Time magazine: 51% Bush, 46% Kerry?

[tomfodw]

Anyone see this? It was just reported on Ch. 11 local news in NYC.

[Atman]

1. Time, as in Time-Warner, as in CNN

They need this to better the "average" of the CNN Poll Of Polls. The real polls kept coming in too close, or with Bush down. Toss in a high number, it brings Bush's average up.

Time-Warner has a LOT to lose if Bush doesn't win.

Remember...for the Corporate Whores, it's all about the money, not America.

[Blue_Roses]

3. the same "Time" that had Bush up by 11 and 14 after the GOP convention

:eyes: give me an effing break...so glad I canceled my subscription to this rag.

[kentuck]

2. Ignore all polls...

We know what we have to do.

[featherman]

4. this was out a few days ago

bad poll as usual - please ignore

[ruggerson]

5. This is an OLD poll

[question everything]

6. Newsweek put them in a tie 46% each

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6312421/site/newsweek/

In the national horserace, Bush-Cheney and Kerry-Edwards are tied 46 percent to 46 percent among registered voters. Ralph Nader and his running mate Peter Camejo, on the ballot in only 34 states and Washington DC, receive 2 percent of the vote. Six percent of registered voters are undecided. Among likely voters, the Bush-Cheney ticket leads 48 percent to 46 percent for Kerry-Edwards, with 1 percent for Nader-Camejo and 5 percent undecided. In last week’s poll (Oct. 14-15), Bush-Cheney led 48 percent to 46 percent among registered voters, and 50 percent to 44 among likely voters. This week’s poll cuts the president’s lead among likely vot­ers by more than half, well within the plus or minus 3-point margin of error.


And you can vote there and Kerry is winning 78%

[DemFromMem]

7. When to not pay attention to a poll

1. When they report likely voters instead of registered voter (pollsters based this on assumed turnouts and they don't have a clue this year)

2. When they overweigh the Republican vote (all indicators are that more Democrats vote than Republicans (that was true during the last two presidential elections and is likely to be the case this year as well) but several pollsters are assuming Republicans will vote in larger numbers

Do we know which Time poll this is. Time partners with CNN as well as separately with SRBI?

For a good analysis of which polls are more reliable, go to http://tis.goringe.net/pop/scatter.html.