Guys, new Gallup poll is actually pretty decent!

[Sean Reynolds]

I know it still shows Bush winning, but his lead isn't as big as it was last week, that means Kerry's cutting into it.

Last week's Gallup was B:52, K:44 - or an 8 point Bush lead.

NOW it's B:51, K:46 or a 5 point Bush lead.

3 point loss in ONE week!

Average in the MOE and it's a statistical tie.

[milkyway]

1. link?

[Goldmund]

2. Where did you get these numbers?

[helpisontheway]

3. It is bad because

over 50% Bush wins..

[mzmolly]

4. I'd say that's true if Gallup weren't an outLIER.

:hi:

Additionally, the State polls will shape up mid week, we'll get an idea at that time.

[Sean Reynolds]

7. It won't last.

He'll drop below 50%, watch.

[Zen Democrat]

11. The "Registered Voters" are tied. This is Likely Voters only.

[patcox2]

15. Not bad, shows momentum for Kerry, thats all Polls are good for.

The one thing a poll (provided it is conducted uniformly) can say with almost absolute certainty is whether a candidate's support is growing or falling. And this one is all good news on that front.

[pabloseb]

5. Here's the link

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/25/national.poll/index.html

* is only 2 pts up among registered voters.

[rjbny62]

8. DEAD HEAT

from article

"The two percentage point difference falls within the poll's 3 percentage point margin of error and which constitutes a statistical dead heat."

[Robert Oak]

9. i'd go with registered at this point

"likely" is too funky...so many are voting this year who
normally would blow it off.

[The Magistrate]

6. Indeed, Mr. Reynolds

Even in the wierd little universe constructed by the Gallup organization, the momentum is flowing towards President Kerry....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[spooky3]

10. Have they corrected their oversampling of Rethugs yet?

I didn't see any indication that they have from the linked article, so I assume that means they're still polling 38% R, 31% D, etc.

[Nite Owl]

12. And that would mean that Kerry

is really ahead.

[LittleClarkie]

14. Yes, yes it would

And if anyone has the Gore/Bush numbers from 2000, if Bush was way ahead by this time last election, I'd say that also indicates that Kerry is actually ahead.

[patcox2]

16. 2000 numbers, Bush 51, Gore 39.

Two weeks before the election.

[West Coast Democrat]

13. 2 pt difference in the Registered Voters Number!!

That's a statistical tie!