Kerry leading Iowa?????

[Adjoran]

I just found this on the New Hampshire Public Radio site: http://www.nhpr.org/blogs/penpals2004/archives/000133.php

WARNING: This article is written by their "GOP Penpals," so I tried to verify it. I searched Google News ( http://news.google.com/ ) and came up with a link to Chicago Tribune, which is a subscription site. The description only says the poll measured DEFINITE caucus goers instead of "likely" and was conducted by a man named Selzer. If anyone is a Tribune subscriber, please post the whole poll article.


Here's the NHPR article, I am cut and pasting. The grammar and spelling are bad, but, like I said, it is written by a repub anyway:

--------------------------------------------------------

New Leader As Race Tighter Than Ever
By Eric Woolson on January 15, 2004

The mid-day news is Iowa is all about the new leader in the Democratic presidential race. Sen. John Kerry has eked ahead of his rivals, with 21 percent. Howard Dean has falled 4 points to 20 percent, tied with Rep. Dick Gephardt. And, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina has inched up a few points to 17 percent.

They're so close you could throw a blanket over all of them because they're all within the margin of error.

The question now: Is this poll reflecting the aforementioned voter volatility or are we seing a real trend? Actually, Kerry is only up marginally, but Dean was at 29 percent just a few days ago. He's receiving a few endorsements today, notably for Carole Moseley Braun, but it's uncertain how much, if any difference that will make in Iowa. We'll know on Monday where the polls are wrong, as is often the case, or if Dean has gone into a late-race freefall.

This is the point in the race when candidates are running on nothing but adrenaline, people are prone to making mistakes, the Iowa political climate becomes super-charged and things get very exciting.

---------------------------------------------------


This does seem to confirm the news of the last few days of Kerry's surge in Iowa.

My own feeling is that if Dean lost Iowa to Gephardt, it wouldn't hurt him that much. It would only mean that Gephardt might be able to raise enough money to compete in the Feb 3 primaries, which he probably won't if he doesn't win.

If Kerry actually wins Iowa, though, it definitely hurts Dean and Clark, because all the buzz leading up to NH will be the "resurgent Kerry campaign" and how "Dean falters" etc.

[dobak]

1. yep

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=584&e=3&u=/nm/20040115/pl_nm/campaign_poll_dc


Kerry - 21.6
Dean - 20.9
Gephardt - 20.9
Edwards - 17.1

[cthrumatrix]

2. the Iowa Paper that endorsed must have clout...corporations at work

[dobak]

3. no

The people of Iowa have seen the other options and like them more than Dean

[blm]

14. Those were SMALL town papers that endorsed Kerry.

The corporate media is still giving most of its oxygen to Dean, just as they have for almost a year now.

It seems to me there was plenty of outrage for the corporate media and its ignoring or attacking of the other candidates while promoting Dean for so long.

Was it important to notice back then?

[MoonRiver]

4. Very, very interesting.

I'm really looking forward to Monday! That will be an exciting night.

[BayCityProgressive]

6. That is ridiculous

I believe Edwards whom the paper endorsed has attacked major corporations much more than Howard Dean has. I am not bashing Dean, but Edwards is less corporate friendly than Dean.

[Khephra]

5. Dean's not in a "free fall"

The Undecideds are just becoming Decideds.

[oasis]

7. Kerry is the beneficiary of those who took the time to educate themselves.

[Monte Carlo]

11. Now, now, let's be nice...

... and not lecturing.

[On the Road]

8. Howard Dean has "Falled" 4 points?

[Meshuga]

9. Great for Kerry! Let's get some momentum!

That's great for Kerry! I hope this creates some momentum for his campaign. I am a 100% Kerry supporter but if things don't work out for him I'm hoping for an Edwards or Clark to get the nomination.

[Killarney]

10. Wow!

I'm surprised. Good for Kerry. This is getting more and more interesting.

[AP]

12. I've only read DU this morning (no radio, TV or print)

and I've seen a couple posts looking for confirmation that Kerry leads.

Isn't this getting reported? Is the media ignoring this big shift in momentum?

[Adjoran]

13. If this holds

and Kerry actually wins Iowa, it will be the biggest story of the campaign so far. Nobody EVER gave him a chance there.

This year is full of surprises. NH was supposed to be Kerry's base, but Dean just took the state by storm and led in polling there for months, even taking the lead in Kerry's home state of MA.

We have a strong field, with six candidates who would have a chance in the fall. It is only appropriate that the race is statistically a four-way tie (assuming this poll is accurate, which is of course rather dangerous to assume).

The modern system of proportional representation in primaries makes it harder to win the nomination with 25-30% support. In the old days, if you won a primary with 30%, in most states it was winner-take-all and you could put together a majority of delegates with plurality support. Now, 30% means 30% - and that 70% of the state's delegates go to someone else.

It's becoming an exciting race!

[WilliamPitt]

15. Zogby says so, for what that's worth

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=780

[Moderator]

16. locked

please do not use excessive punctuation in any post. Please feel free to repost this within established guidelines.

Thanks