Add these red states to Kerry's column

[Ugnmoose]

All of the following Gore lost by 5% or less in 2000 and all are very much in play this year. I think the large increase in new voter registrations, a motivated dem base, a very tepid repuke base, and repuke crossovers to Kerry should more than overcome the 5% margin. And there should be no reason why Kerry cannot hold all of the blue states.

Arkansas 6 electoral votes
Florida 25 electoral votes
Missouri 11 electoral votes
Nevada 4 electoral votes
Ohio 21 electoral votes
Tennessee 11 electoral votes
New Hampshire 4 electoral votes

This is a total of 82 votes when added to the 266 Gore received brings the total to 348.

If you want to stretch a little you can add Arizona which Gore lost by 6%.

[waldnorm]

1. Hmm . . . Update those Electoral Tallies . . .

There was a census in 2000. I know that Florida now has 27, for example.

[PermanentRevolution]

2. Not feeling optimistic about Missourri...

But I'd add Virginia to the list. It's just as close as any of these are.

[demgrrrll]

13. Tied in Missouri. I think we can do it. eom.

.

[CMO]

16. I don't know about the other states....

but I think it is still possible for Kerry to get Missouri's 11 electoral votes. I am seeing more and more people for Kerry around here...and I live in a county with a huge republican population.

[missouri dem]

15. We have a great ground campaign here.

Kerry has sent staff back and have increased the numbers of phones and we are running them 12 hours a day six days a week. The phone banks have been running statewide for 4 months. We know where damn near every Democratic voter in the state is. Now all we have to do is GOTV. The word is landslide.

[UrbScotty]

Actually, Florida has 27 and Ohio has 20 due to reapportionment

So it's actually 349.

[Longhorn]

3. When I play around with the Electoral College, I've been awarding

all of those to Kerry except Tennessee. It will be even more fun now! :D

[Ugnmoose]

6. Tennessee is in play

I know because I live here and I can tell you the Dem base is very motivated. We have registered almost 350,000 new voters this year alone. I also know several Repukes who are either sitting this one out or crossing over. My son-in-law's father who is a hard core Repuke is going Kerry this year.

[Cha]

4. I wish Colorado could be added..

I know..very wishful thinking..come on Salazar..bring it home baby!

[intheflow]

8. I think Colorado is closer than you think.

Especially if both Salazar boys win, that'll be about 1/2 the state solidly voting Dem. And Kerry's polling within the margin of error here, too.

[Dudley_DUright]

11. The fact that Kerry was there today

I think speaks to how close they think it is from internal polling. I still have hopes for CO.

[jefferson_dem]

5. All except for TN are in play to some degree this round.

In order of Kerry's chances, i would rank them like this (from better to worse) --

New Hampshire 4 electoral votes
Ohio 21 electoral votes
Florida 25 electoral votes
Nevada 4 electoral votes
Arkansas 6 electoral votes
Missouri 11 electoral votes
Tennessee 11 electoral votes

* Remember Gore made TN closer because it is his home state.

[sandnsea]

7. NV CO

More likely than MO and TN at this point I think, Clinton & Clark could tip AR. If we could just get it through these peoples heads that Bush already said he was going to do everything he's saying now and the few things he did do he FUCKED UP. How hard is that to comprehend??? Geezo.

[ochazuke]

9. Florida shouldn't be included among the red states

No matter what the standard, as long as it's about actually counting votes, Gore won. He won by an even larger margin if you add votes he would have gotten if not for voter suppression and butterfly ballots.

So, it should be no surprise if Florida goes for Kerry by an even larger margin than it went for Gore.

And if Kerry takes Florida, turn out the lights at Bush headquarters.

[tsuki]

10. Absolutely,

and we're fighting for every vote.

[LiberalFighter]

12. Like the 27,000+ voters prevented from voting?

[Lefty Pragmatist]

14. Realistically

Arkansas - no chance
Florida - 50/50, but I'm fearful of the , um, irregularities
Missouri - no chance
Nevada - looking better; 50/50
Ohio - starting to look really good, and the golden key
Tennessee - no chance
New Hampshire - looking pretty good

OTOH, we have Wisconsin, Iowa and Minny to be worried about.

[DuaneBidoux]

17. I agree completely with your take

If I were advising Kerry I would say to keep circling Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota, stopping in Ohio to go to Florida for a few days and then circle back through Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota. Any way, looping the loop as much as he can. Forget the rest for now. I think he is wasting his time in Colorado (hope I'm wrong).