Should We Trust Gallup's Recent Ohio Poll?

[liberalpragmatist]

It showed Kerry up by 6 points in Ohio 50-44 among registered voters in a 3-way matchup with Nader included. Interestingly, with Nader in the loop, the race becomes 50-45 Kerry-Bush, and I think by 2 among likely voters, 48-47 among LVs.

So should we trust these? I think I might, just because most Gallup polls' RV samples aren't too bad - sometimes they're a little bit skewed, but they generally are more in line with other polls. It's their LV models that are way off.

[AIJ Alom]

1. If Gallup says Kerry is up by 6% in Ohio then in reality he is up by 8%

and expect Strategic Vision (hmmm wonder what the name means) to come up with a poll showing Bush up by 4% within a couple of days.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. Strategic Vision means exactly what it sounds like

you see what you want to see. Blinders required.

[trotsky]

2. Well, I don't know why Gallup would slant a poll in Kerry's favor...

so if anything Kerry might just be up by 10 in Ohio. Do you have the party breakdown of that poll versus what Ohioans identify themselves as? (Or their 2000 voting pattern?)

[unfrigginreal]

3. Gallup Sucks!

I don't have a doubt that they are understating Kerry's lead.

[lancdem]

4. No Repub has ever won the presidency

Trust the Scripps Ohio University poll out today that has Kerry up 5 among RVs and 4 among LVs.

[Hoosier Democrat]

5. Gallup is not as reputable as they used to be

This cycle, Gallup has repeatedly over-sampled Republican voters in its polls, skewing the race in favor of Dumbya.

I'd say that, if Gallup says 6%, we're probably up by 8 or 9.

[okieinpain]

6. very nice picture. they should run an ad with just that picture.