The election scorecard: Or how to tell who will win early.

[Sean Reynolds]

Unlike in 2000 I don't think you're going to see the media call a state for a candidate unless they're 100% sure that the state will actually find its way over to the candidate's electoral side.

With that said I think we'll have a good idea of where this election is going within the first two hours or so.

If Kerry picks up Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania he's going to win the election. If he picks up Ohio and Florida he's going to win the election. If he picks up Ohio and Pennsylvania he's going to win the election. If he picks up Pennsylvania and Florida he's going to win the election. Same with Bush. WHEN these three states are called it'll decide the election.

No doubt about it.

So you'll get a solid understanding of where each candidate stands, and you won't have to wait the whole night to see it. That said I'm not going to factor in the chances of it being too close to call and thus the media not calling it. But even then if the candidate has the lead throughout the 'too close to call' period you should get a feel of what is going to happen.

So just look out for those three states come Tuesday, November 2nd. If Kerry sweeps 'em all he's going to win no doubt. If he splits 'em, he's got a solid chance at winning. If Bush sweeps them he's going to win, if he splits 'em he'll have a good shot as well.

Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

The best part? Kerry pretty much leads in all three states right now (except Florida keeps changing back and forth).

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Unless it's too close to call anything

Florida might be too close again.

[Sean Reynolds]

2. Like I said you'll be able to see who's leading.

If Kerry is leading and it's still too close to call I think it'll probably go to him. Same with Bush. But again, if Kerry can take Ohio and Pennsylvania Florida may not even matter.

[Lefty48197]

3. Almost 100% true

If Kerry wins two of those three states you mentioned, then he does ALMOST lock up the election. He's going to win PA. If he wins Ohio, then the Republicans desperately need to steal some Gore states away from Kerry. Right now, it looks like the Republicans are concentrating on Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Mexico. Stealing two of those states away from us would counter a Kerry victory in Ohio, but it wouldn't be enough to counter a Kerry victory in Florida.

If Kerry loses both Ohio, and Florida, then he can still win, but our work gets quite difficult. We would need to steal Missouri, or else West Virginia AND Nevada. New Hampshire doesn't come into play in most scenarios.