Any Other Pessimists Out There

[cali]

brave enough to risk being called a freeper troll?

I'd like to believe that the polls are all rigged against Kerry (except the ones that show him ahead)

I'd like to believe that Americans have enough sense to see what a disaster bushco is for this country and the world.

I'd like to believe that the Republicans won't be able to suppress the vote in critical areas.

I don't.

I think the odds are bushco will be elected. What I'm really afraid of is his winning with a so-called mandate.

Yeah, yeah. I'm a troll, a freeper, if I'm not bubbling over with positive prognostications, I should keep it to myself.

[Robbie67]

1. I'm resigned to expect nothing

I'm in wait and see mode

[michigandem2]

3. well I go in with no expectations and end up

pleasantly surprised..I don't know what November 2nd will bring but I am hopeful..and I am an optimistic person anyway...things don't look good for bush..they just don't..in fact they get worse by the day...

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

2. "These are the times that try men's souls"

"Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value." --Thomas Paine

[cali]

31. Thanks Moonbeam

That's a kick ass quote.

[Dalvis]

4. I'm afraid....

...that you may be correct. Not because of what any polls say but because over 30 million people will be voting on electronic machines. That being the case, I don't know how Kerry wins. In a fair election believe that Kerry would win in a landslide. This will not be a fair election. DRE's are the final nail in the coffin of our democracy. By the way, I really hope I'm wrong. I can't tell you the happiness I would feel on election night if Kerry was declared the winner.

[chiburb]

5. "Yeah, yeah. I'm a troll, a freeper"

Well, I don't know about that. But I DO have an opinion about this:
"I should keep it to myself"

On THAT we agree!

(On edit: Don't vanity posts like this belong in the Lounge?)

[Shoeempress]

9. I second you opinion.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

6. Me! I'm very depressed about

Ashlee Simpson's lip synching on SNL. I think
I will kill myself maybe. Or get a root beer float.
Or just cheer the fuck up and look at the bright side
of life like for instance President Kerry, baby!

[rockydem]

20. T-Merton

[A-Schwarzenegger]

28. Gee, who is T-Merton?

Could you give me a quick tepid bio?

[rockydem]

34. priestmonk

Thomas Merton was a Roman Catholic priest, a Trappist monk, a spiritual writer, a poet, and a social activist associated with such socially prominent persons as the Berrigan brothers who protested the Viet Nam war. All of this was done from his "cell" at Gethsemani near Louisville Kentucky. Merton's withdrawal from the "world" was his path to greater involvement with humanity. 

[A-Schwarzenegger]

38. He also played shortstop

for the Happy Trappists, the Inter-League Champions
of the old Lower Lapis League. They used to have
silent brouhahas.

[rockydem]

41. poetmonk

[A-Schwarzenegger]

44. Oh, he would so break out in raucous laughter

at that truly awful poster! He would pee himself laughing!
But keep going and you should find the true Father Louis soon.

[rockydem]

46. laughing

[A-Schwarzenegger]

48. There ya go.

He was a fine photographer. My favorites were of
his little hermit cabin in Kentucky. I hope you
enjoy learning more about him. He is one of my most
favorite people & writers in the whole round world.

[rockydem]

50. departed

[A-Schwarzenegger]

51. Again I hear him chortling at that hideous display.

You might not find him, but it won't hurt you to keep
looking.

[rockydem]

54. remembered

[lancdem]

7. You are entitled to believe whatever you want

but I look at the facts on the ground: Kerry is competitive in many more red states than Gore was in 2000, and he has the resources to go after them. Gore had to give up on NH, OH, NE, AR, CO in order to concentrate on Florida.

[Thrill]

8. You can believe what you want

I've always maintained the key to Kerry wining is voter turnout. If Young people and minorities have high voter turnout he will win. If they don't oh well.....Its as simple as that in my opinion

[Steelangel]

10. well, you can believe whatever you want

that's you. not us. not me.

Kerry will win. Plain and simple.

[Lerkfish]

11. won't call you a troll, but won't let you p!ss in my cheerios, either.

I don't need your negativity. thanks, got other things on my mind, like:

Election Tsunami!

[RobertSeattle]

12. Not really, but..

My own personal spin is:

1. No matter what, Bush gets no "Mandate" unless he win 60% of the EV or 60% of the popular vote.
2. If Bush wins, he finally has to FINALLY deal with his own screw-ups. He can't blame anyone but himself, and it will finally don on people that he is a total failure.
3. There's always the hope that being a lame duck, Bush no longer has to cowtow to the extreme right or religious fundies, and be much more of a moderate like Raygun was in his 2nd term.
4. Democrat Congress in 2006.
5. Hillary President in 2008.

Of course, on the flip side, he make invoke Armegeddon. :evilgrin:

[Monte Carlo]

13. Well what has you so down, then?

You've got to have a reason for being pessimistic above and beyond the norm.

[ibegurpard]

14. You'd be nuts not to be somewhat worried about all of this.

However, what can YOU personally do to combat it all? I would venture to say nothing. Therefore, how does it help YOU to worry about it? If we lose and we lose because of the reasons that you cite then we have to keep fighting. The only other option, lying down and giving up, is just not acceptable.

[irancontra]

15. hmmm

the polls ARE rigged to favor Bush, regardless of whether they show Kerry up or not. Most of the polls are owned and conducted by the same people who skew our media.

The media are total whores & we are aware of this, so don't let the disinformation surprise you.

50% of americans can see thru the BS coming out of the white house. Hopefully about a million more teenagers will also get off their asses.

Republicans WILL suppress the vote. BUT this time we are ready. Kerry is ready. And someone like Kerry doesn't run to lose. I have to believe that. We will fight another court decision.

BUSHCO WILL LOSE in a week and this nightmare will be over. You are not a troll, but you need to turn your pessimism into contributions & GOTV.

[cali]

26. Whoa

Just because I'm not feeling too hopeful, doesn't mean I'm not working on the ground for a Kerry win. I can't tell you how much I want Kerry to win. And frankly I'd rather have my attitude than the irrational exuberance I see so much of around here. If Kerry wins then my happiness (which will know no bounds) is a delightful bonus. If he loses, I don't have as far to crash.

[Silent3]

60. What good would it do to bias polls in favor of Bush?

If Bush were doing really badly, I could understand how trying to make Bush look better could boost morale.

But in a close race, wouldn't a poller who was trying to skew the numbers to help Bush try to get Bush a point or two behind, to energize the get-out-the-vote effort?

I'm hoping there are other factors that make the polls unreliable here -- I think dem voters are more revved up and registered in higher numbers this time around, for one thing. Then there's cell phone-only people (tend to be younger, probably more democratic) not being polled, the way last-minute undecided voters tend to swing to the challenger, etc.

But I still don't get how making Bush look better in the polls would actually help Bush.

[ALago1]

16. People on both sides are worried

There are so many unknowns going into this that anyone who doesn't have a pestering "what-if" in the back of their minds are deluding themselves.

However, there is no way Bush is getting a mandate from this election. I'd put money on it.

[HFishbine]

17. Pessemist or optimist is not the question. The question is...

What are you doing for the next seven days?

[Geek_Girl]

18. Honestly I think the Odds are with us

But anything can happen and I guess we will just have to see what the outcome is.

[chiburb]

19. Jeez... no responses from the OP? Maybe he really WAS

Despondent and decided to end it all?

Nah...

[tomfodw]

21. Unfortunately, I'm pessimistic

No doom and gloom, I don't think it's over, but I really nervous.

I'm no freeper or troll (check out my blog for proof of that), but I don't think we do ourselves any favor by being blind to the possibilities. Kerry may lose. I don't want to accept it, but what I want is immaterial.

[texas1928]

22. I am no way pessimistic...

I am beginning to get this really strong feeling that this one is not going to be close and you will hear the loud thud when all of the Bush* administration's jaws hit the floor, when they find out that the country is fed up with them and on November 2nd they are voted out of office.

[Bucky]

23. It's cool if you're pessimistic. Ignore the jerks who attack you for it

It's getting kind of old listening to all the liberal McCarthyists pile onto anyone who expresses any "unacceptable" emotions about the election. If you don't let your pessimism keep you from helping get out the vote, it's okay to talk about your concerns.

[bubbismith]

35. I didn't see any "jerks" attacking him?

[newyawker99]

64. Hi bubbismith!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Name removed]

69. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[cali]

37. A sincere thanks

Truly, that's half the reason I posted: the bullying attitude. There's a lot of walking and talking in lockstep around here these days. It was much more fun a year or two ago. Stick up for Terri Gross? Get slammed. Suggest that the NY Times is a pretty good paper? Forget it. There's not enough critical thinking going on. It's depressing that we here at DU who supposedly are less willing to divide everything into good/evil than our conservative counterparts, actually do a lot of black and white thinking.

[sangh0]

53. I apolgoze for DU not being "fun" like it used to be

It's all my fault. Blame me, not those innocent posters.

And yes, black-white thinking is "bad", not "good"

Check

[A-Schwarzenegger]

57. Huh?

Havent you only been here since last month?

[cali]

63. No. I used to post here under the name clar n/t

[snowbear]

24. What a frigging DEPRESSING post!

I made it through about the third response and had quite enough thank you. :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke:

[Bridget Burke]

25. So, what's the point of this thread?

Bad things can happen? Gosh, I never knew that!

What are you doing until election day? Working, talking, contributing? Will you even bother to vote, or just assume a fetal position & suck your thumb?

One dispiriting thread & a lowish post count are not enough to make you a troll. But they don't make you anything particularly interesting or useful.

[demokatgurrl]

27. I'm a pessimist by nature so no flame from me, but...

I'm a bit more hopeful than I probably should be. I think Kerry will win the popular vote. I think it is very likely he will win the electoral vote. I think the Repubs will make a very great effort to steal the election BEFORE the votes even get tabulated, by voter intimidation and fraud, and more likely in OH and/or PA than FL.

I am hoping and praying that Kerry or God or someone will do something to stop the theft and if not, I am hoping and praying that we the people do something. Not roll over like 2000.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

29. Yeah. I'm afraid Kerry won't win

in a landslide, but by a mere 10 or 12 EV's.

[demokatgurrl]

30. I'm a pessimist by nature so no flame from me, but...

I'm a bit more hopeful than I probably should be. I think Kerry will win the popular vote. I think it is very likely he will win the electoral vote. I think the Repubs will make a very great effort to steal the election BEFORE the votes even get tabulated, by voter intimidation and fraud, and more likely in OH and/or PA than FL.

I am hoping and praying that Kerry or God or someone will do something to stop the theft and if not, I am hoping and praying that we the people do something. Not roll over like 2000.

[dolstein]

32. I'm not prepared to say Kerry's chances are better than 50-50

In fact, I'm not even sure his chances are that good. But I still think he has a shot with only a week to go, which is better than I expected from Kerry. I think the people who are predicting a Kerry landslide, or who are saying we don't have to worry about Nader are deluding themselves.

[marlakay]

It is easy to get worried if your not busy

even in regular problems in life if we sit around and think of it its easy to spin things in a negative way. Counselors have always said get busy, exercise, meditate, etc.

It helps to do something for the cause then if anything goes wrong you can say you did your personal best. I went on a Run Against Bush on Saturday and it made me feel great.

I plan on doing whatever I can to GOTV. The media is real great on saying that new voters don't usually show up but this is the first time in my 48 years I have seen the youth as fired up as they were during the Nam war. I really believe they will vote and on our side.

No your not a freeper if you say your fears but most of us are trying to keep busy this week thinking positive and figuring out a way to get the most people out to vote. A friend of mine who gives massage told me that her and a lot of other people are spending a few minutes everyday visualizing Kerry as president. I know with the evil Bush admin its easy to see the evil taking over. Its time for us to envision as my friend a brighter day.

[NoBorders]

33. no, not really pessimistic: ahead in the battlegrounds

most polls show we have a good chance of winning on electoral votes. I'm more hopeful now than I was a few weeks ago.

[mzmolly]

36. Allow me to explain why I am quite hopeful.

#1. First time voters are not being polled accurately?
#2. If an incumbant is not pulling above 50% he's typically in trouble. See below
#3. Democrats are motivated as hell - registration is up
#4. Bad news for Bush this week, and Clinton campaigning as well
#5. Undecideds typically break for the challenger in a ratio of about 80% challenger - 20% In"dumb"ant in this case ;)

While most of America is watching the spread in the polls between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry, key strategists in both parties have their eyes on a different set of numbers: Bush's share of the vote, and his job approval, in the final surveys before Election Day.

Analysts watch the incumbent's number in the polls so closely because most voters undecided until the very end of a presidential campaign traditionally break for the challenger. As a result, challengers often run ahead of their final poll results, while incumbents rarely exceed their last poll numbers.

"We know from the history of presidential elections that when a president is polling below 50 percent going into the election, he usually loses," says Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist. "That is true of incumbent office-holders in general. The incumbent usually ends up getting the percentage that he is getting in the final polls -- that's it."

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=10164

[endnote]

39. Go back to freepland TROLL! Or get your Prozac if you're depressed

[diabhal]

40. No - I've bet $900 on Kerry to win!

I'm a true believer. I'm convinced. I bet £500 ($916) on Kerry - this is legal in the UK.

I was nervous a while back but my attitude has changed. I really think he's going to do it - the high turn out in early voting, the fact that there has been no Republican October Surprise as yet, the large number of endorsements from newspapers...

I figured that if the worst happens next Tuesday then I'll be so pissed off that I won't even care that a lost a load of cash :)

[Steelangel]

42. cali, it is pretty obvious that you need to read this two articles...

http://www.moderateindependent.com/v2i19poorpress.htm

http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/10-15b-04.asp

[Steelangel]

66. I repeat: cali, read these articles that I posted.

[nostalgicaboutmyfutr]

43. Nope....eom

[MNEyeDoc]

45. I'm pessimistic...

...but in my own little area, many people (including me) are doing all we can to ensure that our guy gets into office. I will admit that the polls scare me, but I suspect that there may be some subterfuge going on that will really expose the polls for what they really are: ONLY an indication of what people RESPOND to questions, not necessarily what they will do, or what is in their hearts--i.e. "I want Bush to get elected so I will respond to pollers that I want Kerry to get elected, and that way Kerry supporters get overconfident with their large lead." I suspect some people are saying they are going to vote for * so that the RW gets overconfident, and there is a November surprise in the making.

Pessimistic, but staying upbeat...and you folks help!

[ciaobox]

47. You are free to be as negative as you want.

But your doubts do not help Kerry or your own cause.

[Uzybone]

49. Quit cryin in your teacups

the game is on. Now is not the time to look for signs of doom. Get working to make it happen. SHit a week left and some people still are looking for how we will lose this thing.

[Zynx]

52. Why vote then? If we're doomed just stay home.

Pessimists make me sick.

[LittleClarkie]

55. NO!

Landslide!!!!

[johnnyrocket]

56. Momentum is on Kerry's side, and the polls will creep up!!!

You won't be a pessimist by the end of this week and election day.

[bushwakker]

58. i expect to lose

[spanone]

59. Yep keep it to yourself. blocking

[Lorien]

61. Yes, I'm very discouraged

I haven't met a single DUer at my Kerry campaign HQ. When I post a thread with anything like "volunteers needed" or "urgent action needed" I often get only one or two replies, if any. Ashlee Simpson threads, by comparison, have gotten dozens of replies at the very least. Dems have historically been whiners, not activists. I thought this year would be different, but I guess everyone still thinks "someone else will take care of it". If we lose, it's our own damn fault.

[Steelangel]

65. I notice same thing about that as well.

I created some topics on 'action' issues and recieved one or two posts.. or nothing a while ago. That's why I decided to not do that around here anymore.

[wrate]

62. If you are pessimistic then your negative outlook of the situation is

working against you. In a way you could be psyching yourself out. It's much easier to accomplish something if the expected results are positive.

Plus, right now you have 9 days to be positive and hopeful, if Kerry wins you'll feel you've accomplished your goal, if he looses, then you at least did not waste your chance to be happy this 9 days, since you will have to face hell anyway the next 4 years. :)

Does this make sense?

So go ahead and cheer up and work your ass off to get the chimp out of office!

[greekspeak]

67. Try not to be pessimistic about this. The pukes think it'll be 2000 again

I say not so. No fairweather freinds like LIEberman. No lack of momentum to challenge voting fraud. More money to battle in the courts. No four years of fear and poverty in 2000. We are not all Shrub's lapdogs. KERRY is not Shrub's lap dog. THIS IS NOT 2000 ALL OVER AGAIN. You hear that FreepTrolls? THIS IS NOT 2000 ALL OVER AGAIN.

That said, my stomach is like a roller coaster! I guess it is fight or flight syndrome. Too, I cannot understand what people are seeing in that idiot Shrub. Take away their Gawl Ding Kool-Aide.

[Awsi Dooger]

68. It's hardly pessimistic to understand DU does not present full balance

*Our registration edge is not anything close to what DUers believe

*The GOP has made significant advances in GOTV since 2000, when we clobbered them on the ground

*The other side has similar intensity and will show up on Nov.2

*Bush's approval rating hovers slightly above or below 50%

*National polls are hardly insignificant or dismissable, and are much more reliable than state polls

*The critical states are basically 50/50 partisan historically, or lean very slightly one way or another.

*Cell phone only users are an unknown quantity, likely to favor Kerry but not in the percentage DUers like to estimate

*We are not contesting enough states to have any real margin for error

*An incumbent has huge advantages, in terms of shaping the dialogue and benefit of a doubt, especially if his party has been in office only one term. In 9 or 10 elections since 1900, an incumbent has been re-elected in Bush's situation, with his party in office a single term, not multiple

* Kerry may not receive the typical huge slice of the undecideds if people do not like him personally. Late undecideds put great emphasis on likeability and personality, according to Zogby

In short, Bush is a small betting line favorite for a reason. The above points can be viewed as negative. They are accurate. I think Kerry will pull this out if he can boost his favorability numbers in the final week, with positive campaigning and commercials and a boost from Clinton. But I am unlikely to wager on Kerry, and don't estimate his chances at better than 55%, which is what my Excel election model consistently reports.

(on edit: we wouldn't be clutching the Diebold excuse so bravely if there weren't an underlying layer of pessimism)

[nonconformist]

70. Fair election and we win handedly. But I'm pessimistic for other reasons

I have many doubts that the election will be fair and not hung up in courts if Kerry is declared the winner. The chaos that is likely to happen in that event should be something everyone should be as emotionally (and otherwise) prepared for as possible.