ARKANSAS poll has race TIED

[sisenor]

Real poll - and all tied up
Sunday, Oct 24, 2004

By John Brummett

Maybe you remember that a couple of weeks ago I columnized on the poll of the Arkansas presidential race conducted by Opinion Research Associates in Little Rock for us at the Arkansas News Bureau.

President Bush was up by nine points.

I declared therefore the existence of empirical evidence that ours was no battleground state. I asserted that John Kerry was getting killed in South Arkansas by the National Rifle Association's opposition to him on gun issues and his perceived cultural liberalism on gay issues.

That was the percolating conventional wisdom nationally at the time. Arkansas was universally painted pink, for "lean Bush."

Maybe you ought now to forget that.

We sent Opinion Research back into the field Monday through Wednesday evenings, making 500 calls to likely voters evenly split among the four congressional districts. This is the new report: The presidential race is tied in Arkansas, 48-48.

http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2004/10/24/JohnBrummett/306414.html

[bluestateguy]

1. Send Clinton in

That should do the job. It's still an uphill battle, and I'm not sure I want resources taken out of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Arkansas should not be ignored.

[yardwork]

2. A lot of Arkansans have posted about AR being in play for months

I've seen numerous posts from various parts of the state saying that many people are mad at * and going to vote for Kerry.

I see a landslide for Kerry if we get out the vote!

[Auntie Bush]

3. Wooooo Hooooooo!!!!!!!!!

I wonder if bush* is challenging God opinion?

[ciaobox]

4. IF Arkansas breaks for Kerry....

Then you better BELIEVE that Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida and Virginia -- maybe even Tennessee are Kerry's for the taking also.

[lessthanjake]

5. Wow

Up until now only zogby had ever shown arkansas close. I doubt kerry will win it but yeah its worth a try.

[Rageneau]

6. I'm in the most right-wing part of Arkansas and...

Signs here are very encouraging.

I live in the most conservative city (Fort Smith) in the most most conservative (3rd) of Arkansas' four Congressional Districts, and Kerry signs around here outnumber Bush signs by three-to-one. I've never, ever, ever seen that before. Seems to be a combination of Dems proud to let people know they're for JFK, mixed with a reluctance of Pubs to brag about Bush.

Also, the volunteer level at the local Kerry-Edwards headquarters has been phenomenal. We've already completed all the calls the DNC gave us for this District and are now calling Democrats in other, 'bluer' districts, as part of GOTV.

If Kerry could come within five points of winning this district, he should easly carry the rest of the state.

I'm beginning to think that's possible.

[aquart]

7. Unlikely voters will decide this election.

[Fluffdaddy]

8. Kerry has no shot at Arkansas . please look at ALL the other

polls an you will see I'm right. Ohio and FL We take both these an happy days are here again. Don't waste hope where we have no shot