Kerry Surging in New ABC News Poll

[Donny247]

These numbers are really getting weird. Zogby has Bush polling very strongly over the last two days, leading Kerry by 6% in Saturday polling alone. Meanwhile, the ABC tracking poll shows Kerry pulling even to Bush with phenomenal SATURDAY numbers:

"Saturday was Kerry's best single day since this tracking poll began."

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=193178

Rasmussen also shows strong Kerry gains. What the hell is going on??

[swag]

1. Random sampling yields random variations.

[Harlan James]

2. Even the mighty Zogby has bad days

It will make Shrub's collapse next week seem all the more stark.

[mikehiggins]

3. All the ducks are getting into line

None of the pollsters want to be left holding a bag like the one that said "DEWEY WINS!"

If Kerry romps (yes, I said romps, like in happy puppies or even wolves) to victory none of them want to be shown to be as wrong, wrong, wrong as they have been all along.

Plus, CBS, etc., doesn't want to find itself sitting across the table from FCC Chairman Howard Dean anytime soon. Not that the guv would have an agenda, especially after the fair treatment he got from the media during the primaries.

[Lefta Dissenter]

15. FCC Chairman

HA, forgive me if I've missed speculative threads about this, but your thought of Howard Dean as FCC Chair caught me offguard, and is quite a delightful image! I'd wish we had full-time FCC cams, sort of like CSPAN coverage! :D

[Free2BMe]

4. polling 1200 people is hardly a cross section of Americana.

[sonicx]

8. that's a standard sample for polls, but...

last election most polls had bush ahead in PV, but he ended up losing. i think it's fair to at least be skeptical.

[sonicx]

5. Kerry could tie or lead in abc/wp if he polls well today

one of bush's good days will fall off.

[aquart]

6. Undecideds are breaking for the challenger. As expected.

And these are still likely voters. New voters aren't being counted. The new voters are overwhelmingly Kerry. This is why Republicans on the Sunday shows were saying that Democrats were registering 4 times instead of once. They can't believe our numbers are real. They don't want to face how much their policies are hated. So they're claiming fraudulent registration. This tells you how many of us there are compared to them. That's why they are desperate to suppress voting.

If our votes are counted, we win. They know it. We know it.

[Laelth]

12. Absolutely.

Couldn't have said it better, myself.

If our votes are counted, we win. They know it. We know it.

Let's just hope they get counted.

:dem:

Kerry on!

-Laelth

[GalleryGod]

7. SIMPLE: It's the "BROWN ACID" !!! Very bad for pollsters!

:silly: :crazy: :smoke: :puke:

[cornermouse]

9. I think a couple of things

1. A close race with a lot of people involved means sales and ratings for the media.

2. Even though neither one of them are campaigning in this state a poll last week said that Kerry has made up ground on Bush. Interesting. I hope its true.

[louis c]

10. Rasmussen had Great Kerry numbers for yesterday

also.

Kerry has picked up almost 3 points in Rasmussen's 3 day tracking poll (2.8%) in the last two days.

I can't figure out why Zogby is missing this. If he had this too, I'd feel much better.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

[Pirate Smile]

11. Wow - look at this:

Most of the slight change occurred among one group that's been giving Bush some unexpected trouble — men, but specifically unmarried (and thereby mostly younger) men. Single men now favor Kerry over Bush by 65-32 percent, while married men favor Bush by 59-39 percent; the result is a surprisingly close race among men overall, 51-47 percent. And it remains close among women as well — 48-48 percent.

Is the new big gap - single v. married instead of men v. women?

Here is more:

That's quite unlike the traditional gender gap in presidential politics; in 2000 Bush won men by 11 points, and lost women by the same margin. As Friday's tracking poll analysis first described, the gender gap may be passe, replaced this year by a marriage gap, itself at least partly a function of age.

Indeed in this poll, Bush not only leads by 20 points among married men, but also by 16 points among married women, 56-40 percent. And Kerry leads not only by 21 points among single women (a core Democratic group), 59-38 percent, but, as noted, by an even larger 33 points among single men. Single men are less likely to cite terrorism — Bush's key issue — as their top concern, and more likely to cite the economy.

There is a strong economic component at work; singles, naturally, have lower household incomes. Among likely voters in households with less than $35,000 in annual income, Kerry leads by 54-41 percent. Among those in $35,000 to $50,000 households, it's a close 48-47 percent. And among people with household incomes over $50,000, Bush holds a 54-43 percent lead.

[sundancekid]

13. for single men -- another key factor? how about: "it's the draft, stupid"

[DaveinMD]

14. tracking polls are unreliable

sample sizes of 300 yield weird daily results.

[Robert Oak]

16. Anybody know regional breakdowns of sample group?

i'm wondering if they are just hitting "pockets" depending upon
region...

that the distribution of Kerry voters, per Bush voters assumptions
are wrong per state and depending upon which town/area they
call it skews the sample...

and that 1027 sample size is too small due to variations in distribution this year.

It's too insane, the polls are all over the place. Republican biased
polls showing Kerry in the lead, best poll (Zogby) showing bush breaking ahead.

This is the only thing I can think of.