It is time everyone admitted the obvious: Zogby's not all that

[troublemaker]

I haven't written this before because Zogby was Kerry's best poll and why deflate the mood? But it is now safe to point out that Zogby completely blew the 2002 mid-terms, has a piss-poor track record in state-wide races, and had Gore winning CA by 1 point in 2000! (His big claim to fame is nailing the 2000 election, but everybody is gonna nail something eventually.)

I say this because looking at Zogby's state tracking poll results I suspect he's using dice. Some are too good for Kerry, some too good for Bush--a bunch of outliers in one direction or another.

I like Zogby and I think he's doing important, innovative work. I'm just starting to think his novel methods might need more road-testing. They generate too many WEIRD polls. (By the way, Free Republic is currently full of Zogby converts saying "the only pollster to get 2000 right has Bush up, and that's all that matters!")

[tritsofme]

1. Look at Zogby's national numbers and listen

cast a weary eye at his state numbers as they are suspect.

I've been saying this for months and it looks like people are finally coming around. :)

[JohnnyCougar]

2. Kerry must have had a decent day today with Zogby

Friday and Saturday were good for Bush. When they drop off, Kerry will have a 3 point lead.

[mzmolly]

3. Zogby says we won't know until the polls from this weekend come back.

;)