Why are these East Coast idiots writing off Arkansas?

[Radical Activist]

Ok, it came up on one of the morning shows. Clinton thinks a big GOTV effort among African-Americans can win Arkansas, but the Kerry campaign doesn't think so. Frankly, Arkansas has to be one of the easiest states for Kerry to pick up IF the campaign had put in a real effort there.

I think there are a lot of campaign strategists from the east coast who think any Southern state must be for Bush. Never mind that Zogby has showed Arkansas tied for 5 months. The east coast party establishment are out of touch.

Let's look at the numbers.
30,000+ African American and Latino voters registered in Arkansas by Project Vote and ACORN this year. They're also doing a big GOTV effort in African-American precincts.

Nader is not on the ballot this time. Just half of Nader's voters in 2000 would equal another 30,000 votes for Kerry.

That's all we need! Bush won by less than 60,000 votes in 2000. Kerry doesn't need to win over a single person who voted for Bush in 2000. He just need high turnout of Democrats and half the people who voted for Nader.

Arkansas will probably go for Bush by less than 3% this year and on the day after the election everyone on the Kerry campaign will realize what a mistake they made by not making a serious effort there. I truly hope this election is not lost because we were short 6 electoral votes that could have been easily won in Arkansas.

[w4rma]

1. President Clinton was governor of Arkansas for many years. They knew him

very well. But this year, President Clinton is unable to campaign much for anyone because of his recent heart surgery.

[Radical Activist]

3. They're sending him to two other states

supposedly he wants to go to Arkansas, but the Kerry camp wants him in other places.
Stupid, stupid, stupid.

[movonne]

2. Well I don't know why ... but I guess this last push has to be these

swing states...money and time has to go there..

[Radical Activist]

4. Does being tied in the polls make it a swing state?

They have been within the margin of error for months. On the other hand, Kerry has had a strong lead in Oregon and Washington for a while now. They were only close in 2000 because Nader got such a large vote. Those are not swing states like Arkansas is.

[gottaB]

5. What about General Clark?

What's he up to? Is he popular in Arkansas?

[Radical Activist]

13. He's popular among Democratic activists and leaders

in Arkansas. But the average person on the street doesn't know much about Clark and has never met him. He's been out of the state for too long. Clinton could do it if they let him.

[Bok_Tukalo]

6. I don't understand this one either

I realize they have better methods than my mere anecdotal evidence but ever since around Easter, my experience in Arkansas has shown that state to be ripe for Kerry poaching. Certainly as much as Colorado and Arizona.

[Radical Activist]

16. I'd say much more so than CO or AZ

African-American voters in Arkansas are pissed off and motivated. Gore's mistake was ignoring those voters in Arkansas in 2000 and I would hate to see us lose by repeating it.

[stray cat]

7. Arkansas and the NRA

My mom is in Arkansas and according to the polls there, the only issue they care about is keeping their guns.

[Pepperbelly]

20. horseshit!

I live in Arkansas and have lived here my entire life, except for those years I spent in the Navy, and your Mom's take is WAAAAAY off.

I have been involved in Democratic Party politics and the Arkansas electorate since 1968. This is a toss-up and not resolved by a C.W. aside.

[democratreformed]

25. Where, in Arkansas do you live? Here in central Arkansas, I can assure

you that I am hearing it more and more from those families (lower to middle class) who SHOULD be voting Democrat. It is driving me crazy.

[Pepperbelly]

31. Little Rock area ...

and I hear it from no one.

What I am hearing about is MONEY and Bush's failure to nurture a viable economy.

[democratreformed]

24. Sadly, this is true for many, many Arkansans. My hubby's family is

nutty about this. We have been trying to make them see that this is a non-issue and just plain silly.

[sandnsea]

29. Yeah but listen to this

My bil, from AR, was here a while ago. Real Bush fan. A story about a kid shot with a gun came on. He said, "that's the parent's fault". I'm sure he fully expected me to go into an anti-gun rant. I didn't and we ended up having a good talk on gun responsibility. They are reachable, easily, at least enough to win the state. It's true the DC Dems just do not understand rural America at all. I've tried to get them to understand for over a year now. A government health clinic in every county is prime. That's what Bush is proposing and THAT is government health care. But the campaign just doesn't get it, rural America would flip out. They should be all over it and for whatever reason, they just let Bush rant on and on about "government run health care". Aaargh!

[democratreformed]

33. We've been working on the women. They're those "I listen to my man

types". Also, my dad brought this up to me a couple of weeks ago. He has been convinced NOT to vote for Bush for three years. Then, all of a sudden, he says "The only thing I don't like about John Kerry is that I think he might want to take our guns away" (He subscribes to the NRA mag). I said "Oh, don't tell me you're going to fall for that old Republican bullshit line!!" Then I told him - "I'm a Democrat and I WON'T put up with them taking our guns away. BUT, I don't see the harm in have restrictions on who can own them and how they get them, etc." He listened too. There was another guy in the office with us at the time - he's a long-time Dem. too. He was saying "Yeah, that is just bull" (that they're going to take guns away).

We have made very little progress with my hubby's family (sister, bil, and their children). They're just hell-bent on believing it and thinking it's more important than other things. It's like my hubby said today - "How long have they been supposed to take our guns away?" I said "Oh, for the last 30 or 40 years, at least." He said "Yeah, see there - it really is bull."

[Silver Gaia]

40. Yes, AR and the NRA...

My family lives in Arkansas. I got a call from my brother today asking me to try to talk to Mom. Dad is a gun collector, and an NRA member and there's no changing his mind. But Mom had told me she was voting for Kerry, so I figured that at least she was going to cancel out Dad's vote. Not so, said my brother. She's changed her mind. So, I do my daughterly/sisterly duty and call my Mom. I ended up being yelled at, told to NEVER bring up politics with her again, and that I am full of propaganda. My Mom has NEVER talked like that before! She hates Kerry, and hates his wife more. They are just rich Yankees... blahblahblah. I felt like my Mom had been taken over by some reich-wing brainwashing project. I was horrified. This woman was not my mother. So, there you go. If this is any indication of what's going on in Arkansas, yeah, we're in trouble there.

[Blue_Roses]

8. Arkansas has been working hard on the ground

and there is alot of work still going on up until election day. There are streets--not just houses--but streets that are loaded with Kerry signs. Arkansas started voting Monday and I waited an hour to cast my vote. Arkansas is definitely in play.

[Radical Activist]

10. Yes, it is in play

but no television ad buys have been made. I really think too much of the Democratic leadership is from the east or west coast. They are out of touch with the south.

[TheFarseer]

14. I agree with that

It just shows that East coast/West coast democrats are not the same animal as Midwest/Southern Democrats. Speaking in general of course.

[Hog lover]

38. DNC ad quoting Shrub promise to the middle class

then listing promises broken was running tonight - don't remember what network. So, even if campaign proper is not running ads, there are some ads appearing.

[TheFarseer]

9. I completely agree

Arkansas coupled with NH and the blue states would win this thing! The only thing I can think of why they are not campaigning/advertising there is to keep bush ads out too and let events play themselves out. It might be a good idea to get Clinton or Clark in there at the last minute so bush can't react.

I think it's about 50/50 we win Arkansas right now.

[Clinton Crusader]

11. Saw somewhere this AM Clinton desp. to go to ARK...

but no firm data if he actually will. IF, BIG IF, he feels up to it, he should def. make the trip. I think ARK could go blue...

:kick:

[against all enemies]

12. If Arkansas had 20 electoral votes, Clinton would be there.

It's all about more bang for your buck now.

[hatrack]

37. Then by the same logic, why the Iowa obsession?

The Hawkeyes have exactly one more electoral vote than Arkansas, and Iowa lacks a popular former two-term president/multi-term governor famous for his common touch and speaking ability.

But Kerry (like Bush) can't seem to spend enough time in Iowa. Is it because Gore won it in 2000? Maybe, but he didn't win it by very much - about 4,400 votes as I recall.

I think that a one-day swing through Arkansas would be well worth the investment, assuming if the Big Dog's health is up to it.

[IowaGuy]

39. I agree...

but before you all start getting real critical here, remember that Arkansas has not exactly rolled out the welcome mat for JK...If memory serves me correctly, I seem to recall in the primaries Arkansas went for Wesley - fair enough (and the buzz then was Wesley was put in the primary campaign by the Clintons to take out Kerry) , but it has just been recently, that it looked like JK had a chance in Arkansas. He's got to put his money and effort where his chances look the most realistic - I've volunteered for this campaign since the beginning, and one thing I've seen is the management of it is pretty opportunistic....now that they see there is a chance (and kudos to you guys for the hard work to get it to that point), I'm sure they'll find a way to get there.

[BJ]

15. It's the kind of thinking behind the senatorial race here, in Iowa.

The state Democratic Party is putting all its eggs in two baskets: Kerry's election and my U.S. Representative, Congressman Leonard Boswell re-election. They've totally ignored the race for US Senate nearly giving incumbant Repiglican Chuck Grassley a pass.

I thought Grassley was vulnerable this year because all the brou-ha-ha about his strong ties to big pharmiceuticals and the heath care lobby. But, no.

Yesterday a Des Moines Register story told of the lopsided US senatorial campaign. Art Small was the only Democrat willing to be the sacrificial lamb, and he came out of retirement to be so.
Thanks to The Register, here's their respective resumes:
Charles Grassley
PARTY: Republican
RESIDENCE: New Hartford
AGE: 71
EDUCATION: Bachelor's degree, University of Northern Iowa; master's degree, University of Northern Iowa
CAREER: Farmer; sheet metal shearer, 1959-61; assembly line worker, 1951-61; member Iowa Legislature, 1959-75; member U.S. House, 1975-81; member U.S. Senate, 1981-present.
FAMILY: Married to Barbara Grassley; five children
CHURCH: Baptist
ON THE WEB:
www.grassleyworks.com
Art Small
PARTY: Democrat
RESIDENCE: Iowa City
AGE: 71
EDUCATION: Bachelor's degree, Bowdoin College, Brunswick, Maine; master's degree in English literature, University of Iowa; law degree, University of Iowa
CAREER: U.S. Army Security Agency; legislative assistant to U.S. congressman, 1965-66; member, Iowa House, 1970-78; member, Iowa Senate, 1978-86. Has worked as a lawyer; director of survey services for Westinghouse Learning Corp.; printing business owner; and owner of Legislative News Service.
FAMILY: Married to Mary Jo Small; three children
CHURCH: Catholic
ON THE WEB:
www.artsmallforsenate.com

Based simply on the resumes, Small is better qualified. Grassley's nothing but a career politician but he's popular with "the farmers" and The Register. So rather than fight, the state Dems concede even before a vote is cast.

[Coyote_Bandit]

17. Don't Count Them Out

Because of its small electoral vote count Arkansas is not used to getting a lot of attention in presidential elections. But don't count them out.

They will take notice of Clinton's efforts on Kerry's behalf. Many of the long-time residents of the sate have deep loyalties to the Big Dog. Many of them will be reminded of his efforts because the Clinton library in Little Rock is scheduled to open shortly after the election and is currently getting some press.

I grew up in Arkansas and continue to have family and friends who live and work there. I think I posted earlier that my sister-in-law who has previously been very active in Republican politics has not supported Bush in any way during this election and doesn't like him. I also know several senior citizens who live there who are financially well off that do not like Bush and will not vote for him.

A lot of people there really like John Edwards. I think it would be great if he could take a day and swing through Fayetteville, Fort Smith and Little Rock. I realize that is not likely - but I think it might well be sufficient to put Kerry over the top there. Since this is a state that is used to being largely ignored in presidential elections an advertising push - even a small one - might make a difference there.

The northwestern part of the state is more heavily populated and more prosperous than any other part of the state except Little Rock. They do tend to be very independent and really they do not align well with any of the surrounding geographic areas. My concern would be that much of the population growth is the result of influx of Wal-Mart vendors and support staff. But the area also hosts a significant university and a large hispanic and asian population.

I think the vote will be close but I would not be surprised if Kerry takes Arkansas.

[Pepperbelly]

21. My take on the general election in Arkansas differs from yours in details

although not in flavor. :D

Arkansas' 4 congressional disticts will tell the tale and it is ALL about turnout.

The 1st, 2nd, and 4th districts are all heavily Democratic. The only district that is gop is the 3rd district, comprising rougly the Northwester quadrant of the state. And it is more heavily gop than the other 3 are Democratic.

The trick in Arkansas is to get sufficient Democratic turnout in the 3 Democratic districst to overcome the gops in the other. Bill Clinton was a master of doing this. So is every statewide Democrat which includes several past US Senators, current US Senators and others.

Arkansas is doable.

[Coyote_Bandit]

28. Completely agree

...that NW corner of the state is getting too wacko big business wal-mart lover fundie conservative republican.

It's really too bad. A lot of the long time residents there really hate what the "progress" has done to their hometowns.

[jerryster]

18. Some good news for you

I agree that they should make more of an effort there. However, I have been regularly checking Time Mag's website of battleground states. The last 3 times I gave Bush AR based on the polls cited at the site. I went this morning and I moved AR into my too close to call column. Kerry has definitely closed the gap there. The other good news is it appears Kerry can take CO,NM, and NH. So hang in there in Arkansas. It ain't over!

[Pepperbelly]

19. Something that not everyone knows ... Senator Bumpers, Rodney Slater,

Wes Clark, and many, many others have been raising money for ads in Arkansas produced by Arkansans to win over the state. Those citizens sense that victory can be accomplished here and they have put their money and effort into that end.

Anecdotally, I livfe in north Pulaski county and work in Faulkner County. In this area, for a long time, all I saw was Bush signs. But over the last two weeks, the Kerry signs have been cropping up and now seems damned near even. This part of the county is usually gop but not so much this year.

I am even seeing significant Kerry signage in Faulkner.

[Blue_Roses]

22. I live in Faulkner country and I definitely am seeing many more

Kerry signs. Remember too that we have lost quite a few soldiers in Iraq from here and parents are mad.

[sandnsea]

30. No Pulaski County

My family is in Cabot. My sil lives there and is totally anti-Bush and anti-war. Surprised me. If those areas are split, then Arkansas looks very good for sure!

[Kammer]

23. Sunday Headlines Fort Smith paper

Clinton could make a real difference.

[swag]

26. We're going to win Arkansas

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1154796

GOTV!

[Johnny 99]

27. I'll get flamed for saying this

but it's the same kind of northeastern elitism that we've seen for years - who cares about the south, they are a bunch of dumbass redneck hicks, they're illiterate racist morons, et cetera, et cetera. Too many in the national party are buying into the idea that we don't need the south for that reason, when, in fact, the south is ripe for the plucking.

[javadu]

34. I Am From Missouri, I now Live in Arkansas and

No flaming from me.

Why does Missouri get so much candidate attention?????

The ONLY reason for the extra attention that Missouri gets is that it has more electoral votes.

Missouri has 2 rethugs (really strident and nasty ones) in the senate.
Arkansas has 2 dems.

Arkansas has a much better chance of going for Kerry than Missouri does. Moreover, in an election as close as this one supposedly is (I am hoping for a landslide), Arkansas small number of electoral votes matter.

Nevertheless, I think Missouri gets all of the attention because the state does not have the southern stereotypes associated with Arkansas.

With just over a week until the election, I am in no mood to linger on these criticisms, but, as soon as Kerry is president, I will be on this bandwagon. The South is not as solid rethuglican and everyone assumes and, as you said, it is ripe for picking.

[humanbeing]

35. well..

I ain't gonna pretend to be an expert in these things, but looking at what's going on, I can't totally condemn the national party. The numbers show reasons for optimism, so they seem to have been doing things right.

It's easy to have a chip on your shoulder and chalk it all up to elitism and snobbery, but that in itself is a stereotype, isn't it?

[Radical Activist]

41. decision making based on stereotypes

is what we've seen from the east coast leadership of the party. You are exactly right.

[fujiyama]

32. I think the campaign

originally tried targetting AR as one of the possibilities. I remember early on they tried LA, VA, and a few other southern states. Then they started cutting the amount spent in those states.

Part of the problem has been the closeness of the upper midwest states - IA, WI, and MN...New Mexico is also extremely close. I think the campaign decided they'd have an easier time defending these Gore states rather than going for states that Bush won. Also while AR was really close over the summer, it started opening a lead for Bush right before the convention and until recently hasn't closed.

I think you're right in that AR is more likely than CO and AZ, but I think the campaign stopped focusing as heavilly on AZ. The campaign has seemingly believed it has a better chance in the southwest (CO, NV, NM) than the south.

[Hog lover]

36. New poll = 48% each dead heat

Election Research Associates

http://www.softcom.net/webnews/wed/by/Apresidential-polls-glance.RiKd_EOM.html

[dolstein]

42. Have you ever worked for a campaign?

If you had worked for a campaign, you'd realize that a campaign makes decisions based on their OWN polls, not on the polls that are published in newspapers. We have no idea what the Kerry campaign's own internal polls are showing about Arkansas. I wouldn't be so quick to second guess the Kerry campaign based on published polls.

In addition, not only do we not know what the Kerry campaign's internal polls are saying about Arkansas, we don't know what their internal polling is telling them about states like Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, etc.

The fact of the matter is that any campaign in a race this close is going to have to make some difficult choices. You blast them for apparently writing off Arkansas (although we don't have any real hard evidence about how much, if anything, the campaign or the DNC is allocated to GOTV operations in Arkansas), but you have no idea what the trade off would involve. Does it make sense to take resources away from, say, Ohio or Wisconsin, and invest those resources in Arkansas?

[Radical Activist]

43. Have you ever worked on a campaign in Arkansas?

I have, and there's a lot you can't tell from a poll.

And yes, it does make sense to do more in Arkansas if it takes resources away from longer shot states like Colorado and Missouri. It's very sad when I meet party leaders and strategists from the east coast who assume Arkansas is going Republican and don't even look at the numbers long enough to validate their "conventional wisdom" about the South.