POLL: Kerry 49 Bush 47 Who did you vote for in 2000 Bush 50%!!!!!!!

[Quixote1818]

Democratic Corps Poll: Kerry 49 Bush 47
Who did you vote for in 2000 Bush 50 Gore 44 OMFG!

This is an amazing statistic because if these exact people had been contacted in 2000 it would have short changed Gore by seven points YET TODAY it has Kerry up by two!!!!!! That is an EIGHT POINT SHIFT to our side!!!! It means Kerry could actually be up by eight points!



http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/Democracy_Corps_October_20-21_2004_Survey.pdf

[DaveinMD]

1. a lot of people

don't like to admit they voted for the losing candidate.

In 1961, 70 percent of those polled said they had voted for President Kennedy. Kennedy got about 50 percent.

[Tweed]

4. Gore did win in 2000

[Quixote1818]

14. Good Point!

[Quixote1818]

6. When was Kennedy assassinated?

[DaveinMD]

8. Kennedy was assassinated

in 1963. In November.

[Quixote1818]

17. Kennedy was also a LOT more popular than Bush is now

[DaveinMD]

23. that's not the point

this is the type of question that people lie to pollsters about.

[Awsi Dooger]

25. Correct, and that was verified in 2001

A survey of who people vted for in 2000 revealed that a huge chunk of Gore voters denied supporting him. If people were telling the truth, Bush would have received 60+% six months earlier.

Actualy, if someone had proposed these two numbers to me, I would have estimated at leasr 55% of the current voters claimed to have voted for Bush in 2000.

[RafterMan]

28. But we can't generalize from that instance

Why would people lie (or misremember) their 2000 vote *if they were going to switch this year*?

Rather than making them "right" about voting with the winner, it would mean they are admitting they were wrong in 2000 and are reversing themselves for 2004.

When you add in the fact that people are reversing themselves, that undermines the whole psychological basis for the lie theory.

[Awsi Dooger]

29. All of that makes sense

It would be an extremely interesting test. Take a block of voters and ask them who they supported in 2000. A day or so later, have someone else ask the same group who they support this year, followed by who they supported in 2000.

This stuff makes me dizzy. No wonder I prefer predicting sporting events to forecasting opinions.

[CAcyclist]

26. Maybe their statistical sampling was poorer in 1961

Maybe all the old people who had voted against Kennedy had died by the time the poll was taken. ;P

[DAGDA56]

2. Makes me wonder...do you think there are ANY Gore voters from 2000...

...who would vote for * today? I mean, how many actual voters do you think have crossed over to the dark side in 4 years?

[swag]

7. You know, I think some people have bought all the post 9/11 hype

and emotionally "bonded" with Bush (as some opinion research wags have suggested) after the event, regardless of Bush's complete incompetence and failure both before, during, and after those awful events.

And I bet two or three of the "bonded with Bush" people are Gore voters.

I noted in another thread that Democracy Corps has had results quite similar to those of the Economist this year. And both polls feature large samples, three day windows, and relative stability (I guess anything is stable compared to Gallup.

But I'm no pollmeister.

I'll leave dissection of this one to Ruy Teixeira and Alan Abramowitz at www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com and Chris Bowers at www.mydd.com

[Touchdown]

3. Fix your link. Error 404. n/t

[Quixote1818]

12. Fixed

[sonicx]

5. that's normal

people lie and say they voted for the winner all the time.

[swag]

9. Is it possible that people are lying now and saying that they'll vote

for Bush because they think it's somehow unpatriotic (in time of war) to tell the truth?

[demgrrrll]

10. I have been wondering about that too. I wonder if people are afraid

to tell someone they do not know on the phone that they do not support the chimp. They are such fear mongering bullies I would not be surprised if some people have this feeling.

[clydefrand]

16. My thoughts exactly for some time now.

I've wondered all summer/fall that people don't want to tell a pollster for whom they will be voting because they may fear that the caller who obviously has their phone number and name just might be someone associated with the Patriot Act and his highness Ashcroft. And many people simply won't answer or hang up.

I think we're going to win regardless of what Mr. Teeth Novak says and all the others who are calling for it for Bush.

[Guaranteed]

18. I don't think they knowingly do it...their memory just

changes somehow.

[Career Prole]

11. Most everyone here voted for the winner in 2000.

Except for the odd freeper darting about here during the homestretch...the "dead-enders" and "Boosh loyalists".
:D

[canuckybee]

13. I actually know republicans

who voted for Bush in 2000, will be voting for Kerry this time, and admit they would lie if polled.

[Quixote1818]

15. I don't lie when polled but when I am with Republican clients I become

a God fearing Republican. It's that or risk loosing a client! I hope that dosent make me a bad person, just trying to keep food on the table.

[swag]

19. Me, I just have to shut up at work when the owners are around.

But we do have a strong cadre of Kerry voters in the office activated to raise money, share info, mobilize, etc.

With customers, one does what one must to be agreeable and to retain the business. It's a tough spot, and I hope it doesn't cause you too much stress.

[DAGDA56]

22. I always hate to use the analogy, but it sounds like Nazi Germany...

...and I myself look around the restaurant when my dad and I start talking politics (he's 75 and a rabid Kerry fan/Bush hater)...It's comments like yours and others that make me think there's a sort of intellectual underground that will only emerge on Election Day.

[Jasper 91]

20. Qiixote , it's 'Democracy' corps

Not 'Democratic' corps . A small detail , but people will think it is a poll by the Democratic Party otherwise , and think its biased .

I hope you don't think I'm pernickety , I'm not usually .:)

[fujiyama]

24. I would have dismissed them

as being a partisan poll, but I think they were very close in '00.

These guys are good. I think Carville is on their team or part of the oganization.

[skordane]

21. How Many

I just do not see how Bush's poll Numbers could be as high as they are saying. Come On. How many people that actually voted for Gore in 2000 are now going to vote for Bush. Hardly Any. Plus the Nader voters in 2000 will fall for Kerry.

[Hosnon]

27. Nader

Pround Nader voter from 2000 who is sending my absentee ballot in on Monday with a little black bubble next to Kerry/Edwards.

[newyawker99]

30. Hi MJDuncan1982!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Hosnon]

31. Thank You Much

I usually only join conservative boards to hone my skills but I need a breather.