Many expert prognosticators are saying presidential race will not be close

[kentuck]

Because, in recent history, the incumbent usually wins by large margin or the challenger wins by large margin. If we look back to several elections, we see that this theory actually has merit. LBJ was incumbent in 1964 and won about 65% of the popular vote. Nixon won in close race in '68 but the office was open. In '72, in re-election, he won in landslide. In '76, Carter won in close race when the office was open. In '80, Reagan won by large margin over the incumbent. Same in '84 as incumbent. Bush won in '88 in open seat but it was not a landslide. In '92 Clinton won as challenger with a good margin, considering third Party candidacy of Ross Perot. Won more comfortably as the incumbent in '96. The seat was open in 2000 and again it was a close race - the closest in history.

Now, if we put George W Bush into the equation as the incumbent, and judging from the lessons of history, he will either win big or he will lose big. Very seldom is it a close race when the incumbent is running. However, few people believe Bush will win in a landslide with his negatives so high in the polls. And judging from recent history, John Kerry may be the candidate that wins by a large margin. This is just a study of recent elections and does not necessarily mean that Kerry will win in a landslide or that he will even win. But the numbers are in his favor.

[Joylaughter]

1. I pray for a big margin

to eliminate the question of crdibility and for the mandate Kerry could use to really bring this nation together.

[libbygurl]

2. Amen. I just fear the chaos that will be perpetrated by the Republicans

post-election. Judging from their behavior these past 4 years, they won't be yielding so meekly to any Kerry victory.

[fishnfla]

3. Bush's advantage as incumbant is nil

because he has such a crap record. He will go down as the weakest president in modern history. If the quagmire in Iraq drags on,and the economy tanks into a recession, he will go down as the worst president in modern history.

He blew it, bigtime, after 9/11.

[soothsayer]

4. He blew it so much we HAVE 9/11

Vacationing and ignoring bazillions of warnings. Mebbe with a different prez there would have been no 9/11.