Brand new D-Corps poll. RV - K49 b47, battleground LV - K52 b45

[swag]

via

www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com

October 23, 2004

Democracy Corps Poll: Kerry Ahead 2, Up 7 in Battleground
John Kerry Leads George Bush 49-47 percent of nation-wide LV's, according to a Democracy Corps Poll conducted 10/20-21. The Poll also found that Kerry leads Bush 52-45 percent of LV's in Battleground states and has a 50-41 percent lead among Independent LV's.

poll:

http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/Democracy_Corps_October_20-21_2004_Survey.pdf

graphs:

http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/Democracy_Corps_October_20-21_2004_Graphs.pdf

[swag]

1. Wow, b's "strongly disapprove" 40 "somewhat disapprove" 10

right direction 42
wrong track 53
don't know 6

I'm think I'm having a fuckin' a moment here.

[swag]

2. Okay, some more poll guts for the poll-thread haters who are logged on

Q.33 Now let me ask overall, do you think the country should continue in the direction Bush is headed or
go in a significantly different direction?
Total
Different direction strongly......... 49
Different direction not so strongly .. 4
Bush direction not so strongly........ 6
Bush direction strongly ............. 39
(Don't know/refused).................. 2

Total Different direction............ 52
Total Bush direction................. 45

[Quixote1818]

3. WOW!!!! ONLY 44 % voted for Gore in that poll !!!!!

Bush 50% Green Party 3% That poll would have had Gore loosing by six points but has Kerry leading by 2. That is an EIGHT POINT SHIFT to our side!!!!

[swag]

6. Some of that might be accounted for by

7% new voters included in the poll's LV electorate.

[mzmolly]

4. How accurate were they in 2000?

:shrug:

[swag]

5. Greenberg was working for Gore then.

This poll has been pretty close to the Economist Yougov polls this year, if that's any help.

Here's some stuff about the pollsters:

http://www.greenbergresearch.com/campaigns_us/

Partisans, yes.

I think a number of the internals are quite revealing.

Check out the graphs page.

Ruy Teixeira seems to like them

www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com

But of course he's also on our side.

[LonghornJack]

9. Let's Hope Their Polling is Objective

What we don't need right now is optimism without hard polling evidence. I'd like to think that Democrats would be straight and objective in their polling, and not try to fool ourselves with misleading figures.

You have to believe that the Kerry campaign needs to have reliable polling numbers to figure where they need to set up rallies, where they need to shore up support, etc. They can't use polls prepared by supporters wearing rose-colored glasses. They'd only be fooling themselves. I hope Democracy Corps used accurate objective methods in their polling operations. If they did, I have really good reason to be optimistic 10 days from now.

GO KERRY-EDWARDS!
KICK THE CHIMP OUT!

LHJ

[swag]

7. More info on Democracy Corps

http://www.democracycorps.com/

[troublemaker]

8. Wonderfuly interesting. Thanks for posting.

Always nice to get a preview of what Kerry will be saying this week. I think it will be "I will work with Democrats and Republicans to get things done with the economy and jobs"

-and-

"I am ready to deal with Iraq"