10/25 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 300 EV, 90% WIN PROB, 50.92%. BAD ZOGBY.

[TruthIsAll]

Zogby hit us hard today with his latest state polls.

I did NOT include NM in my update because 42-50 MUST be an outlier.

Looks like Zog is in a slump.

Thank goodness for Ras.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[lancdem]

1. Actually, they were worse yesterday

[louis c]

2. Oh, now Ras

is not a scumbag Repuke.

Zogby and Rasmussen try the best they can. This is a difficult election to poll. New Regs, cell phones, tough polling, caller ID, many non-responses.

I use my common sense. People will not go to vote and think this is a good situation that we're in, both home and abroad.

They will vote for change.

[tritsofme]

3. You gotta take the good with the bad

If you use all the data at your disposal the outliers should balance themselves out.

[shelley806]

4. Howard Gardner from Harvard University is on Keith Olberman

right now, saying that the great fluctuation in the polls right now, is due to a much greater undecided population than most polls take into account. Fluctuating polls by definition mean uncommited voters.

[endnote]

7. Not really. It means bad sampling too.

[DuaneBidoux]

5. Yea' I'd hate to be in the poll business right now...

I don't think any of them have a fucking clue what is going on. Even they know everything in the polling is screwed up, but they can't figure out why. There are a few pollsters who really are paid to fuck with the data (Strategic Resources) and Gallup is a weird one. But generally, these "experts" simply are clueless right now.

[TruthIsAll]

6. AM kick

tia