Do you trust any polls at this point?

[mvd]

Zogby's been so up and down lately and his latest state numbers make him like a wacky version of Strategic Vision. I'm losing the faith I had in him. I'd say the same thing if he had us ahead by 10% in all the battleground states. Rasmussen is a Repuke. Gallup is completely unreliable. Survey USA probably oversamples Repukes. I guess ARG is still good.

Are there any polls you trust?

[Cerridwen]

1. Nope - not a one - n/t

[Kierkegaard]

2. Nada

[stevedeshazer]

3. No

None.

The only poll that counts is November 2.

[DaveinMD]

4. I trust the

internal polling that I sometimes get to see.

[mvd]

7. Yep

It's hard for the operatives to hide what they see in internal polling. I'm encouraged by what they say.

[TrustingDog]

5. never have (well, for about 4 years anyway) never will. n/t

[Crunchy Frog]

6. If they were consistent, and the polling agencies

didn't seem to have ulterior agendas, I would, but niether is the case so no, I don't.

[evilqueen]

8. NOPE and I suspect some people...

on both sides of the aisle are purposely polling as Shrub supporters, but once in the booth, will vote Kerry/Edwards.

Hey, freepers, no one can see what you do in the booth, so feel free to vote for Kerry/Edwards so you won't be such LUSERS.

[calmblueocean]

9. Uh-uh.

Polls can't tell us who's really going out to vote and who isn't. Only Election Day will tell us that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Just Do A Poll Of Polls...

Do an average of the polls...


Or look at the median result....


Throw out the best and worst poll for your guy...


But having a favorite pollster is like having a favorite mathemetician...

[troubleinwinter]

11. Nope

I've quit paying any attention to them.

[FreedomFry]

12. Polls say what pollsters' funders want them to say.

Besides, polls generally discount young people because most polls target people who have voted previously and who have land-line phones. Most first-time voters are cell-phone-based. This gives me hope.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. You're Assuming Political Preference Is A Function Of Cell Phone Use...

That assumption might be incorrect...

[FreedomFry]

31. No. I should have added ...

... that my son is currently in college, is voting for the first time, and he tells me most of the other students he knows -- in fact, almost all of them -- are voting for Kerry. That's what gives me hope. Being of little faith, I need all the hope I can get.

[AmerDem]

13. no

not in the least!

[shivaji]

14. Never did, do not now, and never will

[sonicx]

15. if the Kerry campaign says private polls look good, i trust those.

They have no reason to artificially deflate or inflate numbers.

[seabeyond]

16. nope n/t

[Child_Of_Isis]

17. No. Nada. Zilch! n/t

[Spazito]

19. Polls are like computers, garbage in = garbage out....

I trust my instincts over polls and my instincts say Kerry all the way.

[TwilightZone]

20. I'm having a hard time believing any of them, particularly those with big

swings up and down. I find it difficult to believe that there could be large daily swings in voter opinion this late in the campaign.

If the polls are, in fact, decidedly suspect, the exit polls may prove to be similarly suspect. I hope that Kerry wins by enough popular votes in battleground states and gets enough electoral votes to make a challenge to the results impossible, or we may end up with a repeat of 2000.

Only worse!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. The Exit Polls Should Be 99.99% Accurate

because they are asking a finite group of people what they did...


They are not asking a finite group of people what they are going to do and then make inferences that apply to a larger universe...

[TwilightZone]

24. True.

It's still a representative sample, but you're right - it's based on action, not intent.

[spanone]

22. Useless at this point.

[JHBowden]

23. YES.

Polling is done is a scientific manner. I think three things may happen which may alter the results --

1) Undecides may break for Bush because of 911 emotions
2) Democratic turnout may be higher than what is projected
3) Unpolled cell phone voters will go to Kerry.

I'm looking to see if and how these factors affect the end result.

[Awsi Dooger]

25. Yes, I trust polls as a general indication, especially national polls

Especially an average of the polls that use a sensible model of partisan turnout.

But I use several guidelines and modifers to evaluate and/or amend state polls, including the logical variation between the national mood and a specific state.

Incumbent races are unique with the undecideds to challenger variable. If Kerry wins via that advantage, it is very likely Democrats will overstate the benefit of things like cell phone users and our registration drives.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. I Agree With Two .... One And Three I Question...

Why would undecideds break for Bush because of 9-11?

If they haven't decided by now that Bush is their daddy why would they decide he's their daddy now however I have seen this explanation proffered in the press ... I don't buy it...


Your third point is interesting and requires more investigation...


"Unpolled cell phone users will go for Kerry".


I haven't seen any evidence to warrant the conclusion that the absence or presence of a cell phone affects your political preference...

What would lead you to believe someone with a cell phone as opposed to someone with a land line would have different political preferences?

[Walt Starr]

26. Nope, polls are to be ignored completely the last ten days of any election

Tey are notoriously untrustworthy for anything other than looking at the trends, and the trends are all in favor of Kerry.

[DeadManInc]

27. Polls

I think they lean to whichever side is paying them.

[flaminbats]

29. not after 2002..

IMO the only thing a reliable poll sometimes shows us is if the election is close.

[GRLMGC]

30. Not really

They shift way too much for me to lend any credence to them. I'll just wait for Nov 2.