ARG NH Poll: Dean down, Clark up

[Dookus]

Braun 0%
Clark 22%
Dean 32%
Edwards 3%
Gephardt 4%
Kerry 13%
Kucinich 1%
Lieberman 9%
Sharpton 0%
Undecided 16%


Clark is up two points, Dean is down two. Dean is down 4 pts in 3 days.

Kerry is rising again, but he's way behind Clark.

[deminflorida]

1. Clark within striking distance....10% points....

If Carter breaks tradition and campaigns with Dean this weekend in Iowa. Then perhaps Clinton gets in and upsets the Apple-Cart in N.H. for Clark....

This could get real interesting since after the N.H. primary, Dean then has to head South and into the heartland just to stay alive until Super Tuesday.

[robbedvoter]

2. Who cares about the endorsements? This one is on the merits.

Let's see, who campaigns best.

[Larkspur]

3. An appropriate cartoon of Clark -- shows him to be a "coyote"

or a scavanger, not a leader, who takes what others earn.

[Lefta Dissenter]

5. Wrong thread, Lark

This is a thread about the polls in NH.

[Larkspur]

11. You shouldn't be using graphics that take up so much room on the screen

especially ones that show your candidate in a bad light.

I don't mind the occaisonaly graphic display when it has impact on a particular issue or discussion, but the Clark posters use of large graphics is annoying because you guys & gals hog the bandwidth.

[boxster]

10. "Not a leader"

The guy was a 4-star General, but he's not a leader? That is just about the most ludicrous statement I've heard about him yet.

Clark was a General, but he's not a leader?

First in his class and a Rhodes Scholar.

Ah, but no...he's not a leader.

Purple Heart, Silver Star, numerous other awards both domestic and from other nations.

Nope, no leadership material here. He apparently took all of those awards from someone else. At least that's what you are insinuating.

He was awarded the "Legacy of Leadership" award by the State Department.

Still not a leader? Somehow, I think it would take leadership skills to win the "Legacy of Leadership" award.

Dean was governor of one of the smallest states (both in size and in population) in the U.S., yet he's more of a leader than Clark?

Too funny. Misguided and inaccurate, but funny nonetheless.

Let me suggest that you find something else to criticize, because arguing that Clark lacks leadership skills isn't going to win you any arguments.

[Larkspur]

12. Clark has never been a civilian political leader and that is how I

interpreted the cartoon.

Clark has never run for or won a civilian political office before. He was offered the slot on the Democratic ticket for the Arkansas governorship in 2000 but he declined this great opportunity to show us his great campaigning skills. He most likely would have won the office with minimal campaign effort, fit for a neophyte.

If I was a soldier, I'd follow the general, but I'm a civilian and don't take orders from a former general, who is trying to usurp my party to fulfill his delusions of grandeur.

[Bucky]

15. You seem to be saying ordinary citizens, not of the elected class aren't

qualified for office. I would remind you that in a democracy regular people, not just the established intelligencia, control who gets into power. That said, I think you need to check your facts. Arkansas didn't have an election for governor in 2000. They have four year terms, with elections in 1998 and 2002.

[Lefta Dissenter]

4. I officially have no

fingernails left, and have to start on the cuticles. I wish the danged undecideds would just hurry up and declare for Clark and let me relax a little! Thanks for posting that, Dookus!

I wonder why Edwards isn't doing better there? He's moving up in Iowa, and I thought he was getting a little more positive exposure nationwide (not that he's had any reason to get negative exposure that I've ever seen). I guess I should be careful what I wish for! :)

Robbed, funny cartoon!!!

[TexasPatriot]

6. read the notes at the bottom...

"The daily trends show Wesley Clark closing in on Howard Dean. There was a 13 percentage-point gap between Clark and Dean on January 11, an 8 percentage-point gap on January 12, and a 4 percentage-point gap on January 13. If the trend continues, and even if Dean holds his core support, Clark could tie and move in front of Dean in New Hampshire before the results from Iowa are known."

wow

[maddezmom]

8. interesting

:) Still think Dean has a strong #1 spot, but one can dream right? Go Wes!

[Rowdyboy]

7. What a wonderful day to be alive

for a Clark supporter, at least! :)

Thank God the adults of New Hampshire have begun waking up and seriously considering the candidates.

[elixir]

9. The real deal on Clark's advice to Swett on resolution

My apologies for inserting this comment on this thread, but, us poor newbies need to get a word in even if it isn't directly related.

Here's a nice article encompassing the entire situation in which Clark advised Swett on the iraq resolution. If anyone has info on how to find the "levin resolution", please post it.

Wednesday, October 9, 2002

Retired Gen. Clark supports Swett, raises concerns about Iraq policy
By STEPHEN FROTHINGHAM

Associated Press Writer

MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) — Retired U.S. Army Gen. Wesley Clark said Wednesday he supports a congressional resolution that would give President Bush authority to use military force against Iraq, although he has reservations about the country’s move toward war.

Clark, who led the allied NATO forces in the Kosovo conflict, endorsed Democrat Katrina Swett in the 2nd District race.

He said if she were in Congress this week, he would advise her to vote for the resolution, but only after vigorous debate. The resolution is expected to pass the House overwhelmingly. Swett has said she supports it, as does her opponent, incumbent U.S. Rep. Charles Bass.

The general said he had no doubt Iraq posed a threat, but questioned whether it was immediate and said the debate about a response has been conducted backward.

"Normally in a debate, you start with a problem and consider possible solutions. Instead, the president has presented us with a solution before the problem has been fully articulated," he said.

"As far as the information we have now shows, there are no nuclear warheads on missiles pointed to America," he said. "You can’t wait 10 years to act, but there is time on our side."

He said al-Qaida remains the largest terrorist threat against the United States, and the connection between al-Qaida and Iraq is unclear.

Clark met Swett in Europe while her husband, former U.S. Rep. @#%$ Swett, was serving as ambassador to Denmark. Clark came to New Hampshire as a guest of another Clinton-era ambassador, George Bruno, a Democratic activist and former ambassador to Belize.

After endorsing Swett in Nashua, he visited Manchester West High School and reassured history students that the threat of terrorism should be kept in perspective.

"The way I look at it is, as terrible as 9-11 was, we worked very effectively to strike back at the Taliban. We took away the top leadership of al-Qaida; we kept them from being able to organize against us," he said.

"You’ve got a lot of angry, uncoordinated young people who want to hurt America, but they don’t know how and they don’t really have the will to do it," he told the students.

He said he shares the concerns he hears from many Americans about whether the country should act against Iraq without United Nations support and about how the United States will deal with Iraq after a successful invasion.

He also met in Portsmouth with the Democratic nominee in the 1st Congressional District, state Sen. Martha Fuller Clark.

A spokesman for Clark said the two were meeting to discuss foreign policy.

A spokeswoman for Bass said he has the endorsement of every veteran’s group in the state.

"He doesn’t need to go Washington to get a general to endorse him," said Sally Tibbetts.

[DancingBear]

13. Watch the trends, not the numbers

That's the key in NH, and everywhere. Clark is trending upward - this shows in both the "favorite candidate" portion of the poll, as well as the very important (but overlooked) "favorability" ratings. Clarks are huge, and RISING, Deans are good, but falling.

Secondly, watch the demographics. Much has been made lately of Clark beginning to take away the 45+ female from the Dean camp. Again, this is HUGE. Deans finite base number can not and will not win an election - it is those Indepedents and undecideds who make up their minds after viewing all the candidates that swing an election. These are beginning to break to Clark, and that again is HUGE. If Dean begins to lose from any demographic save the 18-30 core support it does not bode well.

Finally, I'll reverse myself and say one thing about numbers. The key number for Dean in NH was/is 35%. For those who have ever traded stocks or commodities, it's known as a "stop." As long as a given trading pattern stays away from the stop, everything is fine. Flucuations really don't matter, as long as they stay within the bottom "stop" and top "stop." If they break either one, it means that the old model no longer holds, and a new pattern is being developed. This of course can be good or bad, depending on where your money is.

When Dean broke the bottom 35% stop, it meant all bets were off.

Go, Wes, go!

[Bucky]

14. Two things you really need to know to understand these polls...

Please keep in mind that when Clark went up from 19% to 22% in three days it is part of serious trend toward my candidate's surging strength. But before that, when Clark dropped from 21% to 19% over a three day period, polls don't mean a goddamn thing.

Similarly, when Dean was ahead of my candidate by ~37% to 18%, the polls are completely unimportant. But when he PLUNGES down to 32%, a mere 10 points ahead of Clark, then this is proof positive that he is tanking, unelectable, and probably a closet Republican.

Thank you for reading my objective analysis of these polls. :eyes:
Seriously, I think we're spending way too much time on this polling nonsense. This horse race mentality is horse manure.

[ACPS65]

16. Great news.

Looks like Iowans are finally wising up to how throughly incompetent Howard is.