Zogby is going to cream us tomorrow.

[Teaser]

Just so you know...his national tracking poll will be really bad, unless Kerry polled well today.

He's got 2 big Bush data points on there. Until they go, it'll be nothing but pain to read his poll.

[endnote]

1. Probably fluctuations due to noise.

[Teaser]

24. I certainly agree.

Just getting this out there.

[swag]

2. Fine

We'll fight harder then.

[RummyTheDummy]

3. Who cares

Polls are meaningless at this point. Prove me wrong.

[Teaser]

23. I won't...I just want to make sure the panickers

are fully informed. Maybe they'll panic less.

Me, I look at all the tracking polls moving different directions and I see that there are *no* trends...at least no trends that the polls are picking up.

[lanparty]

29. Beyond the margin of error ...

Well, I have to agree. Beyond the fact that all the polls have differences within their margin of error, they cannot account for the massive amount of new voters. They also cannot effectively reached the 18-20 somethings that have cell phones and cable modems instead of land lines.

This is a radically different election. And I think the pollsters will have to remodel all their techniques after Nov 2.

[napi21]

4. Thats OK, I want it to stay this way!

I want the polls to keep bouncing back and forth! I don't want Kerry to show ahead, because some people will just say he doesn't need my vote, I'll just stay home.

[unfrigginreal]

5. Freeps are saying that on his radio show Drudge claimed that

Bush would be up 7. Who knows?

[Scoopie]

10. So what?

We don't vote nationally.
We vote state-by-state.
What good is a national poll?
15 people in Alabama vs. 15 people in New York?
It's not EC-sound.

[tritsofme]

12. There is a reason that

the winner of the popular vote has lost the EV only a few times in our history.

[Was_Immer]

15. I dont doubt it

Bush 120% Kerry -10%

f*ck them moron freepers

[Awsi Dooger]

22. That would require three straight days averaging +7 polling

Zogby uses a 3-day average. I looked at Zogby's site and it listed a 50-43 day for Bush, second straight big day. I think someone on DU gave 49-46 as the Bush number a day earlier. To be up 7, Bush would have needed a +11 day today. That's extremely unlikely, but if true it means Kerry probably is losing ground nationwide.

If Kerry broke even today, Bush's theoretical margin will be in the 4 point range tomorrow, according to Zogby.

[Mark H]

25. Freeps are saying that on his radio show Drudge claimed that

Freeps are saying that on his radio show Drudge claimed that


And drudge is a reliable source since when?

[jefferson_dem]

6. Yup. And we'll have to wait till Wed for yesterady's freakish polling

day to fall off. Oh well. We will fight harder for sure!

[diamond14]

7. "the polls are all over the place, like diarhhea" (Michael Moore)

wise words....time to ignore any further polls...these people know nothing, but are THRILLED to be soaking in reTHUGlican money...Zogby and others are getting rich off reTHUGlicans, draining the RNC money...hahahahaha...more power to them....but simply generating useless stuff....

bush* will soon awaken to REALITY....the VOTES of WE THE PEOPLE....
(now that's a NO-SPIN Zone)....

[Tempest]

8. Anyone who believes the polls is a fool

Zogby is good, but even he admits his polls are as flawed as everyone elses.


1) No one is polling younger voters.

2) No one is polling cell-phone only users (which are mostly younger voters).

3) Pollsters are over-emphasizing Repugs based upon old voter data.

[lanparty]

30. All polls are weighted on turn out ...

And they weight those polls based on historical performance. Voter numbers as a percentage of population has consistently gone DOWN during the "polling era". This election will probably reverse that trend with the massive new voter registration.

The pollsters have NO historical precedence to model such a surge in new voters. But I'll give them a hint. When you "unbias" the polls for turnout Democrats win virtually every time. Well, guess what happens when the "unnaccounted for" show back up to the polls ?????

[Tempest]

49. Polls are weighted on turnout from ancient elections

Recent elections have shown a greater turnout from Democrats, yet the pollsters are still favoring Republicans in their survey numbers.

And that's why the polls are bullshit.

[whistle]

9. The polls can't measure what people are not telling them and only....

...7% of the attempted calls ever get through and of those about half of the people who answer refuse to talk with the interviewers. That is only about a 3.5% response rate, which means the pollsters have no idea what the other 96.5% of the people are thinking or will vote. A 96.5% non-response bias are in all national polls. Who are you going to believe?

[lanparty]

33. Who is more likely to talk!?!?!??!!?!?!?

The pollsters apply models based on historical precedence. But I know damn well who most of the folks are that won't talk to pollsters. They are BUSY people who have no time for pollsters.

In the future, I think that pollsters will have to resort to VERY large pools of email addresses and then randomnly select a sample from those addresses. I bet people would be more likely to respond to a poll if they can do it on their OWN time instead of in the middle of dinner!!!!

[whistle]

56. Exactly, that will have to be the approach and is widely being used...

...now. However, like direct mail, random email solicitations are also largely ignored by recipients. But, the process does seem to yeild larger responses with certain proven techniques, like follow-up reminders and nudges. The reason telephone surveys are still favored is because they can be conducted quickly and responses are accessible almost immediately (CATI databases can be regularily monitored) and of course the interviewer interaction with the respondent also allows for a degree of control and screening to validate the respondent's answers.

[LSK]

11. lol the polls are flip flopping!!!!

[goclark]

19. I believe they take turns

saying something "good" for ReCons and Bad for Democrats.
That keeps everyone checking their polls.

They all win when they say, at this pt. in the game, it's "too close to call."

[Paradise]

20. funny! :) n/t

[lanparty]

34. Probably true ... They're like arms dealers ...

... they make more money when they sell to BOTH sides and keep the conflict going!!!!

[zulchzulu]

13. 24 hours is an eternity in politics

Polls now are like crack. Read them like a story that's a week old.

[DemFromMem]

14. Meantime, Rasmussen today gives Kerry best numbers since August

Kerry is trailing by .4%. If it makes you feel better, pick the poll with the best results that day or go have a chocolate bar. The polls are all close enough at this point that the only thing that matters now is turnout. The GOP needs Bush up by way more than he is to make up for an expected large turnout of Dems next week. So stop torturing yourself worrying about the polls and focus on the more important issue of how the hell we're going to make sure all our people get to the polls and get their votes counted.

[lanparty]

36. WRONG !!!

The Repukes DO NOT need Bush up by big numbers. Thats ancillary. They need to pull out EVERY dirty trick in the book to keep Democratic voters AWAY from polling places!!!!

Don't think they aren't doing it. I personally think that we will be in court again over all those "provisional ballots". And once again, the Republicans will be the ones who DO NOT WANT VOTES COUNTED!!!!

[cubsfan forever]

51. Hear, Hear!

Even Zogby says that polls are nothing more than a "snapshot of a moving train." The ONLY thing that matters is to GET OUT THE VOTE!!

Professor 2

[RobertSeattle]

16. Most polls have Red Sox - Cardinals Series tied 1-1

:evilgrin:

[undercover_brother]

32. too funny

[TimeToGo]

17. Have trouble believing it

What has happened that would give him a boost? Nothing -- nothing positive at all. All news has been negative. For his numbers to rise significantly it would mean that a significant number of people would have had to shift to him. Can't see it -- anything is possible on election day, of course, but not now.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

18. true

[AndyTiedye]

40. Bush* Gets a Boost From All the Media Whoring for Him

That is all he has going for him, but we must not underestimate the
power of the mighty wurlitzer once it gets going.

Kerry can run some ads, but that's nothing compared to the hours
and hours of pro-Booosh programming every day. Sinclair has fired
the opening shot for their grand finale, and now the networks are
Hell-bent for the election of George Dubya Booosh.

[WoodrowFan]

50. it's the wolf ads

it's the wolf ads doing it! WEIIEEEE WOLF! WOLF!

[ciaobox]

21. WHO CARES! Ignore all polls

Kerry LANDSLIDE

[kayleybeth]

26. Polls Schmolls

Let's focus on GOTV November 2. That's what will win this election for us :-)

[Doctor_J]

27. i still see this election as win-win

if * somehow remains in office, things are going to get real bad, real fast, and soon thereafter he and all the rest of the anti-american right will be cast aside one way or another.

[dennis4868]

28. what did the Zogby poll show today?

[Awsi Dooger]

37. Overall it was 48-46 Bush

But Zogby included in his summary a notation that Bush polled 50-43 yesterday, the first time either candidate had managed 50+%. The previous day was also big for Bush, so this thread is a necessary warning of the depressing number we're likely to see tomorrow morning.

[ClassWarrior]

31. Does he use Uri Gellar or Karnak the Magnificent?

Or a Majik 8 Ball??

24.

[goodwalt]

35. Teaser, I see that you have

more than a thousand posts, so I can't write you off as a freeper. At the same time, every post I have seen from you is full of shit- some vague allusion to rumors you have heard, with this post being a classic example. Is Mr. Zogby doing the wild thing with your sister? If not, I question your inside track on tomorrows events. Thanks for the entirely unfounded gloom prediction. If you will give me your sisters home address, I'll have a more optomistic prediction for you tomorrow.

[sonicx]

38. No inside info. Zogby himself said that bush had great polling days on

FRI and SAT. Therefore, if he has a decent polling day on SUN, he will do up in the overall 3-day tracking released tommorrow.

[goodwalt]

39. Well whoopdi friggin doo

I guess he will get a gold star beside the comment in the history books noting his resounding loss in the 2004 election. MOST polls ARE BULLSHIT! In 2000 Gallup, the nation's premier bullshit pollster, had Bush up by eight points, and he LOST the popular vote! Polling DOES matter in predicting races, but the threshold question is WHO's polling numbers are you quoting? In this race, I GUARAN-FUCKING-TEE that there is a 7 to 10 percentile group out there that is not being counted, and that they break PROFOUNDLY in Kerry's favor. I KNOW this, because I have seen TAPED FOOTAGE of people waiting in lines for hours. People don't do that for the status quo- they do it because they are pissed, and want a change. I am sick and tired of "Dems" wringing hands over Mason-Dixon, Gallup, and Strategic Vision Polls. WAKE THE FUCK UP! This is a tactic to suppress our vote.

[AndyTiedye]

42. SINCAIR'S Hit Piece Aired Friday Night

giving Boooosh a nice little boooost. Thanks Sinclair Broadcasting :grr:

[Teaser]

41. ...

Every post you see by me is gloomy huh?
Look harder, coolio.
Whatever.

[goodwalt]

43. So please explain why it is...Oh

I'm sorry, didn't do that in my "Coolio voice"
Yo Yo, So whuzz up wid yo inside line on de straight Zogby dope? Why izz it dat they be dissin on ma man Kerry tomorrow? And how is it that you know so much (sorry- fell right out of my coolio voice, but it gets tired) about a major pollster's unpublished predictions. Please share, or lose all credibility with the accounts recieving homies.

[goodwalt]

44. It is sad to reply to your own

post- but the answer is- yeah, I thought so. Spare me any more unsupported gloom and doom posts. Truthful bad news- yeah, I'll take that. Better to know than not. But specious negative bullshit? Man, I've already got cable. If you insist on posting bad shit, either back it up, or spend your time on Hannity's site with the rest of the freepers.

[Teaser]

46. Look below newbie.

Look below.

[Teaser]

45. "+" & "/"

Just so you know that the issue of my credibililty with some relative newbie is not exactly at the forefront of my mind. However, given that I can't sleep, explaining 4th grade math to you might kill some time.

Zogby telegraphed his single night numbers yesterday and this morning. Using this you can figure out that the first day in the sample was a *very large* Kerry number. We also know that this first day rolls off tonight. So unless Kerry get's a very large lead in Sunday night's polling, he'll be more behind tomorrow than he is today.

It's certainly possible that Kerry got a big bump tonight. I hope so, but if the race is tied (more or less) as Zogby's previous data indicate, large excursions from this mean are less likely, either to Kerry's detriment or advantage. The most likely scenario is a tie, which will still lead to an expansion in Bush's lead, as Bush's numbers will be something like
49 50 46 and Kerry 46 43 46. This yields a 3 point Bush lead: 48 to 45. Compare this to today's 48 to 46. If Bush has a slight edge in the actual number Zogby is sampling, things could look even worse.

Other results are possible, and to be hoped for. But this seems the most probable result.

Now, I know I majored in mathematics and physics, but the use of the "+" and "/" operators in a 3 day moving average isn't exactly rocket science. This isn't even a windowed moving average. Just a straight boxcar filter.

Anyhow, I hope my worry is off base. I would hate to be dismissed as a troll again. Oh God, that hurt.

[goodwalt]

47. So how about this, we call it a

truce. By virtue of the fact that we are both posting on DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND, it is a good bet that we are batting for the same team. But man, when I saw the heading of your post- which by the way, even after your number rich/language poor explanation thereof, I still don't understand the reasoning behind,- I was pissed. WE. ARE NOT. GETTING CREAMED. ANYWHERE. ANYHOW. I profoundly, and sincerely believe that- and not in a Pollyannish sort of way, but in a way that is backed up by lines of voters waiting hours to cast their ballots in Florida kinda way. I DO believe that you are on our side. I DO NOT believe that you help the cause with posts headed with language that we are getting creamed. Sorry if I got your goat. For what it is worth, my goat is gonna need a vacation in the Bahamas to get over you. So how about it. Truce? Friends? How about a toast to differences on Nov. 3rd while Chimpy is packing his bags?

[Awsi Dooger]

48. Maybe I can simplify this

Zogby's daily tracking numbers -- that's a ONE DAY SAMPLE among his 3-day tracking number -- are normally available by subscription only. For whatever reason, he decided to leak the most recent one-day numbers the last two days on his website. Both favored Bush, 49-46 on Friday and 50-43 on Saturday.

Therefore, Bush lead by a combined 99-89 going into Sunday's one-day number. Thursday's sample, which was obviously pro-Kerry given Sunday's 48-46 Zogby 3-day tracking number, will be dumped beginning Monday. It is perfectly reasonable, if not appropriate, for Teaser to warn DU that Zogby's Monday release will trend against Kerry.

Let's say Bush and Kerry were hypothetically even at 47-47 in Sunday's Zogby daily sample. That totals 146 for Bush and 136 for Kerry. So that's a 3-day average of 48.67 for Bush and 45.33 for Kerry. Zogby may well round those figures to 49 Bush and 45 Kerry. (on edit: obviously I'm using daily percentages when Zogby will use raw voter totals, which we do not have access to, in calculating his 3-day number)

On Wednesday, Zobgy will have dumped both the Friday and Saturday samples from his 3-day tracking, each heavily pro-Bush. The race will probably tighten, in Zogby's terms. If you insist, I'll bet Teaser will be glad to post a happy Zogby prediction thread Tuesday night.

[Bozos for Bush]

54. Maybe be should rename this site teaser.com

In honor of our new owner.

'nuff said.

[DemocracyInaction]

52. Two comments

First, unless I read by Reuters wrong today, Kerry slipped today (Monday) to 45 and Bush retained at 48 (a three point spread). Second, it's been my observation that Bush always seems to pick up a head of steam on weekend polling and then falls off/or Kerry picks up by mid week. It must have something to do with who is answering phones and replying during certain times.

[endnote]

53. Good point. Repugs are staying home watching FOX

during the weekend.

[ollie3]

60. Do The Math!

These three day rolling poll numbers can get confusing!

But let's look at some math here.

It was reported above that Zogby said that the Friday DAILY numbers were: Bush 49 and Kerry 46. And the DAILY numbers Bush 50 and Kerry 43.

Now we have reported today (Monday) the results Zogby received yesterday (Sunday) for the THREE DAY average, which included the days of Fri/Sat/Sun.

With me so far?

So it is mathematically easy to project what Sunday's DAILY numbers were. For Bush, his three day is 48. So you multiply 48 by three. Then subtract Bush's daily totals we know (49 and 50). What's left is 45. This means that on Sunday, Bush's DAILY number was 45.

For Kerry, we use the same formula. Kerry's three day is 45, multiply by 3, then subtract his two daily numbers (46 and 43). That leaves 46 for Kerry's Sunday daily number.

So, if it is really right that the daily numbers for friday and saturday were as posted...then Kerry LEADS for Sunday's daily number 46/45, even though Bush leads on the three day average! Get it?

You can now track projected DAILY numbers using the above formula: take the three day number for a candidate, multiply by three and then subtract the DAILY numbers for the previous two days (not the three day numbers!).

So if you look at F/Sa/Su you get Kerry 46/43/46. For Bush you get 49/50/45. Daily numbers. Now, tomorrow, when we get the new three day average, you multiply it by three and subtract 46 and 43 for Kerry and 50 and 45 for Bush. And so forth.

I'm not sure this means all that much.

But one thing: there is nothing to panic about if you look at these numbers so far!!!!!

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

55. If bush had been CONSISTENTLY

polling above 50% ALL THIS TIME, and still was, I'd be worried.

But he hasn't. And he isn't.

No worries, mate. He's toast. (Barring any dirty election tricks.)

[Renew Deal]

57. It wasn't so bad.

And I expect tomorrow to be better.

[WI_DEM]

58. Kerry must have had a good Sunday

becuz I thought the same thing, since Bush was up by 7 on Saturday--and Zog said it was the second day of good polling for Bush, so if Fri and Sat were good for Bush and he just had a bump up to 3 points today--then I assume Sunday was pretty good for Kerry.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

59. yeah i read somewhere today that zogby will put bush way ahead..

wtf?