Iowa Predictions Thread

[DoveTurnedHawk]

Two questions, ranking the "Big Four" in Iowa only (Dean, Edwards, Gephardt, Kerry):

1) What order are you rooting for?

2) What order do you think will actually, ultimately shake out at the end of the day (i.e. not the first straw poll, but after all of the movement and reassignment of the people below 15%)?

My answers:

1) Gephardt, Kerry, Dean, Edwards

2) Gephardt, Dean, Kerry, Edwards

DTH

[MoonRiver]

1. Kerry, Gephardt, Edwards, Dean

I'm a little unsure about whether to put Gep or Edwards second, though.

[Melodybe]

3. Dean, Kerry, Edwards, Gephart

No offense to Geppy supprters but the Dean and Kerry people were much more fired up at their rallies. Geppy's rally was snoozeville.

[TexasPatriot]

2. i'm going for the powerball on this one

1) 4 way tie
2) 4 way tie

[RamboLiberal]

4. Here's my prediction

1 - Order I'm rooting for. Dean, Kerry, Edwards, Gephardt

2 - I think it will be Dean (I'm betting his volunteers will make the difference and a lot of new Iowan's will turn up in the caucus), Kerry, Edwards & Gephardt in a near dead heat.

[jmaier]

5. Speaking from a pro-Clark

postion, I'd like to see a scenario that weakens Gov Dean slightly without significantly boosting Kerry or Edwards so I'd prefer to see:

Gephardt, Dean, Kerry, Edwards

What do I think will really happen?

I have no idea! It's Dean, Gephardt & Kerry in pretty much any order or so it seems.

[Sir_Shrek]

6. Not really rooting for an order....

but I think it'll come out: Gephardt, Dean, Kerry, Kucin.

[Don Claybrook]

7. My wishes and predictions

Wish:
Dean, Kerry, Edwards, Gephardt

Prediction:
Dean, Gephardt, Kerry, Edwards

[mzmolly]

11. I think your wish will be what happens

Dean, Kerry, Edwards, Gephardt

However I'd be happy with any scenario that puts Dean in first or second place.

[CMT]

8. my picks

My preference:
Dean, Edwards, Kerry, Gephardt

My prediction:
Dean (29%)
Edwards (21%)
Gephardt (20%)
Kerry (18%)

I think Dean will poll slightly better than the polls are showing. Iowa has a huge anti-war population and his three biggest opponents there all voted for the war. I think they will divide the vote of those Dems who agreed with the Iraqi Resolution. I cannot see how Dean will get much less than 30% of the vote in this heavily dovish Democratic constituency.

I think Edwards will be the surprise because of the generally positive campaign he is running--I think he will come in a close second edging out Gep.

[no name no slogan]

9. Edwards and Kucinich are virtually TIED in IA

Don't be so sure about that order just yet.

DK will finish in the top four. Expect an upset.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

10. Where Did I Say I Was Sure? And I Would LOVE LOVE LOVE DK Placing

in the top 4.

:toast:

DTH

[no name no slogan]

Yeah it's going to be crazy down there...

I only wish I could escape down to IA for this weekend (I'm in MN)-- but I've got some very big committments at home to take care of. :(.

[Killarney]

12. My prediction

I'm rooting for:
Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Gephardt

What I think will happen is:
Dean, Gephardt, Kerry, Edwards

[Padraig18]

13. Dean,Kerry, Gephart, Edwards.

Dean - 35
Kerry - 26
Gephart - 20
Edwards - 17

[Capn Sunshine]

15. That's EXACTLY my call

:thumbsup:

[Padraig18]

16. I'm sorta trading on insider info.

Our internal poll numbers are UP. :)

[DoveTurnedHawk]

19. Internal Polls Are Notorious for Being Skewed in the Poller's Favor (eom)

DTH

[Padraig18]

21. Zogby is notoriously inaccurate, too. n/t

[DoveTurnedHawk]

24. I Totally Agree

I think Zogby is crap. SUSA has a better record than Zogby.

SUSA's polls, btw, have Clark kicking ass. :-)

DTH

[Nederland]

26. Actually

When there are few undecideds, Zogby is extremely accurate. In Iowa unfortunately, a significant number of people are still undecided.

[Padraig18]

27. Exactly.

Dean's internal polls are also more in-depth, and are gauging supporter strength, too. Our numbers are high, in terms of commitment (approx 20% better than Kerry's, the next-highest, according to our poll). :)

[mmonk]

14. I'd rather react after the results

and what they may mean for the Clark camapign.

[asjr]

17. Polls

These polls seem to be changing by the hour. Are the media manipulating the polls and us? I want Dean to win and Kerry/Clark second/third, but I am not going to bet the farm on any outcome. I simply want the one who can beat Bush.

[DancingBear]

18. Perot

in a stunning upset. :)

[elcondor]

20. My answers

Rooting for:

Kerry, Edwards, Gephardt, Dean

Actually:

Gephardt, Dean, Kerry, Edwards (Possibly Gep and Dean reversed.) (I could change my mind in an hour--the polls are shifting constantly it seems . . . I'm kinda getting excited, even though my candidate isn't in the mix! :-) )

[ButterflyBlood]

22. prediction

Dean, Gephardt, Kerry, Edwards

although I suspect Edwards may not get 15%

[stickdog]

23. 1) Dean, Kucinich, Kerry, Edwards

2) Dean, Gephardt, Kerry, Edwards

[David Zephyr]

25. Too Fluid At This Time.

I've watched the Iowa caucuses with great interest since the days of Edmund Muskie and I must say that I have never seen anything like what is going on this election cycle. Nothing.

John Kerry is steadily surging at the last minute in polls and in crowd sizes. This is nothing to sneeze at.

Gephardt is sinking, but still has a very, very strong organization which is perhaps the most critical factor in Iowa, unlike the other primary states. It's how Pat Robertson who had low popular polling numbers won the whole enchilada---with organization, not popularity.

Howard Dean is now wearing the wrath of the entire corporate media, especially CNN, GE (NBC & MSNBC) and Fox who waste no time in exaggerating and spinning stories against him. Dean is also now wearing the wrath of the DLC and generally the entire establishment. But, like Gephardt, Dean has powerfully put together an on-the-ground organization himself...perhaps even more effective. And the Deaniacs are dedicated and will show up regardless of the weather and will stick with their candidate through the entire process. This can not be downplayed in its importance in Iowa.

John Edwards will surprise a lot of people with a good showing, but I'm not so sure that he has the organization to get people to those caucuses and keep them there and keep them loyal throughout the caucus time.

[damnraddem]

28. Dean, Edwards, Kerry, Gephart = wish.

Dean, Kerry, Gephart, Edwards = prediction.

[Redneck Socialist]

29. Dean then...

...Gephardt, Kerry, Edwards

[PAMod]

30. Dean, Gephardt, Kerry, Edwards

I have a hunch that the Iowan's who support Braun & Sharpton & Kucinich generally will go over Dean if their person doesn't make 15%.

The Lieberman people would go to Gep. but that is a small number since he decided to avoid Iowa.

The Clark supporters (that group will be larger than what has been reported, IMO) will be split as each goes over to the remaining candidate that he feels is weakest against Clark the rest of the way.

Some of this is intuition (28 years of experience) and some of this is based on what I have read over the last few weeks.

[goobergunch]

31. My answers

1) Dean, Edwards, Kerry, Gephardt

2) Dean, Gephardt, Kerry, Edwards (but it will be very close)

[Freddie Stubbs]

32. Mine

1. Dean, Edwards, Kerry, Gephardt

2. Dean, Gephardt, Kerry Edwards

[IndianaGreen]

33. My prediction is that a lot of people are going to be very angry...

My prediction is that a lot of people are going to be very angry, regardless of who wins Iowa, and their anger will carry forward to New Hampshire and beyond.

I don't see how any of the candidates can call for, much less achieve, unity after all the smearing and manipulating that has gone on.

You just don't compare opposition to the war to support for terrorism and expect people to welcome you with flowers and dancing in the streets. They won't, and they won't vote either!

[rucky]

34. Something different from NH

if dean doesn't win both, it'll almost be like the two races will cancel themselves out.

what I want & may realistically see: Dean by 3, Kucinich/Kerry/Gep Edwards (+15%)

What we'll probably see: Dean by 3, Gep, Kerry, Edwards (+15%), Kucinich