New Zogby poll

[helpisontheway]

Bush 48 Kerry 45 Not as bad as I thought it would be...

[helpisontheway]

1. Oh no...

Bush has a 12% lead on independents though. :-( Was Kerry leading independents prior to this?

[Dalvis]

3. its only because of...

...Zogby's skewed sample on Saturday. That was a great day for Bush. Now that things have evened up in the Sunday sample, things probably aren't that bad. Wait for Saturday to fall off of Zogby's rolling sample this Wednesday. Barring something unforeseen, Kerry ought to see an improvement in his numbers then.

[Harlan James]

30. Bush's mid-week deflating Zogby numbers...

...should mesh nicely with all the other indications of Bush's last minute political collapse.

[Maestro]

28. If the poll is this close

we win, no doubt. In Texas alone there were approximately 834,000 new registrants. I doubt the majority of them were republicans.

[Dalvis]

2. its not bad at all.....

According to Zogby his Friday daily sample was Bush-49, Kerry-46. His Saturday sample was Bush-50, Kerry-43. That means yesterday's result was something along the lines of Bush-46, Kerry-46. Kerry had a really good day yesterday compared to Fri. and Sat.

[jezebel]

4. Actually it means Bush would have been 44, 45, or 46 yesterday. Kerry had

to have been 45, 46, or 47. So once those 2 good days for * drop off, we're in good shape.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. I Have A Question... I Hope You're Here...

According to the Post's tracking poll Kerry had his best polling day since October, good enough to close a four point gap to one..


Does that mean that if Kerry had a decent day on Sunday, say tied or down by one he vaults into the lead...

A lead in the WAPO poll will make splashes...

[sonicx]

13. Kerry might get a lead. look at the chart

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

today's tracking will be(i think) an even day, a good kerry day, and an maybe another good kerry day (or even?)

[jezebel]

16. I can't find where WaPo lists the day by day totals, they just list the

track, so you can't figure it out exactly like you can do for Zogby.
But based on the fact that Kerry's day with WaPo 2 days ago was enough to bring him up 2 and Bush dropped 1, I am at least hopeful for a tie, if not a Kerry lead.
But it is ABC/WaPo so they'll probably just bump Bush back up.

[sonicx]

5. means Kerry had a good Sun.

hope he has a good Mon too.

link: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20041025/ap_on_el_pr/kerry&cid=694&ncid=2043

[fujiyama]

23. Sunday, Monday, Happy Days,

Tuesday, Wednesday Happy DAys.

I'm going crazy over this thing as you can tell :P

[helpisontheway]

6. Has Kerry always been trailing with independents?

Or is that just one day?

[Zynx]

10. He typically has lead.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. you fellas and gals need to get the real deal...

the real deal can be found at www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com



Much of the movement in tracking polls is what statisticians call variance within the margin of error or noise...

In fact Professor Abramowitz demonstrates that the four national tracking polls are inversely correlated..

It is more likely that if a candidate goes up in one he goes down in another..

This is a close race ,folks, and I like our chances especially with all the bad news which is a result of Bush's malfeasance...

[in_cog_ni_to]

8. 48 is important.

As long as the chimp stays under 49-50 he's gonna lose because the "undecideds" vote the opposition. At least that's what the talking heads say. ;) :hi: PLUS, this doesn't take into account the newly registered college/cell phone user crowd. :bounce: 8 days away from the election? The chimp should be doing MUCH better. He's TOAST!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Gallup Had Ford At The Magical 50 In 76 And He Lost...

I believe he got 48.5% of the vote...

[in_cog_ni_to]

12. Cool!

It's looking excellent for the "good guys!"

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. That Was Suprising...

I never thought Carter was in danger of losing that race...

[unfrigginreal]

15. Excellent! Kerry had a good day yesterday.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. You Should Click On Post 7 And Read Prof Abramowitz's Piece

I will note that Zogby had Gore down by four on 11/2/00 before he closed...


Most of these movements are noise but make for exciting copy...

[unfrigginreal]

20. I already read the piece and don't disagree with any of it

Until the election though, I'll continue to be circumspect about every negative movement and cheerlead any positive movement in a tracking poll. We have momentum to create.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. What About The Point He Makes That The Tracking Polls Are Going In

different directions?


The four national tracking polls TIPP, Zogby, Rasmussen, and WAPO are supposed to be measuring the same universe of voters as well as essentially making the same assumptions about the composition of the electorate but their tracking polls are inversely correlated...


That doesn't make sense....


And anecdotally, the WAPO Poll indicated Saturday was Kerry's best day of polling since October 1 and Zogby said Kerry lost Saturday 50% -43%...



Abramowitz compares the results from tracking polls to conventional national polls and concludes their results are similar but his
contention that day to day movements within the margin of error can probably be assigned to statistical variance or noise is a sound one..

[unfrigginreal]

25. I think he makes an excellent point for disregarding all tracking polls

but, they can't be ignored as long as they're an accepted measure in the publics eye. We're not going to convince anyone in 1 weeks time that they're too volatile to be taken seriously. So, as I said above, I'll be using the data to create momentum in our direction.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. I Agree 100%....

Perception is everything...

Pat Buchanan was flogging a WAPO poll that showed us down six last Wednesday....


We are down by one in that poll now.....

If Buchanan was honest he would say Bush is gone because of the swing in momentum against him...

[NJCher]

17. not only that but check the Washington Post

Apparently the repukes are looking at their internal polling and it's not looking so good.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A57458-2004Oct23.html

One Republican official described the mood at the top of the campaign as apprehensive. " 'Grim' is too strong," the official said. "If we feel this way a week from now, that will be grim."




Cher

[still_one]

19. First of all relative to zogby it is an issue

bush now has gone from a lead of 2 to 3 points

The reason I am not particularly concerned is because the state polls, especially the battleground states look quite good for Kerry

[WI_DEM]

21. Kerry must have had a good day on Sunday

becuz per Zogby on yesterday, on Sat Bush was up 50-43 and he said it was the second good Bush day in a row.

[mvd]

24. Good - Bush's momentum was stopped

Would have been a bit concerned if Bush had a third good day in a row. I think the middle scenario (without rounding) gives Kerry 46, Bush 45 yesterday.

[59millionmorons]

27. Don't worry

Just wait to Wednesday, Bush had a huge day on Saturday and it will drop off Tuesday. So the race should be tied or Kerry could be ahead if he is just tied in the daily numbers Monday and Tuesday.

[John_H]

29. I hope help is on the way for you pardner. 'cause this poll is inside the

margin. Which meAns it's a turnout race. which means we win. LOL!