Why Kerry'll win Virgina

[Kal Belgarion]

I believe that John Kerry will carry Virgina, if not in 2004, then in 2008, because of Washington, DC. Right now in DC, there's a new gentrification push starting that'll unfortunately last for several years, and it'll push many poor Democrats out of the city. Thus, there'll be more die-hard Dems in neighboring VA, ensuring a Kerry victory there in 2004 and/or 2008. This is also probably why VA looks closer in this election than it has in years past. Many displaced Dems are moving to the state.

[aldian159]

1. Hmmm

We have a similar situation in Chicago. Many of the poor, especially on the West Side, are being forced to move to the first ring of suburbs. While the people replacing them are still Democratic, the poor that used to live in the city itself are helping to convert the inner 'burbs blue.

My hometown, Des Plaines, experienced this as whites, leaning GOP, moved farther west (away from the city) and minorities moved in, helping reinforce the Democratic Party and helping us take many suburbs, the last bastion on the GOP in the collar counties, in the 2002 victory.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

2. Well...

... it's a good theory, but VA is too expensive for the people who will be driven out of DC. They will all likely wind up in Prince George's Cty in MD (MD is already an easy Kerry pickup).

I think VA will go Dem in '08 or '12 due to an enormous influx of NY, CT, and MA college grads.

[Touchdown]

3. It all depends on turnout. N/T

[spooky3]

4. They are moving to Prince George's county in already blue MD

PG is much less expensive than Arlington and Alexandria, and there isn't much public transportation in outer suburbs and may not want to live among the Repugs there.

However, there are a lot of other demographic shifts going on that favor Democrats.

[Vadem]

5. I feel he will win in 2004---people are sick and tired of what the repubs

have offered us since Shrub has been in charge. Kerry in 2004!!!!!\

[mdguss]

6. Yes and no:

I know northern Virginia. I still think it's possible for Kerry to win Virginia. But I also think if Kerry wins in Virginia, he'll be winning everywhere.

Virginia is close to changing towards a moderate, Democratic-leaning state. The growth along the I-95 corridor has brought in more middle-class people. They may vote Republican or Democratic. Loudon County's explosion in growth has brought it more towards the Democratic column. Fairfax county is pretty much a moderate Democratic-leaning county. Alexandria and Arlington are some of the most Democratic areas in the state. These areas are growing--gaining a population that is more Democratic-leaning. As they do grow, northern Virginia begins to off set the conservative tidewater area (Norfolk/Hampton Roads--home of Jerry Falwell's University). High turnout in Richmond could eventually tip the state to a Democrat running for president. I don't think that is going to happen in this election.

As of now, Kerry would have to get somewhere around 40 percent in the rural areas of the state (Roanoke, Blacksburg, etc). Get a large margin in the city of Richmond and the northern Virginia D.C. suburbs. Still, I think the Hampton Roads and the Richmond suburbs are conservative enough to allow Bush to eek out a narrow victory.

It's basically two Democratic population centers versus two Republican population centers. At this point, I think Bush will win Virginia. But the people who live there should absolutely work as hard as they possibly can to bring the state more into the Democratic camp. And you never know, it might end up in our camp this year.

PS--This is in no means an endorsement of the unbridled growth in Northern Virginia. It's just an analysis of what the population boom as meant to the state's electoral equation.

[autorank]

7. Love NY (live there 10 years) but there are other reasons VA is for JFK

Moving from DC to Northern Virginia suburbs and expecting a deal on housing is like moving from the upper West Side to Scarsdale looking for cheaper housing. It's all pricey here. Northern Virginia has subsidized housing strategically placed just so low income families who work at lower paying jobs can live close enough to the jobs to show up!

The reason Kerry has a chance in 2004 and will win every year there after is the high percentage of educated people here. Northern Virginia is at least 30% of the state's total population. Fairfax County, the heart of Northern Virginia, has a population consisting of 85% college graduates. Recent polls show a strong relationship between Kerry support and educational attainment. As a result, it's the 'brains' in VA that will deliver big for JFK. The 'poor Democrats' here are also going for Kerry. What an alliance, the poor and the highly educated!

Virginia Rocks!!! Some day we'll be as Democratic as New York (a great state!!!)

[RevCheesehead]

8. I would suspect a number of CIA's to go to Kerry, too

Many have posted at how angry the CIA is at shrub. Don't know where they all live, but I would suspect Northern VA to be likely. Plus, aren't there a lot of military as well?

[autorank]

13. CIA, USGS, NSA,TSA,FAA,NIMA,DOE: We're alphabet city.

Oh, and the Pentagon. When you subtract the neocons and other political appointees, Northern Virginia is full of Federal employees who know *sucks. The balance are internet, software, and other tech folks who are leaving their reflexive Republican voting pattern based on *'s crappy economic leadership. He will not do well in Northern Virginia.

[Fluffdaddy]

9. Win in VA ? .............Please wake up you are dreaming

Not going to happen

[soothsayer]

10. watch and see!

spoilsport

[The River]

11. Maybe It's You Who Has Been Sound Asleep?

and missed the fact that both the
Roanoke paper AND the Virginia-Pilot endorsed Kerry?
When was the last time they endorsed a Dem for Prez?
With the Washington Post's endorsement in NoVa, our major
population centers are covered. Richmond goes Dem despite their
very conservative paper's * endorsement. We have a Democrat for
a Governor. Virginia IS in play.
Now, go back to sleep

[kimchi]

12. Can I get an AMEN!

Okay, so NOVA is definitely dem area. I still see a lot of apathy and faux patriotism in the Shenandoah Valley.

I'm cautiously optimistic. I saw a woman in Madison asking everyone at the grocery story if they had registered to vote. Madison is beautiful but nowhere, north of Charlottesville.

IF the votes are counted, (and I keep hearing how we have a ton of lawyers and 5 jets) Kerry can win VA. And probably NC, too.

I've been convinced for a long time that Kerry is way more popular than Bush, and people are anxious for a change (as evidenced by the number of new voters)--even those who won't admit it.