Internals from Gallup:

[Bush was AWOL]

Copied and pasted from a freeper who obviously is a Gallup subscriber. I assume that because I could not find these results on Gallup's site.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1256482/posts

[WI_DEM]

1. the only region Bush leads is in the south

and also Gallup has Bush leading with young voters--NOT

[michigandem2]

3. young voters with a land line maybe???

[Bush was AWOL]

4. I was going to say that I'd like see where Gallup is placing their calls

Bush with 94% support from Republicans? That seems a little high to me.

[BayStateBoy]

10. You Can Bet Many Repubs Will Not Vote for Bush

They will either stay at home or "quietly" vote for Kerry on Election Day. "Closet Republicans" ... All are welcome!

[West Coast Democrat]

7. They consider "young voters" to be 49 and younger!

18-49 is too large of a demographic group!

[pabloseb]

2. Great internals!!!

Look at GALLUP internals:

* Kerry up by 5 among independents.
* Chimp approval/disapproval is 46/51 among independents.
* Kerry LEADS by 2 among registered voters in up-for-grabs states.

[pabloseb]

5. Only way Bush can be leading...

They're wildly oversampling repugs from Texas and Utah.

[lancdem]

9. How many Repukes were interviewed as part of the sample

compared to Repukes? (I hate to click on freep links.)

[pabloseb]

13. It doesn't mention that fact

Among registered voters, I did the math and they have 39% repugs, 41% dems and 20% indeps.
They hide their likely voter model in every way possible, but I guess it's something like 40/30/30 repugs/dems/indeps.

[lancdem]

17. That's better than some of their other polls

but there aren't enough independents in this one. If Bush loses indys by 5 percent, he's toast. Gore lost them by 3 percent in 2000. That's an 8-point swing.

[MsTryska]

6. geez......

those freepers are full to the brim with comedic genius.

[Dogmudgeon]

8. From all voters, or just Evangelicals/Fundamentalists?

I would tend to believe the results if they just applied to the Born-Again Christian voting segment. A lot of them have started to defect from the Li'l Savior from Texas.

This is looking progressively better for John Kerry; but in the event Bush somehow does win, expect him to leave the White House in leg irons before 2008.

--bkl
380 tons of high-velocity explosive goes missing.
Again?
That trick never works!

[Goldmund]

11. Does anybody know what the relative Rep/Dem party turnout was...

...in 2000?

[NewJeffCT]

12. Dems over Repubs by 4%, I believe

Traditionally, Democrats have outvoted Republicans by 2-5% over the past 4 presidential elections.

[pabloseb]

14. Right. May be even by more this time

given the dems advantage in new voter registrarion.
However, Gallup assumes that repug turnout will be 5% higher than dem turnout. Go figure.

[Thrill]

15. I don't believe anything

Gallup puts out

[high density]

16. Who are the 8% retarted liberals who are saying they'll vote for Bush?

:crazy:

[pabloseb]

18. repugs posing as liberals? n/t

[Czolgosz]

19. I can live with those internals (but Gallup method is still lame).

Those internal numbers explain Gallup's nonsense conclusions. Gallup has Bush killing Kerry in Texas, Utah, Nebraska, etc. and Kerry winning the Democratic reliably states and also winning the toss-up states. Moreover Bush's low approval ratings in the toss up states indicate that he cannot pull this out of his ass at the last minute.

My only concern is that I cannot see how Kerry will break the 400 electoral vote threshold.

[Stephanie]

20. I don't buy this - job approval 51%?

I doubt it!

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

Based on National Adults

Approve Disapprove No opinion
% % %

National Approval Rating

51 46 3