"Kerry in the Lead?" by Scott Rasmussen

[louis c]

Scott Rasmussen, in his "Scott's Page" explains the difference between he and Zogby. This is on his Premium Site, so I will give you his explanation word for word, since I can't provide the link.

October 25, 2004---Kerry in the lead?... "Our daily Tracking Poll shows Kerry up by 2 points..the first time he's held the lead since August 23. At the same time Zogby today shows Bush up by 3 points. Many have asked how this difference can be explained?"

"My first assumption is that the difference is temporary. A few weeks ago, the situation was reversed...Zogby had Kerry by 3 and we had Bush by 4. Within a few days the difference disappeared. It will probably do so again because our polls and the Zogby poll have been similar all year."

"Further, it appears that the difference lies in our Saturday samples. Zogby reported a huge day for Bush on Saturday (leading by 7 points). We found a small lead for Kerry on Saturday. That suggests that our combined numbers for Friday and Sunday were very much similar. The Saturday sample will drop out of both Tracking Polls when we report our data for Wednesday."


I will be posting the Rasmussen Tracking Numbers for FLA, Minn, Ohio, Mich, and Penn at about 5:15 EDT. louis c

[pabloseb]

1. Thanks Louis! n/t

[vickie]

2. Louis, Thank you, as always.

[THUNDER HANDS]

3. Saturday is easy to explain

Democrats have lives and go out on Saturdays.

Republicans stay home and plot how to destroy the world.

[Guaranteed]

6. LOL good one

Magic Rat.

I got the picture of Dr. Evil in my mind...you know, I think he IS a Republican...

[HFishbine]

4. As always

Thank you. I appreciate these insights.

[papau]

5. WashPo found K49/48 Trend Also - By using historical Dem % of vote

It appears the WashPO found a trend! - using historical Dem % of the vote

Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters:

Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
10/24/04 48 49 1 * 1 0 1
10/23/04 49 48 1 * 1 * 2
10/22/04 50 46 1 * 1 * 2
10/21/04 50 46 1 * * * 2
10/20/04 51 45 1 * 1 * 2

Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters:

Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
10/24/04 46 48 2 * 1 * 2
10/23/04 49 46 1 * 1 * 3
10/22/04 50 45 2 * 1 * 3
10/21/04 50 44 1 * 1 * 3
10/20/04 51 44 1 * 1 1 3

Right Wrong No
direction track opin.
10/24/04 LV 41 55 4
10/23/04 LV 43 54 4
10/22/04 LV 44 52 4


The tracking poll is based on a rolling three-day sample. About 350 likely voters are polled each day. The Post adjusts, or "weights," each day's randomly selected samples of adults to match the voting-age population percentages by age, sex, race, and education, as reported by the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The Post also adjusts the percentages of self-identified Democrats and Republicans by partially weighting to bring the percentages of those groups to within three percentage points of their proportion of the electorate, as measured by national exit polls of voters in the last three presidential elections.


10/25: 1,631 likely voters; 2,079 self-identified registered voters Oct. 21-24.

10/24: 1,638 likely voters; 2,085 self-identified registered voters Oct. 20-23.

10/23: 1,222 likely voters; 1,575 self-identified registered voters Oct. 20-22.

10/22: 1,238 likely voters; 1,592 self-identified registered voters Oct. 19-21.

10/21: 1,260 likely voters; 1,590 self-identified registered voters Oct. 18-20.

10/20: 1,248 likely voters; 1,586 self-identified registered voters Oct. 17-19.

10/19: 1,237 likely voters; 1,593 self-identified registered voters Oct. 16-18.

10/18: 1,656 likely voters; 2,130 self-identified registered voters Oct. 14-17.

10/17: 1,648 likely voters; 2,115 self-identified registered voters Oct. 13-16.

10/16: 1,203 likely voters; 1,574 self-identified registered voters Oct. 13-15.

[City Lights]

7. Thanks, louis c.

I always look forward to your posts. :yourock:

[louis c]

8. anytime