If Kerry won New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Colorado, he could win without

[DaveSZ]

...Ohio and Florida (273 EVs).

Check it out:

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/politics101/politics101_ecmap.html

Zogby has Kerry ahead in Colorado, but gives Florida and Ohio to *:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

That seems odd no?

[DaveinMD]

1. Zogby's state polling

has long been suspect. Kerry will win OH and maybe FL

[DaveSZ]

2. Arkansas

If you give Kerry New Mexico and New Hampshire, and take away Colorado, he can still win with Arkansas.

Electoral-vote.com has Arkansas as a tie right now, and many polls also have it tied.

[cubsfan forever]

3. Yes, very odd

Since AWOL has basically given up in Ohio.

Professor 2

[DaveSZ]

5. I think Colorado will eventually be a blue state

Let's hope Salazar wins at least.

[cubsfan forever]

8. What do you think the odds

are that CO will only split its EVs if Kerry wins the state? If Chimpy wins (steals) the state, they will fall back on "tradition."

Professor 2

[dolstein]

4. Trust me, if Kerry wins CO, NM and NH, he's not going to lose OH and FL

NT

[DaveSZ]

6. That's true

nt

[fujiyama]

7. That's probably true

NH is looking very likely regardless, but I think CO will be a tough state to crack. I'm seriously suspicious of Zogby's numbers, for the simple reason that he has Kerry up by 4 in the state. No other poll has shown him with a lead there...On the contrary - Most have Bush up by around that same margin (of 4-5 points).

[F.Gordon]

9. Where Zogby may be off (or dead on) ...don't know

In the Colorado poll Kerry is leading by HUGE double digit numbers in the 18-34 age range. Over 34 years old the edge goes to bush* in all the age groups, but by single digits. (4%-7%)

Another interesting part of the Zogby poll is the Black Vote. Other polls that show bush* in the lead in Colorado are reporting Blacks voting as high 34% for bush*. Zogby has 100% of Black voters...voting for Kerry.

Also, the polls showing bush* leading are giving the Ind share fairly consistent with the 2000 elections. (this is the 2nd largest voting block in Colorado) Zogby has it bush*: 33% / Kerry 60%

A few more "numbers" from my post in the colorado forum...
================================================
bush* 45.4% / Kerry 49.0% / Other 2.6% / NS 3.1%

Denver Metro Region
bush* 41.1% / Kerry 55.5% / Other 1.7% / NS 1.6%

North & West Region
bush* 52.2% / Kerry 34.5% / Other 5.5% / NS 7.8%

South & East Region
bush* 49.4% / Kerry 46.9% / Other 1.8% / NS 1.9%

By Party: Democrat
bush* 8.1% / Kerry 87.0% / Other 2.1% / NS 2.8%

By Party: Republican
bush* 90.0% / Kerry 6.0% / Other 1.0% / NS 3.1%

By Party: Independent
bush* 32.8% / Kerry 60.3% / Other 3.4% / NS 3.5%

Summarizing a few other key stats....

Kerry is leading in Large and Small City totals and bush* is leading in suburbs and Rural. This is a bit confusing, since I would assume that the lead Kerry has in the "Denver Metro Region" would include suburbs.

Kerry is leading by 3% in "Investor Class" AND by 3% in those that make more than $75,000 per year.

Gender Male:
bush* 47.1% / Kerry 47.0%

Gender Female:
bush* 43.8% / Kerry 50.8%