Rasmussen Tracks Toward Kerry, Zogby Moves Away.......

[louis c]

In a strange turn, Scott Rasmussen, the Repuke has a 3 day national tracking poll which shows a substantial shift to John Kerry. On Oct. 22, he had the race 49.1% for Bush to 45.9% for Kerry. Yesterday (10/23) he had it 48.0% for Bush to 46.7% for Kerry. That was a pick-up on nearly 2 full points (1.9%). Today, that movement continues with Bush down to 47.6% and Kerry up to 47.2%, a one day gain of nearly one full point (0.9%).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

John Zogby, the Democrat has polled two successive days of strong Bush movement. Today he has the 3 day tracking of the same days as Bush 48% to Kerry 46%. He states that Bush had a single day of 49%-46% yesterday and 50% to 43% today. That would tend to be the opposite trend to Rasmussen.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=903


My point is when I post Rasmussen numbers which move in Bush's direction, DUers are all over his motives, and cite Zogby as more reliable. You see, I feel both of these guys are in the same boat, and are trying to be fair, regardless of their bias. After all everyone who has a brain has some bias. The important thing is to recognize it, set it aside, and make an objective evaluation based on the most reliable information.

Hang on to your seats, this is going down to the wire. But in the end, Kerry will win by a margin that cannot be contested. It won't be a mandate, mind you, but it will be by enough that there will be no doubt who really won.

All the data, everywhere from everyone should tell us on thing, this election is up to us. Who wants it more, who will work harder, who will get their votes out, and who needs it more. All those questions can be answered in one simple word, "US".

[Pirate Smile]

1. Thanks louis. We always appreciate your information. It is

looking good.

[mvd]

2. I still question if..

Rasmussen will put Kerry ahead nationally, and some of his state numbers seem suspect. I do like Zogby more, but maybe he just had a bad sample right before the push of election day. I have a feeling all the pollsters having Bush ahead at the end will have egg on their faces.

[Clinton Crusader]

3. Zogby was dead on in 2000 (and I think ) 96....

so any * movement in a positive direction makes me very VERY effin' nervous..

:kick:

[mvd]

5. I'm not nervous with all the other news out

We'll have to wait and see, but I think we're in good shape. :hi:

[Quixote1818]

9. Isnt he using different meathods this year? Internet polling?

[tritsofme]

25. That's only for his state polls

And I take them with a grain of salt.

His national polling is nothing to sneeze at.

[Kahuna]

30. Zogby has changed his methodology. So, I view his polling..

with a very cautious eye. Even when he has us up, I'm not too comfortable.

[truthpusher]

4. either way you can always add about 6 points to the Kerry column..

for the typical move of undecideds to the challenger, no cell phones in polls and last minute voting. So, unless I see everybody at 7 points or more to Bush, I am not going to worry.

[qazplm]

7. whoa

that's pretty strong language there...just add 7 pts?

I dont know about that.

[truthpusher]

17. I think that after this election the pollsters and pundits will...

...be seen as completely out of touch with America and Americans. You have got to admit all of these guys are in a bubble. Jon Stewart gave an excellent example the other day. He compared the media with a 6 year olds soccer game. They all run around the field in a pack - they are never more than 3 feet from the ball. What John Stewart was doing at a 6 year olds soccer game? I don't know, but he has a point. :)

[still_one]

6. Zogby is NOT moving away

In his polls the undecided still haven't weighed in. He believes they will go for Kerry

Frankly, both polls are not counting the newly registered voters, and the 18-24 year olds

John Kerry is going to win by at least 5%

The republicans know this, and are pulling their hair because they know if it isn't close they will have trouble with recounts

[louis c]

10. Oh, I agree

I believe that everyone is under counting the final Kerry vote. Every last minute movement is in Kerry's favor. Undecideds to the challenger, young voters not polled, turnout, the ground game, cell phone users not counted. I factor that in. When i see Kerry within 1 point, and Bush under 48%, I think we're in good shape.

However, Pollsters can only report what they know. I feel they will all be searching for explanations on how Kerry did so well on election night. You'll be hearing all the excuses we have already given as reasons here on DU.

[DaveinMD]

8. this is why tracking polls are unreliable

a 300 per day sample is subject to wild swings because the sample is too small to be reliable. I've been saying this for weeks regardless of what the tracking poll results have been.

[louis c]

12. They're tracking 1,000 a day each.

All this news is very good for us.

We want the general public to believe this is close, so we can maximize turnout.

Anything over 112 million votes is Kerry's. The higher that total, the better off we are.

[DaveinMD]

18. nope

they are tracking 333 per day.

[louis c]

24. I hate to correct you but it is

1,000 a day.

Up until a month ago it was 500 a day. I've been following since April, and I pay for his Premium site. Rasmussen, for sure does 1,000 a day.

He does 500 a day in his 7 day rolling averages, so that he has 3,500 for his sample.

[DaveinMD]

27. okay

then its true for Rasmussen. I don't think its true for the post.

The other flaw in Rasmussen polls is that he does automated polling as does survey usa. That's a very questionable methodology.

[louis c]

29. I have already conceded that

the polls, all the polls, are missing the new voter.

That's why a close race in these polls is good news.

The more standard methods favor Bush. the young, single worker is not easy to poll. The new regs aren't even on the lists. How would you poll someone who registered a month ago. How about Minnesota, where you can register and vote on election day.

Every variable falls in Kerry's favor. New Regs, Young voters, first time voters, infrequent voters, undecideds. Every group. So, when I see a race that's too close too call, I give JK about 4 points.

Even Karl Rove is reported to have said that the piece of shit in the white house has to be up by more than 4 points in the last polls to win on election day. (Well he may have used that figure, but probably not those exact words).

Anyway, I'm feeling good about this election.

[Nicholas_J]

14. Look closer

They are not tracking 1000 per day, but 1000 over the period for the poll which is an average over 3 days, they poll 1000 people over that period. Divide 1000 by three and you get...

[louis c]

26. You're mistaken

I just went to Rasmussen's premium site and he says 1,000 call nightly. 3,000 are in a 3 day sampling.

The 7 day tracking in battleground states is 500 a night for samples of 3,500.

I don't know why everyone is so worried. These numbers are authentic, for what they have to work with.

we know they are under counting groups they can't reach. This is not intentional. Those groups are all Kerry's. Young voters with cell phones, newly registered, voters who never voted before, and a huge turnout. factor it in.

As long as they polls show a close race, and Bush unable to break 50%, we can expect a victory in 9 days.

[Nicholas_J]

28. I didnt check the numbers voted on per day

just assumed that the 1000 give was correct, and then repeated the standard methodology for tracking polls which is that they are polling x number of people over a three day period, and then averaging out the days, so a smaller number of people are polled each day. This method gets an average of polling over that three day period, which is less accurate than taking a poll over three days and then stating what percent of that entire number voted for each candidate.

Both Zogby and Rasmusssen are averaging the results over a three day period, rather than giving the data it figures for the entire group. Which means that oneone day Kerry can be ten points ahead of Bush in the poll, but the next day he could be wo points behind, and the next dead even so the results would show him behind, While in the total of the votes he could actually be ahead.

Oddly enough none of the natioal pollsare reflecting the reality on thge ground, where even in heavily Republican districts, exit polls are showing democrats voting in higher numbers than expected. In most cases 25 percent higher than expected. In fact, the numbers are coming out in the reverse of the percentages Gallop, Rasmussen, Mason Dixon and SUSA use. They are all using models that show Republicans outvoting democrats by anywhere from 5percent to 25 percent while right nowm the daily percentage by which Democrats are voting is 25 percent higher than Gallop anticipated by more than 25 percent in Republican dominated areas

Gallop anticipated that the voter breakdown would be 39 percent Republican 30 percent Democrat, and the rest independent. In fact, right now in the heaviest Republican districts in early voting states. Democrats are voting at about 40 percent in those Republican areas. Which is why Republicans are trying to get tens of thousands of democratic votes thrown out for techicaliteis on the applications in Republican dominated counties in Florida and Ohio. I do not think the courts will disenfranchise voters again for the minor techincal mistakes ointed out be Republicans (such as having two places to sign asserting that you are a U.S. citiizen, and the person only signs in one place, thinking he only needs to assert it once)

Early voting is showing Kerry is ahead of Bush in most of the state where it is happening.

In fact, in some cases state where early voting is occuring are showing that the total number of voters who vote this year may be as much as 78 percent higher than the percentage of people who voted in 2002. This election may show the highest percentage of registered voters voting in the last 50 years.

[MasonJar]

11. We went up to Cincy yesterday from Louisville to help the Dems

canvass and they said polls they had received showed Kerry by 6% in Ohio. I pray that they are correct.

[ClintonTyree]

13. I haven't been polled by Zogby for about 10 days..............

I was getting polled at least once, mostly two times a week. For almost two weeks now I haven't heard a thing from them. :shrug: Maybe they're looking for people who gave them different answers than I did? It just seems strange being this close to election time that I'd be dropped from their poll.

[jerryster]

15. Time's website of battleground states

I check it regularly and today I liked what I saw. I moved several states out of Bush's column and into my "too close to call" list. The states I moved from Bush are CO, IA, AR, and NH. The numbers at the website have definitely changed at those states in Kerry's favor. If they are now toss-ups it means he's gaining every day. However, for those of you hoping for upsets in WV,NV, or AZ I'm sorry to say I don't see it happening.

I also agree with you about who gets out the vote. It's all about turnout, folks.

[TwilightZone]

16. While I don't question Zogby's methods, I do question the likelihood

of such a substantial swing. I seriously doubt that this poll can be reflective of a similar swing in the electorate. I just can't see huge numbers of people changing their minds on a daily basis.

Kerry will win. The undecideds/independents will swing his way, and voter turnout will heavily favor Democrats.

[Freddie Stubbs]

19. Has Rasmussen changed his methodology since 2000?

This morning's Rasmussen Portrait of America Poll shows Bush now leading Gore
47.4 percent to 40.2 percent, an increase of 1.8 points over yesterday. Bush
has increased his lead about 3 points in the Rasmussen poll in 3 days. As I
said earlier, the Battleground poll lags behind the Rasmussen polls by a day or
two in terms of the period polled. Battleground's poll released yesterday
showed Bush ahead by 3 points, but that poll was only through last Thursday.
If Rasmussen is indeed correct and Bush has gained, I would expect the next
Battleground to show an increase in support for Bush as well over its prior
poll. If it doesn't, then that would make the latest Rasmussen results
suspect.

http://www.google.com/groups?q=Rasmussen+poll&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&safe=off&as_drrb=b&as_mind=26&as_minm=10&as_miny=2000&as_maxd=4&as_maxm=11&as_maxy=2004&selm=20001031020744.10019.00000576%40nso-ck.aol.com&rnum=2

[louis c]

21. Yes.

In 2000, he did not weight his data.

He has since admitted his mistake, and now uses a system very similar to Zogby's.

Other than his Ohio numbers, where he has Bush up by 5%, the rest look very much in line with other polls and common sense.

Remember, I believe everyone is under counting Kerry. It's not their fault, it's just that they are not prepared for the changes in this year's election.

[sonicx]

20. Zogby said bush had 2 good polling days, which mean he could go up

tommorrow unless Kerry does well today. Very odd. he did have Bush leading by about 3 or 4 in late Oct 2000 tho.

Also other new polls have it the opposite. And 1st tier battlegrounds are tied or with Kerry ahead a little.

[kodi]

22. at this point, the nats are useless, look at the state polls. its the EC.

kerry is beginning to beat bush's ass there, and that is without acknowledging the increase in dems voting anticipated by the people on the ground, but glossed over in the media.

even rowe believes bush needs a plus 4 nationally to offset the expected increase in democratic supporters voting this time out.

bush will lose the election.

[WI_DEM]

23. A cautionary note folks, tomorrows Zogby might be crappy

because he says 1) Bush has had two good days 2) That Saturday Bush was up by 50-43 3) That means Thursday must have been a decent Kerry day since the race is still (today) a two-point ball game. 4) Thursday will fall off tomorrow and so unless today is solid for Kerry Bush could be up by 4 or so points tomorrow.

But remember every day a day falls off so by Wednesday, Bush's strong Saturday will be gone.