best rundown of battleground polls I have seen

[montana500]

I got this from a guy over at Daily kos:




Along with job approval, Bush's share of the vote in battleground states are the most important numbers to be looking at right now. And after looking at these numbers, it becomes clear that in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, and Wisconsin, Bush has been unable to clear the 47-48% bar, which is significantly less than he needs to win.

Using the wonderful 2.004k.com, I captured all the major polls in the above states whose last sampling day was Oct. 1st or later. My aim is not to discern any trends, but to see where Bush's re-elect numbers stand in these states in the month of October, for the past three weeks. If Nader was included, I excluded him, and I rounded to the nearest integer when necessary.

Detailed analysis of the numbers below the fold... (and please recommend if you wish)

Diaries :: thirdparty's diary ::

key: Bush-Kerry - last day of poll (Pollster)

OHIO (12 polls):

The numbers here are the clearest of the bunch: Bush is stable at 47%. He's only hit 48 and 49 in Rasmussen and SUSA, and has hit 44 and 45 in Gallup and FoxNews.


44-50 - 10/20 (CNN/USA Today/Gallup)
47-45 - 10/18 (FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics)
47-49 - 10/18 (SurveyUSA)
47-50 - 10/17 (ABC News)
46-45 - 10/16 (Mason-Dixon)
47-47 - 10/18 (Rasmussen Reports)
46-48 - 10/17 (University of Cincinnati)
49-47 - 10/13 (Rasmussen Reports)
45-49 - 10/11 (Chicago Tribune)
47-48 - 10/6 (American Research Group)
48-49 - 10/4 (SurveyUSA)
48-47 - 10/2 (Rasmussen Reports)
Distribution:

49 *
48 **
47 *****
46 **
45 *
44 *

PENNSYLVANIA (10 polls):

The range is spread pretty evenly from 41%-47%, but seems to weigh more towards the top end. 47% is Bush's ceiling here. Meanwhile Kerry routinely hits 48-51%.


41-47 - 10/20 (Quinnipiac University)
45-46 - 10/18 (Mason-Dixon)
45-51 - 10/17 (SurveyUSA)
43-46 - 10/11 (Quinnipiac University)
46-47 - 10/12 (Rasmussen Reports)
46-48 - 10/6 (American Research Group)
47-49 - 10/5 (SurveyUSA)
43-50 - 10/4 (West Chester University)
41-48 - 10/4 (Franklin & Marshall College)
47-47 - 10/1 (Rasmussen Reports)
Distribution:

47 **
46 **
45 **
44
43 **
41 **

FLORIDA (13 polls):

The only 2 times Bush has been over 50 were in the first days of the month, and again, SUSA and Rasmussen were the culprits. Otherwise, the numbers are spread evenly in the 44-49% range. Bush has been able to clear 48% only in polls that are the most friendly to him (SUSA, Ras, and Mason-Dixon).


45-43 - 10/19 (Quinnipiac University)
49-50 - 10/17 (SurveyUSA)
48-45 - 10/16 (Mason-Dixon)
44-48 - 10/14 (InsiderAdvantage)
44-45 - 10/15 (University of North Florida)
49-46 - 10/14 (Rasmussen Reports)
47-47 - 10/10 (Washington Post)
48-44 - 10/5 (Mason-Dixon)
45-47 - 10/5 (American Research Group)
46-42 - 10/5 (Quinnipiac University)
47-49 - 10/4 (Hamilton Beattie & Staff)
51-46 - 10/3 (SurveyUSA)
51-47 - 10/2 (Rasmussen Reports)
Distribution:

51 **
50
49 **
48 **
47 **
46 *
45 **
44 **

IOWA (8 polls):

The SUSA 51% from yesterday looks like quite the outlier (the same poll had him at 50% in Sept., the only other time since the beginning of the race that Bush has broken 50% in Iowa). The rest of his numbers are bunched around 46-47%.


51-45 - 10/20 (SurveyUSA)
49-43 - 10/18 (Mason-Dixon)
47-47 - 10/12 (American Research Group)
47-45 - 10/11 (Chicago Tribune)
47-48 - 10/6 (SurveyUSA)
46-50 - 10/10 (Rasmussen Reports)
46-43 - 10/4 (Harstad Strategic Research)
46-47 - 10/3 (University of Minnesota)
Distribution:

51 *
50
49 *
48
47 ***
46 ***

WISCONSIN (9 polls):

The Gallup 51% number is an outlier, as no other poll this month has Bush above 48%. The numbers bunch up in two groups around 44% and 47.5%. The weirdest numbers of the lot, and look how consistent Kerry's numbers are in comparison: 47-48%.


47-47 - 10/19 (American Research Group)
51-43 - 10/19 (CNN/USA Today/Gallup)
45-45 - 10/18 (Mason-Dixon)
48-47 - 10/19 (University of Minnesota
47-48 - 10/14 (Rasmussen Reports)
43-47 - 10/11 (Chicago Tribune)
43-48 - 10/13 (St. Norbert College)
44-48 - 10/5 (Lake Snell Perry)
48-45 - 10/5 (CNN/USA Today/Gallup)
Distribution:

51 *
50
49
48 **
47 **
46
45 *
44 *
43 **

And in other "swing" states:

MINNESOTA: Bush has not broken 47% all year.

MICHIGAN: Bush has not broken 46% all year.

NEW MEXICO: last Mason-Dixon poll has Bush at 49%, otherwise Bush has not broken 47% all year.