FPC NH Poll - KERRY 50% bush 41% - Evidence of GOP defections

[unfrigginreal]

FRANKLIN PIERCE COLLEGE POLL SHOWS KERRY LEADING BUSH AMONG NEW
HAMPSHIRE VOTERS; GOVERNOR’S RACE TIED; UNDECIDEDS TILTING NOTICEABLY
TOWARDS BUSH; REPUBLICANS SAFELY AHEAD IN CONGRESSIONAL RACES;
REPUBLICAN DEFECTION, DOMESTIC ISSUES, GENDER GAP, INDEPENDENTS
HEPLING KERRY AND LYNCH; FOREIGN POLICY, PARENTS, YOUNG PROFESSIONALS
ANCHORING BUSH AND BENSON; NEITHER RED NOR BLUE: PURPLE HAZE OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

A Franklin Pierce College (FPC) poll of 453 likely New Hampshire voters (+/-4.6% margin of error)
shows Sen. John Kerry leading President George W. Bush in the presidential race, 50.1 to 41.3%, with
Ralph Nader polling 1.3%. 45% approve and 52% disapprove of the President’s job performance. Gov.
Craig Benson (R) and challenger, John Lynch (D) are tied, 45 to 45%. Interestingly, among New
Hampshire Republicans, the President’s approval rating is 76%; he is polling 74%; Benson is polling
68%.

Frank Cohen, FPC’s Polling Director, says, “One would expect Republicans, based on nationwide
numbers and historical statewide trends, to poll much higher for President Bush and Governor Benson.
The President’s and Governor’s problems in New Hampshire may stem from the unique rate of defection of New Hampshire Republicans from their camps.”

snip

Of the sample, registered Republicans make up 38.4%, Democrats 25.8%, independents 35.8%. Official, statewide registration figures show Republicans at 33.1% of the electorate, Democrats at 28.2%, and independents at 38%. Republicans are overrepresented in the sample, which highlights Kerry’s lead. 80% of Democrats support Kerry; 70% support Lynch; but Democrats strongly favor the all-Republican congressional incumbents. Independents support Kerry at 62.3%, Lynch at 69.2%, and strongly favor the all-Republican congressional incumbents.

http://www.fpc.edu/pages/institutes/poll/poll_04_1025.pdf

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A worrisome note about undecideds: Cohen says, “Bottom line, the undecided make the New Hampshire race much closer than the decided make it appear. The Bush campaign should find solace in the preferences of the undecided voters and should continue to emphasize national security.”

[fujiyama]

1. NH

looking good. BTW anyone know when the last time a dem won NH but lost the WH?

[JuniorPlankton]

2. Yeah, that's really scary

about the undecideds.

Let's hope it's either not true or not representative for the country.

[secular_warrior]

5. From what I know NH is an independent minded libertarian state,

and neither really Repub or really Dem. They are very anti-tax, but secular and liberal on social issues.

[JuniorPlankton]

6. I know, I know

Still, if the go against the "undecided voters go the challenger" CW, it's a source of concern.

[AP]

8. Perhaps a lot of them were always Bush supporters who were embarrassed

to admit it. Polling at 41% vs 50% at this stage is really bad. You'd think that a lot of those undecideds are just Republicans who are afraid to say they're definitely voting for Bush.

[KharmaTrain]

3. They Waffle...That's Why They're Undecided...LOL

As Andy Rooney said, if you're still undecided, you're either not telling or stupid.

I'd love to poll any of these undecideds and see who they voted for in 2000. Also I'd love to get an equal number of those who claimed they were undecided at this point in the 2000 election and see if they're the same way this time around. There we'd surely see some interesting and strong support for Senator Kerry.

I'm firmly convinced those who remain undecided are former Bunnypants voter who are battling within themselves if they can stomache voting for this bastard or just not vote at all.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

4. bush is polling at 41% in NH?

Bad for him, very very bad. The incumbent has GOT to be consistently at or above (above is even better) 50% in polls. Especially this close.

NH belongs to Kerry. Mark my words.

[Thrill]

7. Maybe Chimpy shouldn't go around

acting like being from Mass. is a disease or something. That can't go over well in a fellow New England state.

[skippysmom]

9. Well, some NH people do think being from Mass is like a disease

But I can't imagine those people would be Dems. I think NH could definitely go blue.

[WI_DEM]

10. excellent, NH is one state I'm confident will jump from Bush to

Kerry and maybe we will even elect a governor.