Am I to understand that we will lose at least one of WI, MN, IA and NM?

[rockymountaindem]

Because that seems to be the word around here. Will we lose one? Which one will it be? Perhaps we'll hang on to all of them? I'm so confused...

[Lefta Dissenter]

1. Well,

we're NOT LOSING WISCONSIN! :bounce:

[helpisontheway]

5. People are saying that we are more likely to

lose Iowa and Wisconsin. I think Bush is leading in both right now (not overwhelmingly but I think it has been a trend). HOwever, I think I read something about more dem votes so far with early voting in Iowa. New Mexico was close last time so I'm sure it could go either way. Maybe Richardson will be able to help us. I'm not sure.

[JuniorPlankton]

2. We could...

Fear works wonders :(

Shouldn't change the outcome of the election, though.

:kick:

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. Wisconsin has consistantly polled poorly for Kerry....

so I have to say Wisconsin may be lost.

We should prepare to loose one State because it is possible.

However, we can pick up New Hampshire (4 EV's). We need to do well in Florida, Ohio, Arkansas, Colorado, and Virginia.

[rockymountaindem]

8. Sorry, Colorado and Virginia aren't gonna happen.

We've got a better shot in Nevada.

[kikiek]

4. We aren't losing MN either.

Local poll they did recently had 44 pct repugs and 33 pct dems. They will give the results tonight, but I don't expect them to accurate to be honest.

[trotsky]

14. Heard some results this morning.

On the right-wing Hubbard station - Rasmussen poll indicates * is up 48-46. Of course when they reported a poll with Kerry having a 5 point lead, they made SURE to mention it was a "statistical tie."

Then I heard about the over-sampling of Republicans. MN, while having elected a couple of Repukes lately, is still solidly Democratic and has far more Democrats than 'pukes.

Bottom line, it's bullshit.

[secular_warrior]

6. My gut tells me we'll lose NM and win the other three

but some folks say it looks like MN will actually go over to the dark side this time, as it and the upper midwest in general has been trending Repub over the past few elections.

[trotsky]

15. Not MN - don't believe it.

Its "trending Repub" is only due to two snafus:

1) Repukes managed to tar & feather Democrats in 2002 by screaming that we had exploited the Wellstone memorial. They were able to turn the election into a referendum on the memorial rather than about who would be the best senator for MN, and thus we got stuck with the Teeth from Brooklyn.

2) Pawlenty "won" the governorship because a liberal Democrat (Roger Moe) and a conservative Democrat (Tim Penny - running as an Independent) split a majority of the vote. I think Pawlenty only got in the low 40% range, but it was a plurality.

[BJ]

7. That's just TeeVee crap.

[Bridget Burke]

9. Oh, no! Nobody will tell you what to think!

Why don't you just keep working & hoping--for now?

[DemPopulist]

10. Honestly

I don't think we necessarily lose any of them. By all rights, given Nader and the overall closeness, we should've lost one of them in 2000 (and probably Oregon too). I suspect the trends favoring Kerry nationwide and reflected in states like Ohio & Florida will push him over in these four as well.

[speedoo]

11. K/E has two problems in Wisconsin.

1. There is not much of an unemployment problem.

2. The state has very high property taxes and the shrub's whining about Kerry as a tax & spend liberal appears to have some traction there.

However, any state that can re-elect Feingold so easily is clearly winnable by K/E. It's all about turnout.

[sybylla]

16. Wisconsin will go to Kerry, I'd bet on it

Wisconsin always goes the direction that Madison and Milwaukee go. Madison is very liberal and with Gwen Moore running for the 8th CD in Milwaukee, she'll bring in another 100,000 votes for Kerry easy.

Plus, the polls have been hosed since before Kerry was the candidate. One poll has the Dem ahead, the next has the chimp ahead. That makes them all suspicious. But as an active Dem party member, I have to say that there has been a huge surge of activity here for Dem candidates. We have a very progressive tradition here and I give kudos to Howard Dean for awakening that spirit here again and bringing progressive Dems out of the woodwork. Dems will be out in record numbers this year.

Wisconsin will go to Kerry.

[Czolgosz]

12. I haven't been to WI or IA, but I've been to MN and NM and it looks

like Kerry Country to me. We'll win NM and MN, and I'll let other more familiar with WI and IA make predictions about those states.

[quaoar]

13. I think Iowa might go Bush

But we have Ohio and Florida, which means it doesn't matter.

BTW, the Republicans campaigning in New Mexico recently said that if they don't get a massive turnout there, they are going to lose that state.