Kerry 277, Bush 261 electoral votes - Democratic Underground

Nicholas_J

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Mon Oct-25-04 11:20 AM
Original message

Kerry 277, Bush 261 electoral votes

Edited on Mon Oct-25-04 11:22 AM by Nicholas_J

Kerry 277, Bush 261 electoral votes.

In this latest projection, based on averages of all state-by-state polls conducted within the last 14 days, Ohio and Wisconsin have moved into the Kerry column since last week. Kerry leads for the first time in six weeks and is within 0.3 percent in Florida.

The chart shows weekly projections since March 18. Click for a larger view.

The alternate calculation of swing states shows the same result. Among the 19 swing states in 2000, Iowa (7 EVs) is on track to change from Democratic to Republican, while Ohio (20) and New Hampshire (4) are moving from Republican to Democratic.

http://www.robertsilvey.com/notes/2004_electoral_college_updates/index.html

Read Silveys notes on National Polls, suggests to only select polls that have been accurate in the past, and only watch them.

Also, only watch polls that indicate Regivtered Voters, not likely voters.

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Jack_Dawson

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Mon Oct-25-04 11:22 AM
Response to Original message

1. Dems win FL?

I've heard different...

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Nicholas_J

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Mon Oct-25-04 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #1

4. Dems still have a 360,000 lead in registered voters in Florida

And REpublicans have had a hell of a time pulling the kinds of pre-election tricks they pulled in 2000. They have been caught at every attempt to throw out registrations, have been stopped from throwing out early votes, and it appears that Democrats are coming out in the early votes at higher percentages than Republicans, so right now it is quite possible for Florida to go to Kerry.

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Thrill

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Mon Oct-25-04 11:22 AM
Response to Original message

2. I can't believe Vilsack

Edited on Mon Oct-25-04 11:23 AM by BrentTaylor

wont be able to deliver Iowa for us. We just can't lose states like Iowa and NM where we have Democrat governors

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Zuni

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Mon Oct-25-04 11:23 AM
Response to Original message

3. good news

I think Kerry will win bigger than this, and it will be a huge lead in the popular vote.

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Anarcho-Socialist

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Mon Oct-25-04 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #3

5. I agree I think Kerry electoral college votes will be 350+

Edited on Mon Oct-25-04 11:40 AM by The_Enlightenment

EDIT: Post 666 - scaaaaaary!

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NewYorkerfromMass

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Mon Oct-25-04 11:41 AM
Response to Original message

6. If Ohio and Wisconsin have moved into the Kerry column then it's over

They can even steal Florida and New Mexico

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livinbella

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Mon Oct-25-04 11:47 AM
Response to Reply #6

7. very interesting, it looks possible

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