demon67
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Mon Oct-25-04 05:06 PM
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The polls are tight as can be, the battleground states seem to be trending toward Kerry and the multitude of new voters are surely going to break our way. So why are people still betting more money on Bush than Kerry to win the presidency? Bush continues to lead roughly 58/42 at the Iowa Electronic Exchange (popular vote) and Trade Sports (electoral vote). This seems to make little sense and I am tempted to lay down some serious cash money on Kerry. Am I missing something here or is this a good opportunity to not only win the presidency, but win some extra coin, as well?
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| Anarcho-Socialist
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Mon Oct-25-04 05:08 PM
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| 1. I think you're right; the smart money is on Kerry |
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With the liberal media whoring for Bush*, it means that Kerry is getting some pretty good odds.
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| Randi_Listener
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Mon Oct-25-04 05:09 PM
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| 2. Media whoring & Mational Polling |
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The betting houses don't set the odds based on who they think will will but based on how the money is coming in. They need to make sure they hedge their money pool as well and set the odds accordingly.
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| West Coast Democrat
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Mon Oct-25-04 05:19 PM
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| 3. This site has the odds a lot closer |
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51-49% for Bush*, but that they seem to change their odds with each new Gallup poll. http://www.campaignline.com/oddsmaker/index.cfm?navid=12 |
| David__77
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Mon Oct-25-04 05:20 PM
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I think that the people who would bet money on this race tend to be disproportionately Republican. I would never do such a thing. I could be wrong. They are seeing through partisan glasses.
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| demon67
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Mon Oct-25-04 05:37 PM
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| 5. I think I agree with your theory |
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and that is why I see an arbitrage opportunity. Shouldn't I be profiting on the * supporters' myopia? Shouldn't all of us?
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| AndyTiedye
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Mon Oct-25-04 06:05 PM
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| 6. A lot of people are betting on Bush* because they know the fix is in. |
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Some Buy Bush* Futures to Pay for Relocation Overseas if Bush* "Wins"
Those people are obviously not Bush supporters!
That could be a dangerous strategy if the popular vote goes to the Dems
but the repubs win the Presidency anyway (by hook or by crook),
like they did last time.
I've been throwing whatever extra money I have into Dem campaigns
and Verified Voting.
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Wed Apr 17th 2024, 08:10 PM
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