But the fundamentals in this race haven't changed much. The onus is still on the incumbent. Bush can't do a whole lot to change the public's perception of him and he remains stuck under 50%. That is amazing for a 'wartime' incumbent president. Kerry, on the other hand, has an opportunity to start creeping ahead as the undecideds (most want change) pull in behind him.
There is a Perot dynamic going on where most of the Nader vote is coming from dissatisfied republicans who were encouraged earlier on to donate money and vote for Ralph in the primaries. A lot of fence sitting conservatives will just sit this one out rather than vote for Bush as they have no love for government anyway, and no respect for the political process.
Most folks show up to cast a negative vote. That will come out of Bush's hide. John Kerry just hasn't become a lightning rod for ordinary voters, despite the swift boat mess and the efforts by the White House to define him as outside the mainstream. There is a historic divergence of interests and concerns that are threatened by the Bush presidency and these folks will show up in droves to vote for Kerry, each with their own pet peeve, aggravated by Bush's indifference and obstinance.
Proud to Be a Democrat
A first grade teacher in the Midwest is explaining to her class that she is a Republican and how nice it is that a new Republican president has taken office. She asks her students to raise their hands if they, too, are Republicans and support George Bush. Everyone in class raises their hands except one little girl. "Mary," says the teacher with surprise, "why didn't you raise your hand?" Because I'm not a Republican," says Mary. "Well, what are you?" asks the teacher. "I'm a Democrat and proud of it," replies the little girl. The teacher cannot believe her ears. "My goodness, Mary, why are you a Democrat?" she asks. "Well, my momma and papa are Democrats, so I'm a Democrat, too." "Well," says the teacher in an annoyed tone, "that's no reason for you to be a Democrat. You don't always have to be like your parents. What if your momma was a criminal and your papa was a criminal, too, what would you be then?" Mary smiled. "Then we'd be Republicans."
http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/jokes/bljokeprouddemocrat.htm