Biggest Bang for buck to Travel for GOTV: Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada

[DuaneBidoux]

Hitting the streets: How much do you affect the election by getting out the vote? Also, where are your efforts most valuable? To help guide your efforts, here is a synthesis of previous posts. Once you decide, I recommend contacting your local Democratic (or Republican) organization or America Coming Together.
I copied this from this incredibly bright guy from Princeton who calculates everything. His website address is at bottom. Fascinating reading, and a guide to the best action.

If you want to travel someplace to have the biggest impact where should you go?

This question can be answered by calculating how much the Electoral College win probability is changed by one person's vote. This affects where you should go because as an individual, you can only get out a finite number of votes. Today the best states to go to are Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, and Florida. Nevada, while small, is on the list because it is a near-tossup and relatively few voters per electoral vote. Here is a case study. If you are a New Jersey resident, your vote has some value, but it is low since the state is very likely to go Democratic by a substantial margin. In contrast, driving a voter to the polls in Pennsylvania is worth nearly 300 times as much. If you go to Ohio each vote is worth even more, over 500 "jerseyvotes." The top states are IA (686 jerseyvotes), OH (528), NV (508), FL (372), NM (304), WI (295), PA (295), MO (199), AR (151).

Bias analysis: The potential effects of differential turnout, splitting undecided voters, or systematic polling bias are as follows. The baseline from which bias is defined is decided voters only. Decisions by undecided voters and get-out-the-vote activities on Election Day will be major determinants of how large this bias effect is.

5 points towards Kerry: Kerry 349 EV, Bush 189 EV, Kerry win 100%.
4 points towards Kerry: Kerry 333 EV, Bush 205 EV, Kerry win 99.98%.
3 points towards Kerry: Kerry 316 EV, Bush 222 EV, Kerry win 99.4%.
2 points towards Kerry: Kerry 301 EV, Bush 237 EV, Kerry win 93%.
1 points towards Kerry: Kerry 282 EV, Bush 256 EV, Kerry win 72%.
no swing (decideds only, flat turnout): Kerry 267 EV, Bush 271 EV, Kerry win 39%.
1 points towards Bush: Kerry 247 EV, Bush 291 EV, Bush win 87%.
2 points towards Bush: Kerry 237 EV, Bush 301 EV, Bush win 98%.
3 points towards Bush: Kerry 221 EV, Bush 317 EV, Bush win 99.8%.


Although the calculation is unbiased, I am not. I am a Democrat. To see a list of races I consider critical, see my ActBlue page. My advice to all voters (including Republicans) is the same: Go to battleground states. Register voters. Make phone calls and knock on doors (a very effective strategy) to canvass for voters. Vote absentee or vote early (online resource), and on Election Day, work to get out the vote.


The site is <http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html#wheretogo>