WATERVILLE -- John Kerry will beat George W. Bush on Nov. 2, and probably by a relatively comfortable margin of 2 or 3 points of the popular vote, resulting in an Electoral College majority.
That was the prediction Sunday night by Thomas E. Mann, a political scientist and senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution, who spoke at Colby College.
"My view is that this election has not changed much in six months -- that we've been operating at a dead heat with very little peaks and valleys," Mann said.
Mann maintains that political polls are a crapshoot for various reasons, including the fact that some people have only cell phones and some only land lines. Some people don't answer phones and some hang up when a pollster calls.
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