The "Big 3" State Conventional Wisdom: (OH, PA, FLA)

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

The old Conventional Wisdom (in the media) before this end phase of the campaign seemed to focus on these 3 states. With an assumption that most of the Gore states would stay Dem, winner of 2 out of 3 would win.

PA looks like it's starting to slide firmly into our grip. OH appears to be trending that way too. It's starting to look very likely that K/E will win at least two and possibly three of the "Big 3".

Now the "Conventional Media Wisdom" seems to be changing. The media, and shrubbie's campaign, seems to be talking up WI, Iowa, MN and even MI more as it seems more and more likely (fraud and voter supression nonwithstanding) that they are losing the old "big 3" strategy as Ohio is going increasingly "all wobbly" for them. Close polls in most of these states make it seem that a variety of scenarios are possible. But the GOP money can't be everywhere, all over these states, can it? Doesn't Dem "passion" to evict shrubbie give us an edge in the non money related GOTV factors, feet on the ground canvassing, etc.?

All this talk of these new scenarios, moving progressively further and further West, feels to me like Jefferson Davis moving his Confederate States of America government by rail Westward as the Union armies converged. And does it mask the weakness of shrubco in some of their Eastern strongholds like VA/TN/NC?

If K/E wins all 3 of the "big 3" it's over. If he wins 2 including FL, then it's likely all over. If he wins PA and OH only, then other scenarios involving WI, MN, IA make it more possible for shrub to win taking other old Gore states.

It's a bit confusing to me. Can anyone help make it more clear please? Is the old "Big 3" reasoning, previously pimped so heavily, no good anymore?

[tedoll78]

1. The big 3 reasoning looks pretty good to me.

MN and WI appear to be coming home to Kerry right now. Iowa looks dead-even, but we're blowing the GOP outta the water in early voting. (A new poll out today in Iowa shows it to be a Kerry 47-Bush 46 race.)

Here's a link to the Electoral Map:
http://www.grayraven.com/ec/

You can pretty much judge for yourself after playing with the numbers for a bit.. cheers!

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

2. Thanks, I'm always on the lookout for good online election map tools.

[tedoll78]

5. No problem.

I'll probably be spending a LOT of time there in the next 10 days.

Wait.. 9 days..

Midnight voting at Dixville Notch, NH begins in just 216 hours - wow!

[featherman]

3. Bush is in trouble trying to get to 270

His campaign team knows it. They are professionals after all and they can read the map and their own internal polling. They are flailing about right now trying to put together a winning strategy but it is not looking very good with PA likely out of reach, OH moving steadily to Kerry, and FL no better (and probably worse for them) than 50-50.

The Gore states + NH gives Kerry 264. Add in Ohio and he has a winning 284. I think the Bush electoral strategists know now that they need to pray for a win in FL and flip IA and WI to have a shot. Everything else being equal this would drop Kerry to 267 and barely give Bush the win at 271.

Perhaps this is their most realistic shot at this point but not a very good one. It also means they absolutely have to hold wobbly "red" states like NV, AZ, CO, WV, AR, and maybe others.

Bush has a lot of electoral difficulties. Kerry is currently in a very strong position by moving ahead in OH. I would rather be a smiling DEM strategist at this point than a GOP one.

[jefferson_dem]

4. The scenarios are laid out nicely here -

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=1144852

[blackcat77]

6. I see Kerry with 267 EV if he wins Ohio

Bush would then have to sweep IO, WI, MO, AR, AZ, NV, CO and FL to win.

I can see him winning some of them but not all. The odds are just too steep.