Faulty Polling: Polls and Voter Registration are Opposed Realities

[ciaobox]

Something hit me today and i'd like to share it with DU. I have personally been ignoring all polls and TV news for two weeks now -- and have been encouraging others here and elsewhere to do the same.

Then it struck me today and I said "duh!".

In nearly every state new voter registration is off the charts. This is especially true in swing states. When you read the methadology of any of the major polls INCLUDING Zogby, they always poll "Likely" voters.

Now, adding the whole anti cell phone bias and rural bias of most polls, we must consider this: Most polls are not considering the massive swell of new registrants in their 'likely voter' definitions. As such, they are discounting the massive edge the Dems have gained in the new voter registration game. In states like Ohio, this edge could be as high as 5-10 percent. When you couple this reality with let's say a 1% cell phone bias and a 1% rural bias...you see where I am going? Each of these polls will be slanted towards Bush by as much as 7%-10%. I have been saying for a long time my "gut" tells me that these polls are off by 10%+ but I have not been able to quantify why until today.

I truly believe that in states where the Dems have outperformed on new registrations, we need to add a minimum 7% to any national media poll. If we accept my highly unscientific view as fact for a moment and look at the http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/ map, here are Kerry's results:

Nevada: 55%
Oregon: 59%
Washington: 59%
Arizona: 55%
Colorado: 53%
Minnesota: 56%
Wisconsin: 55%
Iowa: 54%
Missouri: 55%
Arkansas: 53%
NM: 59%
Ohio: 61%
Mississippi 52%
WV: 55%
Virginia: 55%
NC: 52%
Florida: 57%
NH: 57%
SD: 52%
PA: 58%

This doesn't mean we can let up...we still need to work 24/7 over the next week. But we should be working with CONFIDENCE that a Kerry landslide is coming.

[debatepro]

1. How about the "im working" causality.

More and more people have to work bad hours for better money or same money. So its missing people like me that are working late because I get the shaft in the bush economy. The reason they aren't getting many democrats is bc we are working.

[Laamka]

2. I agree

I thought of this too, and coupled with the way the polls start with a greater percentage of Republicans than Democrats, I think we may see something other than the tight race everyone's projecting.

[newyawker99]

3. Hi Laamka!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast: