Rasmussen Battleground for 10/25 (Little Change)

[louis c]

First, the good news. This has been posted all day, but I'll do it again. Rasmussen's 3 day National Tracking Poll has Kerry in the lead for the first time in over two months, 48.4%-46.4%. This is a 2 point gain from yesterday, and nearly a 5 point gain in three days.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

Zogby continues to show Bush in the lead in his 3 day national tracking by 48%-45%.

http://www.zogby.com

Rasmussen's 7 day rolling averages of 5 key battleground states shows very little change from yesterday:

Florida, Tie 48% (this is unchanged for 3 days in a row)

Michigan, Kerry 51%-46% (This is a 1 point Bush gain from yesterday, but the exact figure of 4 days ago)

Minnesota, Bush 48%-46% (This is unchanged for 4 days in a row)

Ohio, Bush 49%-46% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday, but the exact figure from 5 days ago)

Pennsylvania, Kerry 49%-47% (This is a 1 point Bush gain from yesterday, and the closest he's been since 10/17)

[papau]

1. It appears the WashPO found a trend! - using historical Dem % of the vote

It appears the WashPO found a trend! - using historical Dem % of the vote

Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters:

Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
10/24/04 48 49 1 * 1 0 1
10/23/04 49 48 1 * 1 * 2
10/22/04 50 46 1 * 1 * 2
10/21/04 50 46 1 * * * 2
10/20/04 51 45 1 * 1 * 2

Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters:

Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
10/24/04 46 48 2 * 1 * 2
10/23/04 49 46 1 * 1 * 3
10/22/04 50 45 2 * 1 * 3
10/21/04 50 44 1 * 1 * 3
10/20/04 51 44 1 * 1 1 3

Right Wrong No
direction track opin.
10/24/04 LV 41 55 4
10/23/04 LV 43 54 4
10/22/04 LV 44 52 4


The tracking poll is based on a rolling three-day sample. About 350 likely voters are polled each day. The Post adjusts, or "weights," each day's randomly selected samples of adults to match the voting-age population percentages by age, sex, race, and education, as reported by the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The Post also adjusts the percentages of self-identified Democrats and Republicans by partially weighting to bring the percentages of those groups to within three percentage points of their proportion of the electorate, as measured by national exit polls of voters in the last three presidential elections.


10/25: 1,631 likely voters; 2,079 self-identified registered voters Oct. 21-24.

10/24: 1,638 likely voters; 2,085 self-identified registered voters Oct. 20-23.

10/23: 1,222 likely voters; 1,575 self-identified registered voters Oct. 20-22.

10/22: 1,238 likely voters; 1,592 self-identified registered voters Oct. 19-21.

10/21: 1,260 likely voters; 1,590 self-identified registered voters Oct. 18-20.

10/20: 1,248 likely voters; 1,586 self-identified registered voters Oct. 17-19.

10/19: 1,237 likely voters; 1,593 self-identified registered voters Oct. 16-18.

10/18: 1,656 likely voters; 2,130 self-identified registered voters Oct. 14-17.

10/17: 1,648 likely voters; 2,115 self-identified registered voters Oct. 13-16.

10/16: 1,203 likely voters; 1,574 self-identified registered voters Oct. 13-15.

[lancdem]

2. Bush being under 50 percent in every state is good news

[louis c]

5. kick

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. Minnesota has bad numbers

simply no way Bush has a lead there.

[pabloseb]

4. It's a close race

These numbers reflect that. If turnour is high (and early vote suggests it will be), that + GOTV + undecideds breaking against * will help Kerry carry all but may be one of those states.