many rules about voter registration. She WOULD have voted for Kerry.

This person is a therapist. Go figure. Fortinately I think she is in a small minority.

[serryjw]

3. You are forgetting........

5% of america still does not have a phone! I know several that don't...they can't afford the deposit!

[Southpaw Bookworm]

5. And don't forget cell phones

I know several people who don't have a land line, all under-35 lefties, and use their cell as their primary number. Cell numbers aren't used for the polls. I think this is a substantive bit of Kerry supporters whose thoughts aren't being recorded by the pollsters.

[Radical Activist]

4. His new voter estimate sounds low

At least half a dozen groups have been registering new voters. Millions have been registered in swing states.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. Here's hoping they get to the polls

and their votes are counted....

[NewJeffCT]

7. sorry, don't believe it

Remember, just before the Iowa caucus, Howard Dean suddenly dropped in the poll. His spinners - pre caucus - claimed that the pollsters didn't count all those young, newly registered Deaniacs because they all used cell phones.

And, how did that caucus turn out for Dr. Dean?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. Well, it might explain Dean's "bouncing" back

He was polling around 12% and I believe he got "back" up to around 18% in the actual caucus. So maybe he had around 15% or so before and they never knew it.

[Roland99]

10. How many are there in Iowa anyway?

[tcfrogs]

11. Hey, no ripping on Iowa

I'm a native, and must stand up for my state.

Plenty of cell phones there, at least in the Des Moines area. Seemed just like Chicago to me, cell phone-wise.

[Roland99]

13. No...I wasn't ripping.

I'm just saying, Iowa is not that populous and how many youth are there that would be more likely to be totally wireless?

You'll much more in Florida, NY, OH, PA, etc. Esp. the inner-city folks where pre-pay cell phones are very popular.

[tcfrogs]

14. It's about 3 mil, with a dwindling rural population

Percentage wise, I'd guess Iowa would rank right near the middle or slightly below for cell phone usage.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

16. Iowa has a lot of colleges

must be a good 100,000 students there.

[petersjo]

22. We're really quite modern here...

Only get the horse and buggy out a couple times a year. No Iowa bashing please!

[petersjo]

21. We're really quite modern here...

Only get the horse and buggy out a couple times a year. No Iowa bashing please!

[Roland99]

8. And the undecideds are about 5-7%

All Kerry needs is 60% of them and that's enough to tip the balance.

[tcfrogs]

12. Um, Sid Blumenthal is not exactly non-partisan

Just pointing it out.

[DemFromMem]

15. Don't forget the immigrants

They often escew pollsters due to language barriers and a mistrust of people who ask personal political questions. They break 2 to 1 for Democrats. And there are more than three million new citizens sworn in since the last election. That equates to a potential extra million votes for Kerry this go around. New citizens also tend to be more interested in voting than the general populous (possibly because they've don't take their new status for granted).

[NewYorkerfromMass]

17. You remind me of the Cuban vote shift to Kerry

due to the travel bans by Bush. Chalk that up as a "hidden" Kerry vote in Florida.

[DemFromMem]

18. Mexicans are the main group to watch

You're right about the Cubans and that's great news. They're breaking about 2 to 1 for Bush this year, but that's far better than the 10 to 1 when I was growing up in Miami.

Mexicans are now well represented in every state in the country. Here in Tennessee, we have 600,000, nearly 10% of the state's population. Arkansas has a major population as well. People are surprised when they find out how large the Latino populations are in places outside of the Southwest and West.

[n2mark]

19. 3%? Not....

I truly believe there is a Kerry underground

[BillZBubb]

20. I've seen Repug talking heads admit they need a 4% poll lead

going into an election or the Democratic turnout will beat them. They know the polls are skewed to them, but they don't like to admit it.

[DuaneBidoux]

23. But the BIG QUESTION: Will they vote?