Order of Election Returns on the Night of Nov. 2nd - Possible Scenarios

[indyjones1938]

Obviously the returns from states east of the Mississippi come in the earliest. That includes the Ohio-Pennsylvania-Florida trifecta, the New England bloc and Dem strongholds like DC, Maryland, Delaware, New York and Illinois.

By the time the returns start crossing the Mississippi, we should know whether Kerry has won or not.

If Kerry has 215+ EV by the time we cross the Mississippi, then it's a landslide. This is the number we need for California (55 EV) to put us over the top. If we're at 215 EV by this stage in the game (est. 9:30-10:00 PM EST or so) we'd have won the big three (OH-PA-FL), plus West Virginia and either Wisconsin or one of the GOP-leaners (NC and VA).

If Kerry has racked up 188+ EV by the time we hit the Mississippi, Kerry has most likely won it. That assumes he will win west coast California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington and - at the very minimum - one of the western swing states or GOP-leaners (CO, NM, MN, AZ, IA, MO, NV or AK). Of these states, NM and NV have the lowest number of EV at 5 each.

If Kerry has at least 160 EV by the time we cross the Mississippi, things are going so-so. Not bad, but not great. Assuming we take California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii (77 EV) then we'd need to get 33 EV from IA, MN, NM, CO, AZ, MO, NV or AK.

If we've racked up fewer than 140 EV by the time we hit the Mississippi, we're in serious trouble. It would mean we've probably lost all of the big three, or won one of them but suffered upsets in states like Maine, New Hampshire, Delaware or New Jersey. It would still be possible to pull off a win by taking all of the western swing states and upsets in all the GOP-leaners, but if we've lost Dem-leaners like NH and ME then that is incredibly unlikely.

If we're at fewer than 120 EV halfway through the night, then it's Bush in a landslide. The total of the Pacific bloc, plus every western/midwestern swing state and GOP-leaner and even solid Bush Louisiana thrown in for good measure only equals 149 EV, 1 EV short of the 150 we'd need to win.

I did a lot of these rough calculations at www.November2004.com, so re-check my math, but basically this seems like a good guide to follow when watching election returns. Basically 160 EV+ by 9:30 PM EST is the magic number.

[indyjones1938]

1. Nobody else finds

this number-crunching and hypothesizing interesting? :shrug:

:nopity:

[indigo32]

7. I think alot of us are just very stressed about the election right now

considering what a bad dream last election eve was. Personally I don't want to think of anything but getting through Tues Eve, at that point it's out of my hands and I have to believe we'll win. I'm headed out as soon as the Vikes are done playing (for my neighbors sake, not mine) to knock on doors. I am thinking only of that right now.

[indyjones1938]

2. Also

Can anyone find a link that lists the exact order the 2000 election night returns came in?

[spooked]

3. Yes it's very interesting!

Which networks will dare to call it after the Florida flip flop of 2000??

[indyjones1938]

6. I believe

CBS was the first to call Florida in 2000 (of course, they called it for Gore). But I'm not sure exactly what time that was.

NBC and ABC also called it for Gore.

FoxNews was the last to call Florida initially, but the first to call it for Bush. Only after the Fox call did the big three networks throw Florida back into the too-close-to-call column.

[annabanana]

4. I like it, but it presupposes a lack of confusion

and an early agreement as to outcome, moving east to west. It would do my heart NO END of good for things to proceed like this.

[tedoll78]

5. For those interested.. there's a site with poll closing times.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G04/closing.phtml?format=mc

It tells what time each state closes, how many electoral votes each is worth, etc. It's really helpful.

[HFishbine]

8. Interesting

Those are the numbers I'll be keeping in mind on election night.