Dean 24, Gep 21, Kerry 21, Edwards 15 - latest Zogby.

[chimpymustgo]

Just on the Today Show. I'm running out of the house, and I think those are the numbers. Don't know if there's a link.

Joe Lockhart (Clinton's press sec) says it's looking good for Kerry and Edwards.

Be back later.

 Edited to add link:

Race gets even tighter in Iowa, poll shows

Dean holds thin lead over Gephardt, Kerry

Updated: 7:13 a.m. ET Jan. 14, 2004

DES MOINES, Iowa - Democratic presidential front-runner Howard Dean held a shrinking three-point lead and John Kerry moved into a dead heat with Richard Gephardt for second place in Iowa five days before the state’s caucuses, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

advertisementIn a shifting race for the Democratic campaign’s first big prize, Dean dropped four percentage points to 24 percent in the rolling three-day tracking poll and Kerry gained four points to tie Gephardt in second place at 21 percent.

North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gained one percentage point to 15 percent, setting up a tight race to the finish among the four top contenders in Monday’s caucuses.

“There’s major movement every day in Iowa,” pollster John Zogby said, with 13 percent of likely caucus-goers still undecided and all of the top candidates planning an intensive schedule of campaigning in the state in the final days.

The rolling poll of 501 likely caucus-goers was taken Sunday through Tuesday and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent. The poll will continue each day through the caucuses.

Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, has gained six percentage points since the first poll was published on Sunday and actually led in Monday’s round of polling, while Dean had his worst day, Zogby said.

3-way race
Kerry is contending with both Dean and Gephardt among what were considered some of their strongest voting blocs, challenging Dean for college-educated voters and Gephardt for union votes.

“This is officially a three-way race,” Zogby said.

Nine Democrats are vying for the right to challenge President Bush in November, with Dean and Gephardt battling back and forth for the top spot in Iowa polls for months.

Dean, the former Vermont governor, holds a big lead in polls in New Hampshire, which has a Jan. 27 primary one week after Iowa, but could face a growing challenge there from retired Gen. Wesley Clark.

-snip-
 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3955666/

[ignatiusr]

1. Most interesting were Monday's results: Kerry 25%, Dean 18%! WTF?

Excerpt from Zogby:

“This is officially a 3-way race. Kerry is surging. He actually led the pack on Monday with 25% for the day. Dean had his worst single day with only 18%. Dean leads in the West, with Kerry in 2nd and Gephardt slipping, but Gephardt leads in the Central region of Iowa and the three are tied in the East.

“Kerry now leads among liberals, while moderates belong to Gephardt. The three candidates are bunched together among Democrats. Dean still leads among voters under 50, and Gephardt dominates voters over age 65. But it’s a 3-way race for those 50-64 years old.


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=779

[NewYorkerfromMass]

15. RE: the AG Tom Miller endorsement

He's the single biggest vote getter in Iowa elections right now- extremely popular- this endorsement was huge and possibly overshadowed by Harkin's.
In general Kerry's hard work in Iowa is now paying off.

[Maddy McCall]

2. I would be very happy if Kerry wins Iowa

[deminflorida]

3. Dean's in Big Trouble in Iowa....

of course, it would be better for Clark if he wins and gets Gephardt out of the way...But, you take the chips as they fall.

[Rowdyboy]

4. I still think Gephart will take Iowa....

His labor base will come through. Guess we'll see if I'm right soon enough.

[WI_DEM]

5. tracking polls are notorious for peaks and valleys

Monday's polling doesn't surprise me since it came the day after the Sunday debate and all the negative press about Sharpton's exchange with Dean. I think it will stabilize now. Still it looks like it will be the closest Iowa caucus since '88.

[cryofan]

6. egg-za-lent!!! Both Kerry AND Geppy could beat Dean!

Maybe even Edwards. You see, because DEan gets such an extravagant number of mentions from the media, he is getting a certain "mentioning" effect. That means that some sizeable fraction of his poll support is just people who are naming him because he is mentioned most in the news. But these people are actually more likely to either change their vote, or to not vote at all.

[WI_DEM]

8. and Dean could still beat

Kerry, Edwards, and Gephardt--not to mention Kucinich. Just like he just beat Sharpton, Braun, and Kucinich in DC primary.

[robbedvoter]

7. But, but, but Al Gore said all others should shut up and bow out

because HD is the only candidate with grassroots and opposing war. I don't understand!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. Indeed Kerry is "on fire"

Looks like a lot of Dems are coming home.

[adadem]

10. Great news

John Kerry has the experience and integrity to lead our country. No training needed. A veteran with no special interest ties from PAC donations; never accepted any. A solid progressive voting record in congress...has a low rate of "compliance" with the bush regime http://www.nypost.com/news/regionalnews/44717.htm

I pray for a president with integrity, honor and experience...
John Kerry is that candidate!

[BayCityProgressive]

13. I was a Dean supporter

I am now undecided. I live in Michigan. I think Dean will lose Iowa now and Kerry and Edwards will come out looking the best. I think Clark and Dean will fight it out for New Hampshire and if Dean doesn't get a win there his chances are reduced. I believe Edwards will win his home state of N Carolina. I am liking Edwards more and more, he is very charismatic and he is running a positive campaign which I respect. I bet there will be some fighting when the nominee is named because I think a few of the candidates may gain equal support. This would be really bad for the party and split us even further.

[stickdog]

16. And you base this entire analysis on one day of a tracking poll?

???

[kerry-is-my-prez]

17. You look at one's momentum - if you're moving down, you've got a problem

Dean's only hope is to "run out the clock." The more people get to know Dean - the lower his numbers go. In addition, his disapproval ratings are very high.

[nightperson]

11. Thank you Iowa!

And thanks for posting this story and making my day. Even if Kerry turns around today and admits to unseemly behavior with underage Rottweilers, I think this news goes a long way towards vindicating my stubbornness in the face of difficulty. The fat lady has not even left the groupies behind on the tour bus and plugged in her amp, let alone sung. Sorry, I've waited for a while to be able to say this, SSSSSwwwweeeeeeeeeeeeeeettttt!!!!!:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :toast: :grouphug: :thumbsup: :party: B-) Thank you, and have a great day.

[realdem]

12. The Rumors of Dean's Demise are Greatly Exagerated

If Dean's Monday was 18 and he still leads, that means his Tuesday, after reminding Iowan's of Kerry's and Gep's and Edwards' war votes was pretty good.

[stickdog]

14. Would anyone like to bet me straight up that Dean loses Iowa? (nt)

[maddezmom]

18. kick n/t

:)

[elsiesummers]

19. The general trend (not just one day)

Is that Kerry and Edwards have momentum and Dean and Gephardt are losing momentum.

It's amazing how this race is getting so tight.

19% in that tracking poll are still undecided, I take it.

Could be anybody's race.