Sean Reynolds
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:14 PM
Original message |
Zogby State Tracking Numbers (Mixed news). |
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Edited on Sun Oct-24-04 06:15 PM by Sean Reynolds
Bush leads in: Florida (49-46) Ohio (47-42) Iowa (47-45) New Mexico (49-44) Nevada (48-44) Wisconsin (48-45) 74 EC votesKerry leads in: Colorado (49-45) Michigan (52-42) Minnesota (46-45) Pennsylvania (47-45) 57 EC voteshttp://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20041024/pl_nm/campaign_poll_sunday_dc&cid=615&ncid=1963&sid=96378800
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NEOBuckeye
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:15 PM
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1. I don't buy Bush's lead in Ohio |
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It's much closer here than the polls indicate.
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sonicx
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:19 PM
Response to Original message |
2. Those bush ones are all odd. and it's odd that kerry leads CO. |
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Edited on Sun Oct-24-04 06:29 PM by sonicx
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Sean Reynolds
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:20 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
3. I was thinking the same thing......why is Kerry ahead in Colorado? |
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I could see the Bush's lead slipping, but Kerry taking the lead?
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WI_DEM
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:21 PM
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4. Yikes, that isn't mixed that's lousy |
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and I don't believe that we are up by only 2 in Pa and down by five in Ohio. These numbers don't add up. I'm hearing that we're pulling out of Colorado but Zogby has us up. Then we have a number of polls showing us up in Ohio and Zog has us down. Oh well, thank god only a week until the election. These polls are nuts.
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geek tragedy
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:21 PM
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5. I hope Zogby is wrong. His #'s are very Bush friendly. |
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If he's right . . . barf.
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mvd
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:25 PM
Response to Reply #5 |
10. They were taken during the same time he has Bush with.. |
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strangely good national numbers. Could definitely be off.
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mzmolly
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:23 PM
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6. The good news... he's under 50% in most of those states. |
surfermaw
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:25 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
12. He calaled KErry the winner |
Robert Oak
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:24 PM
Response to Original message |
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last I saw Colorado was going Red and Ohio was blue by 7 in a republican weighted poll.
I'm stopping looking at these crazy things. They are giving me heartburn.
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unfrigginreal
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:25 PM
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8. Hmmm, not much good news there |
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Does anyone know if the sample sizes are 200 per night per state or 600 per night per state?
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still_one
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:25 PM
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9. I like my numbers better |
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Arkansas
Opinion Research Associates for the Arkansas News Bureau and Stephens Media Group. Oct. 18-20, 2004. N=500 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4.5:
bush 48 Kerry 48 undecided 3
Florida
Schroth & Assoc. (D) and the Polling Company (R) for The Miami Herald and St. Petersburg Times. Oct. 19-21, 2004. N=800 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.5:
bush 46 Kerry 46 undecided 7
Iowa
Strategic Vision (R). Oct. 18-20, 2004. N=801 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3: bush 48 Kerry 48 undecided 4
Michigan
EPIC/MRA for WXYZ. Oct. 18-22, 2004. N=610 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
bush 43 Kerry 49 undecided 6
Minnesota
EPIC/MRA for WXYZ. Oct. 18-22, 2004. N=610 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4: bush 48 Kerry 49 undecided 3
Nevada
Research 2000 for The Reno Gazette-Journal and Channel 4. Oct. 19-21, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4:
bush 49 Kerry 47 undecided 3
Ohio
Scripps Survey Research Center, Ohio University. Oct. 17-21, 2004. N=422 registered voters statewide (MoE ± 4.9); 358 likely voters (MoE ± 5.3):
bush 46 Kerry 50 undecided 3
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West Coast Democrat
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:25 PM
Response to Original message |
11. But I read in another thread that Kerry is giving up on Colorado.... |
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and I don't believe for a moment that * is up by 5 in New Mexico.
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still_one
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:30 PM
Response to Reply #11 |
14. The polls are messed up this time |
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The majority of newly registered voters are going for Kerry, and this is huge
18-24 are going for Kerry, and they WILL vote this time
undecided votes will also go for Kerry
Please remember that Zogby is not always right. He wasn't that good during the primaries, and during the midterm elections
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sonicx
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:31 PM
Response to Reply #11 |
16. and the Kerry camp said OH anf FL looked good in private polls. |
Green Mountain Dem
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:29 PM
Response to Original message |
13. Are you fuckin for real ????? |
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I am so sick of this crap....KERRY in a FUCKON Landslide...It ain't complicated. But if you prefer to believe the media whores and pollsters...be my gueat!!
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DaveinMD
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:30 PM
Response to Original message |
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the campaigns rely on are more reliable than any independent polling. Remember that.
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lancdem
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:34 PM
Response to Reply #15 |
zach
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:31 PM
Response to Original message |
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These aren't even that close to the zogby interactive polling he released this past week. So is he saying this polling is flawed, or the interactive one? He can't have it both ways with fluctuations like this:
Zogby Interactive reported Kerry leading the state of Minnesota 54 percent to 43 percent and now it is Minnesota (46-45)?
Makes a lot of sense Zogby.
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HeldsBelds
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:36 PM
Response to Reply #17 |
23. interactive online polls are bullshit |
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This is more accurate because it was a phone poll.
Anyone can register for a zogby online interactive poll and skew the results.
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zach
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:38 PM
Response to Reply #23 |
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That isn't the point at all. Zogby always defends his interactive polls by saying it's just like whan people used to say phone polling was not reliable. So if he believes they're both legitimate forms of polling, how are these results explainable? I'm not saying your opinion of interactive polls isn't correct... But Zogby himself says you are not.
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tritsofme
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:50 PM
Response to Reply #26 |
34. They're not explainable |
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Because his Interactive polls were a nice little experiment but in reality they are absolutely worthless. He has never even said that they are scientific.
He starts bringing out actual polls now because the election is a week away he doesn't want egg on his face from his silly internet polls.
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lancdem
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:32 PM
Response to Original message |
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Kerry's not ahead in Colorado, and Bush isn't up by 5 in Ohio and New Mexico and 3 in Florida and Wisconsin.
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DaveinMD
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:35 PM
Response to Reply #18 |
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that history has shown Zogby to be much more reliable in national polling than in state polling.
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louis c
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:34 PM
Response to Original message |
20. If that holds, we get buried |
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Now, I wonder how many here like Rasmussen today better than Zogby?
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DaveinMD
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:36 PM
Response to Reply #20 |
22. as I said in my post above |
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Zogby has been much more reliable in the past in his national polling than he's been in state polling. I remember him predicting a big D'Amato win over Schumer in 98 for instance.
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sonicx
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:37 PM
Response to Reply #20 |
24. both have odd OH and FL numbers. kerry's people say he's doing good there |
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even bush's people were scared (from the WaPo article).
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DaveinMD
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:39 PM
Response to Reply #24 |
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has been suspect in the past in his state polling. I trust internal polling a lot more. They have some great pollsters working for the Kerry campaign. Much better than anyone that does media polling.
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still_one
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:38 PM
Response to Reply #20 |
25. what this says is that the polls are crap! |
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We know one thing for sure, most of the newly registered voters are Democrats, and they will vote
This is why Kerry will win by at least 5%
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DemocratSinceBirth
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Sun Oct-24-04 07:01 PM
Response to Reply #20 |
39. That's Why You Have To Look At A Poll of Polls |
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To say you have a favorite pollster makes as much sense as saying you have a favorite mathemetician...
Rasmussen is a Puke and Zogby's a Flake....
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louis c
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Mon Oct-25-04 07:34 AM
Response to Reply #39 |
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or Fox.
You can take these polls, just like the news, and read between the lines.
Races that are close, that have Bush under 50%, that can't measure new regs and cell phones. That miss the youth vote and can't measure turnout, are actually good news.
I don't have a favorite pollster, I Read them all. I pay for Rasmussen inside numbers because I could afford $50, so I share that info.
The polling data that is coming out now is encouraging, if you know what to look for.
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DuaneBidoux
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:40 PM
Response to Original message |
28. This is Just Fucking Insane |
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Is he giving any commentary on why his polls are so wacky compared to a number of others out recently? Does he admit that he could be having problems with methodology? Zogby has always been the man I trusted more than any. I find this terrifying.
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DaveinMD
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #28 |
29. his state polling is always suspect |
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he's always done better in national polling.
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zach
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:44 PM
Response to Reply #29 |
30. His 2000 battleground numbers |
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His 2000 numbers were everywhere from close to way out in left field. He showed on election day 2000, that Gore/Bush were TIED 45/45 in the State of California, so you judge. You can view the results here: http://www.zogby.com/features/featuredtables.dbm?ID=30Enjoy!
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DuaneBidoux
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:46 PM
Response to Reply #30 |
32. So he's not the Polling God I believed? |
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PLEASE let him be full of shit on this one.
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DemocratSinceBirth
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Sun Oct-24-04 07:12 PM
Response to Reply #28 |
40. That Was Your First Mistake.... |
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Edited on Sun Oct-24-04 07:12 PM by DemocratSinceBirth
Do a poll of polls...
Look at the median poll number or the average....
Throw out the best and worst poll for your guy...
Having a favorite pollster is like saying you believe in the heliocentric theory cuz u dig Copernicus....
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Renew Deal
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Sun Oct-24-04 07:15 PM
Response to Reply #28 |
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Kerry loses 10 points from his last zogby total in NM? Only 42% in Ohio? Where is he getting this from?
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ciaobox
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:45 PM
Response to Original message |
31. Bullshit. Kerry will take |
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Ohio (47-42) Iowa (47-45) New Mexico (49-44) Nevada (48-44) Wisconsin (48-45)
Handily. Ignore the polls.
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ThePhilosopher04
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:47 PM
Response to Original message |
33. Not as bad as they look. The thing you have to focus on is... |
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Shrub's numbers and in every case, he's under 50%, and under 47% in Ohio without Nader on the ballot. I've seen enough results from other polls to not worry much about these results.
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DemMother
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:52 PM
Response to Original message |
35. If I remember right, Zogby had Gore ahead by only one in California, just |
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before the election. Being off by ten points in a state is pretty bad. I remember reading somewhere, maybe Donkey Rising, that Zogby's state polling is not that great.
I just spent a few hours calling voters in Florida from a phone bank in CA. If pollsters have similar experiences to the one I had this afternoon, I can't imagine how any of them can predict anything with ANY degree of certainty.
(I found the Zogby CA map from 2000--he had CA as a battleground state, which showed how clueless he was, and on election day he had Gore and Bush tied--Gore won by 12 points.)
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DaveinMD
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:53 PM
Response to Reply #35 |
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is not his forte. He got California wrong and was way off in the Schumer-D'Amato Senate race in 98.
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DemocratSinceBirth
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Sun Oct-24-04 07:14 PM
Response to Reply #36 |
41. His numbers weren't so great for Clinton-Lazio... |
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If you can be off by ten points why fucking poll...
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Quixote1818
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:55 PM
Response to Original message |
37. I don't care what the numbers say. Turnout will decide this election |
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And we already know we are winning the turnout war bigtime.
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Firespirit
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Sun Oct-24-04 06:59 PM
Response to Original message |
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My first reaction: Something is seriously screwy here. Kerry up in CO and behind in Ohio? Iowa is closer than Ohio? :wtf: A couple of days ago, Kerry was in the 48 to 50 percent range there. I find it incredible that he could have lost 8 percent support with no particular reason.
I didn't think I'd say this.. but it looks like Zogby is having some kind of meltdown. His numbers -- all of them -- are fast becoming the noisiest of all the pollsters.
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DemocratSinceBirth
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Sun Oct-24-04 07:17 PM
Response to Reply #38 |
43. I'd Like To See His Operation.... |
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You need a lot of callers to poll ten states a night...
They could be pressed for time and winging it....
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