GOP Nominee in 2008

[liberalpragmatist]

My guess is one of two possibilities for the shell-shocked GOP in 2008. Having lost the Presidency and Senate in 2004 and the House in 2006 (after Kerry and the Democrats run a succesful national campaign against Delay and his minions), the GOP will either:

1) Divide amidst fraticide. A completely divisive primary pits modernizers and reformers against classical anti-tax conservatives, against Southern conservative Christians. The GOP convention either (a) deadlocks and has to pick a "compromise candidate" in the form of Bill Frist or Kay Bailey Hutchison, or (b) winds up nominating Giuliani or Hagel, causing a major party split, with Southern Conservatives walking out, declaring a new "Conservative Party" and nominating Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas. 3-way race, with Kerry winning 55% of the vote to Giuliani/Hagel's 30% to Brownback's 12%.

2) Nominates Gov. Mark Sanford of SC. Loses to Kerry 56-42.

Your predictions?

[dolstein]

1. Bill Frist isn't a "compromise" candidate

I think the far right would be very happy to have him as the GOP nominee.

I could easily imagine a nasty primary campaign between Bill Frist and John McCain.

[Comicstripper]

44. It won't be Frist

I thought it would be, but he doesn't have a lot of support among his own party members.
John McCain will be too old to run, and he won't want to (it would ruin his "above politics" image).
Colin Powell won't run, as he has become disillusioned with the right and is too old.
Giuliani's only position has been MAYOR, he has a lot of personal baggage, and the sentimentality of 9/11 will have faded even more by 2008. The only way this would work is if he replaced Cheney as Vice-President, but I don't think Bush will be re-elected, so this isn't likely.
Hagel is possible, but there is controversy surrounding the fairness of his election to senate.
Mitt Romney is too liberal.
Jeb said no.
I think it'll be a young, moderate-to-conservative NON-SOUTHERN governor (the GOP will want a state that they wouldn't get anyway), with a female running mate (Hutchison?)
My guess:

Kerry/Edwards vs. ??????/Hutchison

[PROGRESSIVE1]

2. For 2008:

Kerry/Edwards: 56%
Giuliani/Romney: 42%

Kerry/Edwards: 59%
Frist/Dole: 40%

Kerry/Edwards: 61%
Delay/Miller: 29%
Ron Paul/Harry Brown: 10%

[AntiCoup2K4]

18. You really think you can find 29% of the population insane enough to vote

for Bugman AND Zell the raving psychopath on the same ticket??

[AIJ Alom]

3. They will nominate McCain-Guliani trying to appeal to the mainstream.

After narrowly avoiding defeat to the freeper backed Delay-Lott ticket for the Republican nomination.

However in the end, with a strong economy reminiscient of the 1990's and America strong and respected in the world, they will end up with only 36% of the popular vote.

[sontec]

4. * 's brother will run...

IMO

[colonel odis]

7. i agree. i think jebby will step up, invoking the glory years

of his big bubba's administration.

while w slowly drinks himself to death in texas roadhouses, the spit ball curdling in the right corner of his mouth.

[MAlibdem]

14. has said that he wont

[4_Legs_Good]

40. Jeb won't run, I dont' think. Won't 2 1TERM PRESIDENCIES kill the dynasty?

What's he gonna campaign on? My father *AND* my brother were failed Presidents?

Pffft!

david

[roguevalley]

5. no matter what happens Nov. 2, the party is going to implode. They

can't maintain themselves. There will be a fight to save themselves from their current cancer.

[Touchdown]

6. Another LOSER!

:evilgrin:

[marlakay]

8. Mc Cain but the religious right won't like it and will stay home!

So Kerry will win again. I think the repubs will split if they lose and it will cause a lot of them to not vote next time.

[LuminousX]

12. McCain is Kerry's Bob Dole

[Gaffey Duck]

43. The Reich hates McCain?

McCain who gets 60 - 100% from the Christian Coalition every year and often gets 0% from the ACLU?

[deadparrot]

9. I think McCain will get the nod in 2008.

[whistle]

10. Does anyone know if the GOP has picked its 2008 presidential....

...candidate already? Leaking that sure would blow Shrub out of the water, I would think. As for my pick, I'm praying for a miracle. No more republican party! Splintered into a thousand pieces.

[DaveinMD]

11. Let's win

this election first.

[deadmessengers]

13. Some likely names:

From the paleocon "moderate" wing of the GOP:

George Pataki (obviously being groomed to run)
Rudy Giuliani (9/11 was the best thing that ever happened to him)
Arnold Schwarzenegger (if they can ram the amendment through)
Dan Quayle (take this to the bank - if he runs, he'll get the nomination)
Colin Powell (it would be the perfect opportunity for him to rebuild his image)
Newt Gingrich (Nixon came back. He can too. Besides, I think after this year, Repugs are going to actually be nostalgic for old Newt.)

From the neocon, theocratic wing:

Condi Rice (She might wait until 2012, though - wouldn't it be interesting to see her against Obama? the shit would hit the fan in that race, for sure)
Bill Frist (Not awfully likely, but he's prominent enough to be mentioned)
Chuck Hagel (All but running already)
Sam Brownback (You mentioned him, and I think he's worth mentioning)
Mitt Romney (He wants it. Bad.)
George Allen (Big name around Washington)
George W. Bush (you think he wouldn't make another run at it? Think again.)
Sean Hannity (he'd just arrogant enough to think he could win.)


Not going to be a factor at all, despite what you might have read elsewhere:

Jeb Bush (said he wasn't running)
John McCain (he'll be 72 in 2008, plus he respects John Kerry)

[NoodleBoy]

17. damnit..

you're more right then me.

edit: except, I just remembered, Romney is a mormon, and alot of the christian fanatics in the Republican base don't consider mormons to be actual christians.

[deadmessengers]

23. True, but...

I think Mormons and maintream Protestants, while they consider themselves to be of completely different faiths, still are willing to work together in a political context simply because they both tend to have similar goals: an American theocracy, for starters.

[NoodleBoy]

26. yes, but an American theocracy dominated by whom?

the protestants in the party wouldn't accept a mormon president who agreed with their views for the same reason they wouldn't accept a catholic president who agreed with their views.

they'd take their votes, but never run one for too high an office.

[LiberalAndProud]

30. I must object to Hagel on the Neo-Con list

He was the ONLY senator on the right side of the aisle who had the BALLS to stand up and tell * to think twice before turning the guns on Iraq.

He has been the ONLY senator on the right side of the aisle who has been honest about the need for the draft to prosecute this war.

Witness: have you noticed how many times he's been cited by both Kerry and Edwards?

We, as democrats, had better hope that he's not the 2008 nominee. He will be hard to beat. He is not a NeoCon. He is a traditional conservative ... (and a carpetbagger, but I've forgiven him for that because he is a good man) and one of the rare politicians who actually has a conscience.

---

OMG I'm asking for trouble by posting this one, I'm sure.

[liberalpragmatist]

34. No I really respect Hagel

You know, if Hagel were President right now, I have to say that he'd probably pretty decent. I'd still support whoever the Democratic nominee would be, but I wouldn't be nearly this desperate to get rid of him as I am of Bush - Hagel's at least sane, pragmatic, and has a conscience.

However, I have my doubts that Hagel could get a Republican nomination. I included him in one of my scenarios, but only in the event that there's a split in the party.

[NoodleBoy]

15. I don't think McCain ever stands a chance of getting the GOP nomination

Anyone running hard against him would just do what W did-- cozy up to the religious fanatics in the party and talk about how much he loves Jeebus. Giuliani wouldn't survive the primaries- all his opponents would call him (gasp!) liberal- and Romney probably would have a hard time shaking off his associations with (gasp!) liberal Massachussets.

My guess-- Santorum/Jeb Bush or Jeb Bush/Santorum. The GOP heavily favors governors, though, so that could eliminate Santorum. Hell, even Rick Perry would have a shot, but I don't know much about him (ie, how much he campaigns on loving Jeebus).

[Pabst Blue Democrat]

16. My guess will be

Guliani either way. He's practically already running. For the sake of discussion, and because speculation is kind of fun, I'll say that we retain the White House in 2008, when a third candidate (Ventura or O'Reilly) splits the right-wing vote.

[Arkana]

47. I dunno

Giuliani will probably run for governor of NY before his presidential run...gotta build up that resume, ya know.

[onenote]

19. giuliani/keyes

Actually, keyes tries for the nomination and forces Giuliani to oppose his crazy ideas, thereby costing Giuliani the evangelical nutjob vote, which goes for Pat Robertson's new third party. Kerry/Edwards wins re-election in a landslide that sweeps in a big Democratic majority in the House and Senate.

onenote

[many a good man]

20. Arnie-Dick in 2008

Kerry/Edwards 41%
Schwarzenegger/Cheney 37%
Bush/Robertson 22%
Nader/Debs 0%

[Anaxamander]

48. Buh? You really think conservatives would be 59% of the voting bloc? NT

[Anakin Skywalker]

21. Can You Smell What the Fundies are Cooking?

LOL The rightwing fundies were even talking of judge roy moore as a candidate! Can you say "theocrazy"?

[snowbear]

22. GoP

If the former Republican Governor of Colorado (Carrs) hadn't passed away, they could run: "Carr Keyes"

[iwantmycountryback]

32. LOL

Good one.

[Czolgosz]

24. It's Bill Frist (and he's no improvement over the current administration)

Neither McCain nor Giuliani would have a prayer in the primaries.

[deadmessengers]

27. Agreed

McCain is enormously popular among the GOP rank-and-file, but he'll be 72 in 2008, and I think his time has passed. I think he knows it, too - he won't run.

Giuliani might run, though, and will get flattened if he does. In his favor? The leadership he showed the world after 9/11. But, let's see what he's got against him: He's pro-choice, pro-gay-rights, twice-divorced, thrice-married, Catholic, from a dark blue state that practically DEFINES liberalism, and is widely known to have committed adultery while holding public office.

Nope - they wouldn't nominate Giuliani in a million years, but it would be awfully fun to watch all the other candidates eat each other in an effort to be the one to trample him first.

[Czolgosz]

46. Also, the best day of Giuliani's political career was one the worst days

in American history. Three years later, Giuliani is still basking in his role as the man who was holding the NYC mayor's office when NYC was attacked and his a good job under difficult and tragic circumstances (I have enough confidence in the strength of humanity that I'd like to believe that 9 out of 10 mayors would have done a good job under those trying circumstances). In 2008, will Giuliani still be milking his role as the NYC mayor's office when NYC was attacked by mentioning 9/11 with every breath? As he heads into the tough primary season during 2007, six years after America's tragedy, will Giuliani still make a routine of boosting his own political fortunes by focusing on 9/11 as the highlight of his political life?

[merbex]

25. I'll play this game on Nov. 3rd -after we've won

[deadmessengers]

28. It's the same game

Thanks to the 22nd Amendment, Shrub couldn't run again even if he did win this year, which he won't. The only name that wouldn't be in contention for the GOP nomination would be his own.

[flaminbats]

31. wise choice..

the BFEE has controlled the Republican Party for over 15 years, why would they hand over control after 2004? If Kerry wins, Chimp will probably be the nominee again in 2008. If Kerry loses, Jeb will probably be their candidate in 2008.

[Dob Bole]

29. Possibles: Frist, Ridge, Guiliani (VP), McCain, a governor

That governor could even be Jeb Bush...but my money's on Bill Frist. He is seen as a "compassionate conservative," which is compromiser within the Republican party.

[delete_bush]

33. The entertainment value alone

of watching this unfold should convince swing voters to vote for Kerry.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

35. Jeb Bush will probably run in 2008, even if he says he's not going to now

You should never take a Bush at his word.

[The Chronicler]

39. It WON'T be Guliani, McCain or Jeb Bush.

It WILL likely be Pataki, Frist, Romney or Owens (CO).

I don't think any of the big names ie McCain, Guliani, Bush will risk their careers by losing to Kerry in '08. McCain might actually be a part of a Kerry admin, as might Hagel.

[ArtVandaley]

36. There will be some party split in 2008 whoever wins in 04

I predict that whichever party loses the 2004 election will end up splitting into two factions. If Bush wins, I predict both will.
Scenarios:

Kerry wins. He does a decent job as President. He'll have to devote so much of his first term to cleaning up Bush's mess that I doubt his re-election would be 100% secure or a landslide by any means.
The republicans will nominate Guliani, but the religious right will vow to not vote for him because of his positions on gay rights and abortion. Therefore a rightwing ticket will form with Santorum at the helm. DeLay will be washed up after the Dems take back the House in 2006, and with Santorum being from a swing state, he would be their man.
Here is how I think it would end up going down:
Kerry- 42 %
Rudy- 33%
Santorum- 22%


Bush wins. The country is thrown into disarray. This situation would be hard to predict because it's impossible to for see how much damage Bush would do in a 2nd term. But I would guess that the republicans would be screwed. Guliani wouldn't be able to win over the moderates because he backed Bush so vigorously, so I would guess McCain would be the moderate nominee. And of course, the religious right would be opposed to him also, which would give birth to a Santorum or some other hardcore social conservative candidacy.
The Democrats would have a golden opportunity, but they could possibly blow it. The DLC could say "let's play this one really safe" and back Joe Lieberman or Evan Bayh. Edwards would be natural front runner at first, but his association with the failed ticket of 2004 would ultimately fail. Russ Feingold could possibly be prompted to run for the progressive wing of the party.
Feingold would win the dem nomination by a nose, as Santorum would win the Republican. This would cause McCain and Lieberman to form a unity ticket, uniting the DLC dems and the moderate Republicans under one party.
At first, the McCain/Joey ticket would attract a lot of voters, but ultimately their association with Bush would turn off nearly all the dems. Most of their votes would come from Santorum voters.
The results would end up something like this:
Feingold/Holbrooke: 41%
McCain/Lieberman: 30%
Santorum/Lott: 26%


Interesting to think about.

[Cats Against Frist]

37. I've been preparing for two years for the nomination of Dr. Demento

Mr. Columbia/HCA, cat-killing wing-nut radical. He is not a compromise candidate -- neither is Hutchinson. The whack-a-moles LOVE both of them.

It will be Frist, though -- no matter what.

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

38. The GOP actually has a potentially pretty strong field for 2008.

The ones I think are good bets for the GOP are:

Chuck Hagel: Solid conservative, but not tied to the neocons, and not too close to the religous right either. A bit of a maveric in his criticism of the Iraq war. Sort of a "spare McCain".

Rudy Giuliani: moderate GOPer who could get alot of crossovers in the general electioon...social liberalism would be drawback in the primarys.

Mitt Romney: Governors seem to do very well in modern presidential races, and Romney is a good sell...social conservatives like him, but he also is able to win in a liberal, democratic place like Mass. Probably a smarter, less smirky version of "W".

'Id like to say Ahnuld...but the Constitution would have to be amended, and that would be tough.

Dropping partisanship, I think Hagel would be the GOPs most realistic bet.

[novadem]

41. Not Hagel or Johnny Mac

Because they will be members of the Kerry cabinet.

I see someone coming from the right. Rick Santorum perhaps.

[Doosh]

42. Proabably Bush again

he'll only be 62, I don't think Chimpy could resist

Kerry/Edwards 51%
Bush/Frist 48%

[shawmut]

45. Mitt Romney

Count on him running.

[WI_DEM]

49. Bush will try again