What do my Fellow DU'ers think about the current downturn

[Nicholas_J]

Of the stock market and the very large drop in the valuse of the dollar over the last month or so.

During the last 4 years, the Bush administration has never gotten the market up to the highest levels attained during the last years of the Clinton Administration, and right now, the market is lower than the it was in the January 2001, when Bush took Office.

These two factors point to the beginning of another recession and are very similar to the conditions that occured when the tech bubble burst in August/Sept 2000. For the better part of the last year of CLinton's Administration the market was over 11,000 and in July of 2000, all estimates were on for a market over 12,000 by the end of 2000.

There are many who beleive that a part of the downturn in the market was due to anticipation of Bush winning the election because of polls indicating he was in the lead. Current polls show Bush in the lead again, and the markets are responding much as they did in 2000.

A good number of economists are anticipating theat we should be prepared for another recession, of much longer duration than the last one.

[TexasSissy]

1. This SHOULD help us. But I don't see that reflected in the nos.

Unless * numbers would be even higher, if not for that.

Also, oil hit another record high today!

[DBoon]

2. I'm scared

interest rates are at their lowest level since the 1950's. At any other time in the last 30 years, interest rates this low would have resulted in an overheated economy - tight labor markets, rising prices, etc. The fact that economic performance has been so lackluster even with this sort of monetary stimulation means there is something seriously wrong.

[Aunt Anti-bush]

3. I agree

it seems like nothing is adding up and we're headed for serious disaster. Kerry's going to have his work cut out for him.

[DuaneBidoux]

4. The one thing I always thought if Bush won is that at least he will

be the one that sits in what is inevitably coming. At one point it probably could have been avoided, if Bush had kept more of the surplus and distributed the stimulation in the economy to the states and lower and middle classes where it could have really kicked in.

Now with the debt we are running out of amunition. I am seriously worried about a major economic collapse over the next four years, and I have always believed that whoever is in will be blamed (again, the only thing that made me at least a little sanguine over a Shrub victory).

Oil at this level one more month, and gasoline rising (as it likely will right after the election) means another recession. Then what? The only good thing would be that Kerry honestly could say he inherited a mess, unlike Bush, who inherited a surplus. The trade deficit running at 6% of gdp is also very serious. But what could Kerry (or anyone) do about another recession now? How much more money will foreign countries extend us to keep the party going. At least Kerry won't insult those we need to make it.

[PerfectSage]

15. Bush has royally F'ed up the US economy

I agree with you. I'm worried that Bush has dug the hole so deep the Kerry won't be able to get the US out of it. I'm specifically worried that budget & trade deficits will cause a currency crisis that will force the Fed to raise interest rates to the point of economic collapse. Oil in the $50's is a killer for the US economy.

The root problem is that all of Bush's economic and geopolitical policies are causing the US dollar to devalue. That's why the price of gold, oil, euros, the Cdn$, US real estate, commodity metals etc priced in US dollars are rising. Bad news?, if gold breaks out above $430? CRAP. How do I get the chart image to display? Where is says "Enter Ticker:" type in: $gold for gold chart, $wtic for oil chart and $xeu for euro chart.

GOLD CHART

[Robert Oak]

5. twin record deficits, foreign owned debt, 7k drop in gross incomes

dollar dropping like a stone...

outsourcing of jobs...major drop in gross salary...

no replacement, runaway war expenses with no end in sight...

why I got active...I saw the chimp being the most dangerous administration to happen since the 1800's.

[troubleinwinter]

6. I wish there was more discussion here on the topic.

I am not real astute or educated on the market/the dollar/interest rates, so would like to see more yacking about it.

From what I am picking up, there WILL be more talk, because it is apparently becoming a large issue.

I hope that some posts will be directed at explaining some of it to those who don't know the vernacular, rather than the cryptic posts I've seen lately.

[shivaji]

7. SP500 index is 30% higher than lows of 2003,

but it is close to its low for 2004. SP500 index is based
on market valuation of the 500 largest US corporations.

[Nicholas_J]

8. But nowhere ner the market levels during Clinton's

Last year. The Market stayed well above 10,000 through the end of Clintons term, and didnt start going below 10,000 until Bush actially took office

[KharmaTrain]

9. Remember The Energy Manipulation of Spring 2000?

When California all of a sudden couldn't produce enough power and had to spend billions to buy from ENRON and other Texas-based utilities that drove the state into the fiscal mess that brought down Grey Davis.

This is where I mark the start of the non-bubble/dot com recession (which only made things worse)...which as a blatant attempt by Ken Lay and others to put a wrench in the economy by drastically rising energy prices that rippled through the economy, but not soon enough for RoveCo. that couldn't exploit a "Clinton Recession" during the 2000 elections, and they did little to turn things around once they took over.

Right now this economy is in a state of paralysis. I'm an investor that had taken a lot from the markets and nutted it away in mutuals and bonds...I'm betting inflation and rising interest rates will take off as this defecit gets into "cap bursting" levels inflation and long-held back interest rates could rage with another 4 years of this regime.

They're holding their breaths...I'm holding onto my wallet.

[ochazuke]

10. Possible contributor to recent Dow decline

Belief that the election will be close and followed by something like 2000 only worse.

Or maybe they're finally realizing that the economy is doomed.

[secular_warrior]

11. That's scary. We had a recovery ?

:shrug:

The problem with the "new economy" is that the recovery was outsourced. Companies did ramp up production and did see profits go up, but didn't hire American workers. There was no money pumped back into our economy. Plus all of Bush's fear mongering has kept people's confidence low, and the economy runs in part on collective psychology.

[amazona]

12. i think it's a disaster

If they can't even manipulate the market to prop it up right before an election, then we are truly in perilous waters.

The swift destruction of the dollar, once the strongest currency in the world, has broken many dreams. People who talk of fleeing the U.S. if Bush gets in again are dreaming -- they won't be able to afford a prolonged stay (or in many cases, even a brief vacation) in many countries if this goes on much longer.

I guess it's the GOP doing what they do best -- destroying the assets of working Americans who were lured back into the market to invest for their future. We would have been better off putting it in the First Bank of Maxwell House and burying it in the backyard.

:-(

[hansolsen]

13. I agree with the green eye shade theory that if the DOW is above 10,000

Nov 2, Shrub has a good chance of winning. If the DOW is below 10,000 on election day, shrub's ass is grass.

[Nicholas_J]

14. Also the dollar is at al all time low against a number of currencies

And particularly against the Euro which was only at about 1.40 per Euro, while it is now almost 1.90 to the dollar which is causing a lot more dollar dumping and investment in the EuropIn fact you can really tell the value of a currency when it becomes the international currency of choice among international drug smugglers. The situation between the dollar and the euro has almost completely reveresed in just the last 4 years. Even the Loonie is at a high against the dollar and that is a very bad sign.

[hansolsen]

17. Yes, and zero mainstream media coverage of drop in the $. N/T

[DireStrike]

16. Could be that corporations are scared Kerry will be bad for them.

Adjusting their expectations downward...?

[Radio-Active]

18. At least, that is the spin

that they will push.

[Robert Oak]

19. Andy Grove blasted * for flu implies incompetence for bioterror

I think more importantly maybe it's dawning on a few of the great
investor class that possible maybe an American economic collapse
isn't such a good idea...

they are responsible for this record trade deficit and all of the rest
with their short term pocket lining policies.

Makes me wonder two things:

1. is an MBA just a buddy buddy system or
2. are they teaching absolutely insanity in the MBA programs...

or both.

Look at the Japanese, no way in hell would they be this stupid, their
workers are the highest paid in the world, not a chance they would
ship their cutting edge manufacturing out of the country.

US CEO's are short sighted.

[missouri dem]

20. I don't think that most ceo's look at themselves as American

Corporations but rather as Multi National Corporations. They look at the United States as just another third world country to be exploited.

[Gyre]

21. That would be great!

Because they've been screwing America for the last 4 years. They should be scared. They're going to accountable again to the People. Payback's a bitch!

Gyre