Differing polls. Rasmussen has Kerry leading 48% - Bush 46 %

[Nicholas_J]

Monday October 25, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 48% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

This is the first time Senator Kerry has held the lead since August 23. The 48.4% for Kerry is the Senator's highest total since August 17. Data for this update is collected on a three-day rolling average basis and Senator Kerry held the lead on each of the three days of polling.

When "leaners" are included, Kerry leads 49% to 48%. Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for Bush or Kerry. We ask them a follow-up question to determine which way they are leaning at the moment.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[DemFromMem]

1. Welcome news

Sure, we can't get too giddy at the good polls or too glum at the bad ones, but this is a tracking poll that is good for spotting a trend. If we see several days of numbers like this, that will be a very good sign indeed.

[Nicholas_J]

2. Well, Robert Silvey's latest Ellectoral College Projections

HAve Kerry winning woth 277 EV.

He has suggestions for watching Polls. Only watch polls that have proven accurate in the past. Only use polls that watch Registered Voters, not Likely voters.