Rasmussen Battleground Polls for 10/24 (Some Good News)

[louis c]

Rasmussen's national 3 day tracking poll has Bush barely ahead of Kerry by a slim 47.6% to 47.2%. Talk about close. This is a Kerry gain of 0.9% from yesterday and 2.8% in two days.

http://wwwrasmussenreports.com

Zogby, however, has Bush ahead by 2 points in his national 3 day tracking poll. The margin is the same a yesterday.

http://www.zogby.com

Florida, Tie 48% (This is the second day in a row of identical numbers here)

Michigan, Kerry 51%-45% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday, and has moved Michigan from a toss-up state to the leans Kerry column. This movement has now changed Rasmussen's EV projection to 222 for Bush and 207 for Kerry)

Minnesota, Bush 48%-46% (This is the third day in a row of identical numbers here)

Ohio, Bush 50%-46% (This is contrary to almost all the other polls, including Gallup. However, it is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday)

Pennsylvania, Kerry 49%-46% (This is a 2 point Bush gain from yesterday)

[senseandsensibility]

1. What is your guess about

what is going on in Ohio with this poll?

[annerevere]

2. Thanks louis c!

I wish Ohio and Minnesota looked better, but the tie in Florida is very encouraging.

Big Dog is coming to Florida and Al was there today touring black churches.

Hoping for the best!

[tedoll78]

3. Someone over at mydd.com..

has done an algebraic calculation using daily poll numbers to figure-out what the actual day-to-day numbers were. In the past 8 days, Kerry has led in 5 of them, and it can be predicted that when the Chimp's good day drops-off early next week, Kerry will take a narrow lead.

[lessthanjake]

4. State of the race

Kerrys gonna win the electoral college and lose the popular vote and i am going to laugh so hard.

[WI_DEM]

5. no Kerry will win the popular vote too

His leads out of NY, California, New England, and Illinois will be so large that the small states that Bush wins (ND, Wy, KS, ect) will not make up for the 2 million vote plurality out of Calif and the million plus vote plurality out of NY, ect.